So How Many People Are Ahead Of Your Delivery?

[MrBoylan]

Without discussing P90D vs 90D vs 70D order of fabrication, signature vs founder vs production, take your Sequence Number (if you were ever assigned one) and estimate what your real order of delivery is. What I'm getting at is my belief there are a healthy percentage of people who make up total reservations who put down deposits of $5K or more, who have not put their money at risk by configuring, or who may have cancelled or who are waiting to see car hands on and test drive before committing to their purchase. I can't see modelxtracker as clarifying the number, but I'm assuming that with my reservation number 16xxx from 4/15, I assume that there are between 20-30% of numbers higher than me in order who haven't pulled the commitment trigger, leaving my reservation number somewhere closer to 11,000 to 13,000 range before discussing that Signatures come first before any production 90's or 70's come out. What do y'all think. Give any data to support % of non-committed orders to your comments.

Original rezzie number 4787 (August 2013), invited 11/30. Ordered a loaded 90D on 12/13, confirmed 12/20. I think my "actual" order of delivery is 4872 (plus or minus 2,000). Hundreds if not thousands of P90Ds from reservation holders ahead of and after me will go ahead of me, but I don't believe that even 50% of those who held production model X reservations earlier than mine ordered before I did.

In fact, if I were a gambling man, I would bet that over 12,000 Model X reservation holders in North America (who had not cancelled their orders) had not configured yet when the invitations to the "Meet Model X" events went out earlier this month. But I think the events will have the intended effect and will get another few thousand reservations holders to "poop or get off the pot" as the saying goes. To know her, even in passing, is to love her.

So I'm guessing my early (ish) 90D reservation will be delivered in July and will be the 4872nd Model X off the line.

 

[ohmman]

So I'm guessing my early (ish) 90D reservation will be delivered in July and will be the 4872nd Model X off the line.

I like your logic, and while I agree with your conclusion, I don't enjoy it. I was reservation 80xx (can't remember exactly what), ordered a loaded 90D in early January. If you're looking at July, I'm skipping a summer road trip, or just taking the MS.

Or.. calling Tesla and upgrading to a P90D.

 

[lloyds]

Confirmed today, but what seems to hold things back are the Onyx 22" wheels. Pushes it to "mid 2016" compared to "late Spring" if I ordered the silver 22"s.

 

[dwebb66]

Confirmed today, but what seems to hold things back are the Onyx 22" wheels. Pushes it to "mid 2016" compared to "late Spring" if I ordered the silver 22"s.

Interesting, it did not change the delivery date back when I ordered on Christmas.

 

[Pantoot]

Interesting, it did not change the delivery date back when I ordered on Christmas.

Nor mine when I ordered a week ago.
Time will tell...

 

[MrBoylan]

I like your logic, and while I agree with your conclusion, I don't enjoy it. I was reservation 80xx (can't remember exactly what), ordered a loaded 90D in early January. If you're looking at July, I'm skipping a summer road trip, or just taking the MS.

Or.. calling Tesla and upgrading to a P90D.

P90Ds ordered now will probably deliver in April. And I'm betting you could convince them to change your order without applying that $500 change fee (they'd probably appreciate the extra $20K, as would I, as a TSLA shareholder).

But April's a lot earlier than July. And by "July" I mean sometimes between June and September (Tesla time).

 

[CTemp222]

or.. Calling tesla and upgrading to a p90d.

just do it!