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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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I'll just post this here. A good article, with excellent comments from readers about the $25,000 incentive business owners who buy a Model X buyers are probably eligible for. One of the commenters points out that even if the deduction limit remains at $25,000 for one year , a business owner could depreciate the vehicle over 5 years, allowing them to account for a $25,000 deduction each year, should the business choose to buy 5 Model X.

About time the Hummer incentive is used for good instead of evil.
:cool:

Any accountants care to shed some "light" on the "heavy vehicle" deduction?


Tesla Model X qualifies for $25,000 tax break

In my opinion, one comment from Elon about the backlog for the Model X, where he sees demand currently and 12 months from now, or an announcement about Tesla's partners injecting more capital into Tesla, and this decline will be reversed. $220 was the bottom of the channel. A relief rally tomorrow seems likely. My only concern is that any broad market weakness could bring Tesla below $220.

Apple is usually a good measure of institutional conviction in a broad market rally, and Apple has been weak for the past week, for no reason. :confused:

Still waiting for confirmation or any information about the rumor/chatter someone posted about a "big name" starting a position, assuming it turns out to be more than a rumor.
 
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I have zero information. Sorry. I only provided 1400 as an example.

Bottom line is I'd like to see Tesla provide evidence that Q4 production ramp is underway.

I have mixed opinions on this. The current selloff is obviously very painful and I have been watching a very significant percentage of my net worth decline since last week. But unless there is an actual crisis, I think it sets a dangerous precedent to have Elon step in too frequently in direct response to analysts and pundits. Management needs to focus on executing and not letting the tail wag the dog in this way. There is a time for those sorts of updates and that is the Q3 letter / conference call.

Until then, I see nothing but a buying opportunity for those with the stomach / means.
 
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Just unloaded the rest of the cash I had in my account on more TSLA shares. Too many catalysts over the next 6-9 months to not love these price movements. I honestly think all of these articles are trying to hold TSLA to cheap prices so they can buy more before major positives come from the company (Powerwall deliveries, Model X ramp, M3 unveiling, GF opening, positive Cash Flow, etc.) All of these things are evident, just a matter of when.

Side note: I can't wait until the general public knows about Model 3 because I read at least 5-10 ignorant comments per day on how Tesla's only goal is to be a toy for rich people. Never seen a more misunderstood CEO or company.
 
Just unloaded the rest of the cash I had in my account on more TSLA shares. Too many catalysts over the next 6-9 months to not love these price movements. I honestly think all of these articles are trying to hold TSLA to cheap prices so they can buy more before major positives come from the company (Powerwall deliveries, Model X ramp, M3 unveiling, GF opening, positive Cash Flow, etc.) All of these things are evident, just a matter of when.

Side note: I can't wait until the general public knows about Model 3 because I read at least 5-10 ignorant comments per day on how Tesla's only goal is to be a toy for rich people. Never seen a more misunderstood CEO or company.

This is sort of why I try to steer people away from the temptation of illusive short-term gains.

Unless one can really get out in front of the news and quarterly financial reports on a big event (like the infamous Q1 2013 profit announcement), it can be quite difficult to win against the big players, who are usually financial institutions with access to a lot of computing power and low-latency connections.

Based on much of the angst today, I think most people would be better off just buying some shares and holding them for 5-7 years.
 
Just unloaded the rest of the cash I had in my account on more TSLA shares. Too many catalysts over the next 6-9 months to not love these price movements. I honestly think all of these articles are trying to hold TSLA to cheap prices so they can buy more before major positives come from the company (Powerwall deliveries, Model X ramp, M3 unveiling, GF opening, positive Cash Flow, etc.) All of these things are evident, just a matter of when.

Side note: I can't wait until the general public knows about Model 3 because I read at least 5-10 ignorant comments per day on how Tesla's only goal is to be a toy for rich people. Never seen a more misunderstood CEO or company.

I already own a quite large collection of core TSLA that I bought in very early 2013, these shares I am holding until Model 3 is a reality. . But! I also goof around with a few hundred trading shares. I, like you, went all in today with my "fun money", for all the same reasons as you. This is some of my SEP money so there are no tax considerations if I sell in and out.

About your comments about Tesla being thought of as only "rich toys". I own a VW TDI as well. On the TDI forums, my signature shows "2010 TDI, 2013 Tesla S". I am endlessly verbally assaulted on the TDI forum for owning Tesla. You would think the TDI folks would be a bit more intelligent.
 
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What is the situation with SuperCharger threads right now? They're all buried within individual regional sub-forums right? Can there please be another GLOBAL SpC thread in the investors, or at least Tesla Motors, section? I think this was discussed before and it was decided that breaking the thread into regional ones was preferred, but maybe people shoudl have a say on if they like the change. I for one miss that thread.
There are two philosophies of running a board: have everything in one giant thread, or have things in well-ordered threads. TMC uses the second approach.

