Search results

Phew it's been awhile. Congrats guys.

Shorts reaction: Q1 18 - "Tesla can't produce the Model 3!" Q2 18, Model 3 starts to ramp - "Tesla can't make a profit on the Model 3!" Q3 18, Tesla is profitable - "This is as good as it will ever get. Only profitable because pent up Performance demand and now ASP and margin will go down...

I believe the reason why ghg/cafe credits aren't broken out, just like they haven't been in prior quarters, is because they scale with deliveries and are part of a long term contract. So that should be viewed as normal part of business, as opposed to Zev credits which fluctuate quarter to...

I've been using Ichimoku Cloud breakout + Bollinger break combo as an entry for TSLA for awhile now. It's worked well as an indicator for TSLA over the years, and even when it fails it usually generates enough upside cushion to exit comfortably. Had a small position going in, but really started...

Elon Musk on Twitter "Def no forced sales. Hope all shareholders remain. Will be way smoother & less disruptive as a private company. Ends negative propaganda from shorts." Well that's one way to resolve this issue.

Thanks for the offer! But its ok, I'll get it. Editing now.

That was my original intent with the placeholders but seems I can't edit the OP anymore.

Profit and Beyond As long as Tesla depends on access to capital to survive, it will have certain characteristics of a financial company - venerable to short sellers and market sentiment.(and often times market sentiment caused by short sellers) This was part of the downfall for Solarcity...

Self-fulfilling prophecy This is not the case for every company. If McDonalds were shut off from the debt markets and capital markets, it would not matter because they have a sizable cash horde and positive cash flow. No matter the amount of fear generated in the markets, there is no "bank" to...

Moody's Hopefully by now you have read the transcript linked in the OP. If so, you understand the depth that these people will go to. You understand that analyst reports are circulated before they come out for them to front run. You understand the rating agencies are mentioned by name. But you...

I'll update later. Feel bad that I haven't. I've been in contact through private message with a couple of TMCers the last few months. They can chime in here in the meantime if they want.

Short interest Tesla currently has close to 40 million shares or over $12 billion dollars betting against it. It is easy to conflate this with the litany of Tesla bears all over social media, twitter, seeking alpha, etc. Don't. These people may be responsible for 99% of the noise, but I highly...

Solarcity First we have to talk about Solarcity since that is where Chanos and some of these same bad actors started here. I know Einhorn is at least another hedge fund mogul who is also short Tesla. Solarcity was in essence a financial company. They were an arbitrage firm that profited from...

First let me say that I don't have anything against short selling in general. People bet on stocks going up, they should be allowed to bet on stocks going down. Personally, I do both and I don't think it makes me a bad person. Short "squeezes" also do not benefit long term shareholders. If every...

Sorry guys for the lack of updates, but honestly since we put in that bearish engulfing on the weekly mentioned above(and shown below) we have been range bound with a bearish bias as expected, without much else to say. That's changed now, as we put in a mirror bullish pattern last week, with...

Not much beyond my prior post. The delivery number was in line and Model 3 below expectations, which meant a follow through of the bearish technicals(after an initial oversold bounce). Unless something very positive comes out of ER, we should get to at least the low 300s, which was the prior low...

Last week's weekly candle was a dark cloud cover/bearish engulfing, this was made worse after rejecting the all time highs. Based on technicals alone this is a no touch here and a sell below 340. However, keep in mind that delivery numbers come out in a week and a decent sized gap from that can...

DITM Leaps, to open up buying power for other positions. Its the same exposure as buying more shares or going on margin. The drawback is the lack of liquidity in case I want to quickly trade it, taking profit or sell. I mitigate that by shorting the stock to hedge instead of exiting the Leaps.

Yes our first attempt at breaking out failed after macros became a drag, actually starting the day after I mentioned hedging for macros. Good news is that so far we have not broken any key supports. The 345 I came up with was based on both the tenkan(blue line) on the weekly and kijun(red line)...

I am back in TSLA fully and as long as it stays above 345 it looks good, nothing has changed there. However, full disclosure, I am currently short some nasdaq and emini futures again. I wouldn't read too much into that(besides shortterm), I am long/short indices at most times to hedge or skew my...

All's good! Just not as much free time for TMC, but I'll try to update during inflection points that I see.

I posted in this thread in June when I deleveraged and hedged my entire position around $370s. This time up I doubt we stop there again given the building momentum, but obviously watch for price action around those highs in case any signs of weakness. Beyond that the next level to watch is $450...

For sure. But mostly I am bullish off the weekly cloud and candle: This week we launched off of the kijun(red line) which also served as support in early July, and broke above the tenkan(blue line) which also served as resistence last week.(this also coincides with other resistences on the...

