Indeed, TSLA bears have been out in force recently. That includes this message board and some members who previously were bulls. That implies a general mood in which quite a few investors have been cashing in their TSLA shares or selling short. A contrarian would see that as a normal part of a bottoming process leading to stabilization and a buying opportunity.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Indeed, TSLA bears have been out in force recently. That includes this message board and some members who previously were bulls. That implies a general mood in which quite a few investors have been cashing in their TSLA shares or selling short. A contrarian would see that as a normal part of a bottoming process leading to stabilization and a buying opportunity.
I have recently been listening to Ashlee Vance's book on Elon. Between that, autopilot (check out that video of it avoiding a head on collision), and Ludicrous mode (see Motor Trend's write up), I couldn't be more bullish. I don't know how far down we may go in the short term, but we will turn around, barring some major issue out of left field. At this point I am almost goading the bears, I'm so confident. This may take time, but it will turn around...
Amazing to me the difference in sentiment between now and the very first time we breached the $210 level after the Q4 2013 earnings report. For some perspective, Tesla delivered only 6,892 cars in that quarter.
I am seeing rock-bottom sentiment right now, with the stock trading on bone-dry volume in tight consolidation, heading into a catalyst with short interest near a 20-month high. Everything I see screams buying opportunity. My money is where my mouth is.
I am seeing rock-bottom sentiment right now, with the stock trading on bone-dry volume in tight consolidation, heading into a catalyst with short interest near a 20-month high. Everything I see screams buying opportunity. My money is where my mouth is.
I think the main factor driving fears is a miss for 2015 (as in less than 50k cars delivered) and how that would/ill impact TSLA. If Tesla reaffirms the 50k+ delivery target next week I expect TSLA to head back to 250+ territory. 2016 guidance (if any) would also have some effect, obviously, but I agree with whoever said "more meat less sizzle" a few days ago here: projections alone won't help if they guide for sub 50k this year. Not that it impacts mid to long term expectations (on my end at least), but short term it could cause more pain.
Tesla Energy sales though could be an unexpected ace up their sleeve...
Scott Ales
Member
I see the bear short term opportunity but am fully vested in the bull position. And I just don't feel like bailing and playing the hills and valleys lately. In my mind, it's not a question of "if" this company will capitalize on the foundation being built, it's when.
100% bull.
In my industry I was first or very early at:
* Panasonic 800 series hard case cell phone for use at physical auctions, 1987
* Digital auto trading online through 86 speed computer processor and phone line, 1988
* Selling hurricane damaged boats through the use of videos (VHS tapes), 1992
* Mini laptop bought from Japan for mobile use in auto auction lanes with air card, 1995
* Sonar digital paint meter for measuring paint thickness on cars, 1998
* First registered user for Manheim Online, 2000
In every case, the rest of the pack took years if not decades to adopt these very beneficial tools. You can't begin to believe how many discussions (and for how long) I've had with serious 20-50 year car guys about Tesla. They just can't understand where it's at and where it's going.
I can't believe they can't get it!
It is exhausting sometimes to see the path so clearly and be around others that don't or won't.
Keep the Bull head down and "charging" folks!
100% bull.
In my industry I was first or very early at:
* Panasonic 800 series hard case cell phone for use at physical auctions, 1987
* Digital auto trading online through 86 speed computer processor and phone line, 1988
* Selling hurricane damaged boats through the use of videos (VHS tapes), 1992
* Mini laptop bought from Japan for mobile use in auto auction lanes with air card, 1995
* Sonar digital paint meter for measuring paint thickness on cars, 1998
* First registered user for Manheim Online, 2000
In every case, the rest of the pack took years if not decades to adopt these very beneficial tools. You can't begin to believe how many discussions (and for how long) I've had with serious 20-50 year car guys about Tesla. They just can't understand where it's at and where it's going.
I can't believe they can't get it!
It is exhausting sometimes to see the path so clearly and be around others that don't or won't.
Keep the Bull head down and "charging" folks!
Gerasimental
Member
Heh, just broke the alternator belt on my ICE about 20 minutes ago so I'll be needing some charging. Like I didn't already want an EV enough. (can't afford one, any, before you ask).
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Better tune that crystal ball, unless the stock takes a massive dive in the next ten minutes.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Agreed. Based on evidence of MX sig production and delivery estimates from DS to owners, I think tesla will maintain guidance.
To put it another way, if tesla were to lower guidance again, stock will take another hit and Institutional investors wouldn't be pleased. Would make raising new capital for Model 3 difficult in the near term.
I had the same discussion over Netflix a few years ago, and the ceo did some serious screw ups
along the way . Eventually it overcame all. Netflix dropped from over 300 to 50, and now it trades at over
700 pre split .
jesselivenomore
Member
You are talking to the wrong people. No matter how many of the 20-50 year car guys you convince, there will be 10 more that are stuck in their ways. That is because they are the generation of the past, meanwhile the generation of the future is already on board.
Millennials Find Elon Musk More Admirable Than Gandhi, Steve Jobs And Barack Obama - Yahoo Finance
Elon Musk is the hero that they look up to, while Tesla is the car they aspire to own. That is what makes Tesla's future bright.
From Panasonics earnings call Q&A (mentioned earlier, but here is my transcript)
(the translator had a problem understanding Roadster
)
Panasonic Corporation
(20 minutes in)
(the translator had a problem understanding Roadster
)Panasonic Corporation
(20 minutes in)
doggusfluffy
Closed
If Tesla keeps 50K, next year's projection matters. If they don't, future projection won't matter much since they can project whatever and street won't value it based on two years record.
I think Tesla will lower projection and put a range of 47-50K by showing difficulties with Model X ramp. If you count MX ramp is delayed by a month, you are looking at around 3000 MX (800/week exit as per Q2 report) not included. Conclusive evidence are hard to look around for MS filling that gap.
Interestingly, most millennials can't yet afford current Tesla models or to invest heavily in the stock market. As their financial positions improve, a great many of them will likely be buying Tesla cars and TSLA shares. For some that should be rather soon, while others will need more time.
As you note, many older folks just don't get it. I'm well aware of that from speaking with my contemporaries, as I'll be turning seventy in a few weeks. I'm just an outlier who continues to look forward.
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