There are dozens of supercharger sites under development at any one time, and having a single thread to track all of them is, in our judgment, unworkable. You can find all the threads easily, though, by following the instructions here: Link to Supercharger Threads

- - - Updated - - -

Audie spoils you, but even still he gave two warnings and the thread still ran over. I've moved 31 posts discussing the impact of charging times and the supercharger network on EV demand to Demand drivers for Tesla / EVs
 
Bwahahahaha....."a couple of software engineers"! Oh that is precious.
Actually, I can easily see that happening. Some poor software guys are under immense pressure (no diesel pun intended) to get this new engine the board loves to meet the requirements. Late one night one says to the other, "Hey, why don't we just hack the emissions test for now, and we'll fix it later because there's lots of time before we actually ship!". So they do, and they report to their manager they've finally gotten it to work. The manager isn't technical enough to know they're BSing, and he reports up the chain the new engine is a go. They meet the ship date, everyone is happy. And it all starts to snowball from there. Marketing spins up, everyone believes the test results (and why shouldn't they?), maybe even the software guys get a bonus, promotion, or technical award for meeting the tough challenge of decent emissions and good power and good economy. The company starts using that engine everywhere, because on paper it's better than all the others. No one realizes it's just a hack. And it never does get fixed.

It really does seem plausible to me that the hack really did originate with some engineers and management wasn't aware of it for quite some time, if ever.
 
Actually, I can easily see that happening. Some poor software guys are under immense pressure (no diesel pun intended) to get this new engine the board loves to meet the requirements. Late one night one says to the other, "Hey, why don't we just hack the emissions test for now, and we'll fix it later because there's lots of time before we actually ship!". So they do, and they report to their manager they've finally gotten it to work. The manager isn't technical enough to know they're BSing, and he reports up the chain the new engine is a go. They meet the ship date, everyone is happy. And it all starts to snowball from there. Marketing spins up, everyone believes the test results (and why shouldn't they?), maybe even the software guys get a bonus, promotion, or technical award for meeting the tough challenge of decent emissions and good power and good economy. The company starts using that engine everywhere, because on paper it's better than all the others. No one realizes it's just a hack. And it never does get fixed.

It really does seem plausible to me that the hack really did originate with some engineers and management wasn't aware of it for quite some time, if ever.
VW scandal: Company warned over test cheating years ago - BBC News

Citing unidentified sources, Bild said Bosch had warned Volkswagen as early as 2007 that its software should only be used in company tests and not for normal driving.
 
Actually, I can easily see that happening. Some poor software guys are under immense pressure (no diesel pun intended) to get this new engine the board loves to meet the requirements. Late one night one says to the other, "Hey, why don't we just hack the emissions test for now, and we'll fix it later because there's lots of time before we actually ship!". So they do, and they report to their manager they've finally gotten it to work. The manager isn't technical enough to know they're BSing, and he reports up the chain the new engine is a go. They meet the ship date, everyone is happy. And it all starts to snowball from there. Marketing spins up, everyone believes the test results (and why shouldn't they?), maybe even the software guys get a bonus, promotion, or technical award for meeting the tough challenge of decent emissions and good power and good economy. The company starts using that engine everywhere, because on paper it's better than all the others. No one realizes it's just a hack. And it never does get fixed.

It really does seem plausible to me that the hack really did originate with some engineers and management wasn't aware of it for quite some time, if ever.

If this is really the kind of code control VW has, then it is in deeper trouble than any of us can imagine. Consider that safety risks are inherent in every peice of operational code. If they do not have proper code specification, testing, documentation, review and autorization, how they know that the cars are safe for use on public roads. How exactly would VW defend itself in a liability case where code was potentially at fault? If they have weak controls around code, they put the public at risk and really have little legal cover. Shareholders should be outraged at this.

Additionally if VW does have weak code controls, this could become a regulatory problem for all automakers including Tesla. Basically, VW could be inviting regulators to require auditable controls around code. This is pretty much what has happened to banking under Dodd-Frank. Trust me, automakers do not want to provoke regulatory oversight around every peice of code they use.
 
It's about time Elon called out the bloggers and journalists who are yapping about the rumored Apple Car. I just checked on Twitter, and there are too many Tweets and Retweets supporting Elon's statement for me to count. This is a good thing for Tesla and for Apple.

It would not make sense for Apple to produce a car.

Anyone saying Apple will product a car in 2019 may as well claim they have heard rumors that Apple will produce a jet ski by 2025, or a time machine by 2030. It wouldn't surprise me if Apple is working on a better battery, or on a light weight material for vehicles, that would significantly reduce the cost of Electric Vehicles, and allow for better vehicles. However, it seems very unlikely that Apple will ever sell an "Apple Car".
 
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