Keeping it brief: Break above $345 represent most attractive entry since original $280 breakout buy/leverage point. Reason for $345 is not only 50 sma but also a confluence of resistences on different Ichimoku timeframes. Also can't just look at price levels, more important is price action and...

My thoughts on those things are pretty subjective. I form a long term directional bias based on where I think the company is going, which hasn't changed after the reveal. But how to execute on this directional bias I try to use technicals to determine entry, exit, leverage points etc. Based on...

Macro scare over for now. Continuing to re-accumulate, small. Not going to get really re-leveraged until around $345+ which technically represents "coast is clear" for me. I don't mind missing the "bottom" for going allin(though I did start buying at 310, small), I am always going to miss that...

Doubt it will be a V bottom so watch for more turbulence, but starting to nibble back in today. I'm actually on a family vacation right now so sorry can't elaborate.

ST is about 2 weeks, MT 2 months. So best case a quick 2 week pullback, worst case more extended 2 month decline(maybe even close to a nominal "bear market", -15-20%). Well, technically best case is I'm just wrong and we go back up tomorrow.

Revisiting this thread since we hit the initial target of 380. Like I said before, just because we've reached the measured move, does not necessarily mean the move is over. We'd have to examine the current price action to determine if that is the case. Looking at TSLA on its own, it does not...

1. You are out of your mind. I can literally draw trendlines on any stock you can name, 5 min, 1hr, 4hr, daily, weekly.. any timeframe. That doesn't mean there is some nefarious algo secretly controlling everything. I can pull up a chart from 1930s, 40s, 50s when there were no bots or computers...

Yes, the question was rhetorical. I just saw this interview on Friday that summarizes my thoughts well(minus the skepticism). Is Tesla overvalued? ‘Dean of Valuation’ Damodaran weighs in There are two sides of the equation when it comes to valuation: the revenue/growth(of revenue) side, and...

And this would affect valuation by increasing *blank*.

On the earnings call there was a question about the $700B market cap that Elon talked about before and whether he still believes that is achievable. Elon's answer: "The set of steps necessary to achieve that outcome seems pretty obvious. And heavily involves Tesla getting incredibly good at the...

Short action:

Thanks MitchJi but admittedly I was doing a poor job of articulating my point. Really there is no theory, I am just regurgitating what Elon/Tesla has said and putting 1 + 1 together. Tesla is committing more engineers and efforts to designing the "machine and builds the machine" than designing...

For sure less than 15%. And for bull/bear market I meant for TSLA individually. In 2016 even though the broader markets was still bullish, TSLA was in its own bear market, where "good" news like Q3 was interpreted with high skepticism. As for broader markets, on Thursday we will see if there...

To clarify, I am not expecting exactly a 2013esque 1000% rally. The short interest then was substantially higher(50%?), and also the narrative then was going from "going bankrupt" to "profitable and viable". Even a massive earnings beat now would not present that kind of shock to the market...

Shortsville, NY (14548) 10-Day Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com Looks like chance of precipitation post May 3 is HIGH, with no let up in sight.

First of all, thank you for all your work re: Q1 numbers, nci etc. It has been very helpful. As for market reaction, that depends not only on the quality of the numbers, but also on the current state of the market. For 2013 Q1, earnings also had dubious quality because they were only...

Surprise: 30% of Millenials have heard of Tesla.

How's that bear hammer looking?

We'll be doing it on Saturday 8am PT for those interested.

The Case for a Tesla-GM Merger Just threw up a little in my mouth.

I don't use EW because the way you draw it can be too subjective. When it doesn't work out you can always justify it as being in a different wave or count. For my trading I need clear cut right and wrongs in order to cut my losses. I don't necessarily disagree that this could be a fakeout. I...

In light of TSLA's all time high, $300+ SP, surpassing Ford's market cap and GM's according to Google, the amount of valuation talk has been dizzying. The unit sale comparison to legacy automakers by the bears is and has been lazy. But even the bulls' justification that TSLA is a growth stock...

White House explores two new tax ideas — a value-added tax and carbon tax — as leading proposal to raise revenue falters Elon has been pushing for a carbon tax.

No problem, didn't really mean to reply to you. Was just pointing it out so that others who are less familiar with technicals don't get duped.

I was replying to the random "downtrend" line in that post. Just because something has been going up or down for a few days does not make it a trend. (which implies a continuation of that move) Sure. If predicting $10 moves within hours accuracy for you was at all replicable in the long run...

Wait, what happened to this "trend"line? Protip: Just because you can draw random lines with MS paint, does not make it a "trend". Nor does it mean the world is out to manipulate the stock whenever it is up. Occam's razor - maybe people just want to buy it?

edit: wrong thread