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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yep. Like the humor.
My view is Elon needs to provide some positive updates on production (overall and MX). This will help the short-term view
examples:
1). We are ramping Q4 production. Last week we produced 1400 cars. Our best week ever
2). We are working closely with suppliers (windows and seats). We are confident they can meet our production needs in Q4. He's talked publicly before about these suppliers so an update would be great
Recent price action has me worried/not worried and some may consider me a perma-bull, but here's my justification as to why I'd be a buyer in the short term (especially now).
Fundamentally, the share price action doesn't make sense as we are simply drawing conclusions with little evidence as to what kind of production issues Tesla is running into. None of which is confirmed. I'm not worried because if there is a delay in X deliveries, Tesla can offset with Model S deliveries which got a demand bump.
Technically speaking, we're in oversold territory however way you slice it. In addition, we're also looking at a period of time where money managers want to pump up their results for the year to offset their losers. Why not book profits on Tesla that has a high % gain to make your reports look better. This is also around the time where people are evaluated and bonuses are based on performance (a little selfishness going on here). Volume seems to be above average as well.
Sentimentally we are on the downturn. It's important to not mix up the feelings you have when seeing your account go negative versus what the people are saying on things such as sqwak box and the press. It's kind of a negative feedback loop because you'll run into the trap of selling late and buying too early. Look at your time horizon. The next play is going to be really earnings and keeping track of FY15 and more importantly preliminary 2016 guidance.
Tesla is in the growth stage of the company curve. They've added a model line, a new line of business, are expanding staff rapidly, and laying down the infrastructure that will be the foundation for the next phase of long term growth. Tillburg, Gigafactory, etc.
I brought it up before and I'll bring it up again. The secondary pricing at $242, the underwriters are not stupid and neither are their clients. This temporary SP depression is exactly that: temporary. There's a reason why that offer got filled.
Fundamentally, the share price action doesn't make sense as we are simply drawing conclusions with little evidence as to what kind of production issues Tesla is running into. None of which is confirmed. I'm not worried because if there is a delay in X deliveries, Tesla can offset with Model S deliveries which got a demand bump.
Technically speaking, we're in oversold territory however way you slice it. In addition, we're also looking at a period of time where money managers want to pump up their results for the year to offset their losers. Why not book profits on Tesla that has a high % gain to make your reports look better. This is also around the time where people are evaluated and bonuses are based on performance (a little selfishness going on here). Volume seems to be above average as well.
Sentimentally we are on the downturn. It's important to not mix up the feelings you have when seeing your account go negative versus what the people are saying on things such as sqwak box and the press. It's kind of a negative feedback loop because you'll run into the trap of selling late and buying too early. Look at your time horizon. The next play is going to be really earnings and keeping track of FY15 and more importantly preliminary 2016 guidance.
Tesla is in the growth stage of the company curve. They've added a model line, a new line of business, are expanding staff rapidly, and laying down the infrastructure that will be the foundation for the next phase of long term growth. Tillburg, Gigafactory, etc.
I brought it up before and I'll bring it up again. The secondary pricing at $242, the underwriters are not stupid and neither are their clients. This temporary SP depression is exactly that: temporary. There's a reason why that offer got filled.
Moderator Interjection
Let's keep the discussion primarily focused on short-term price movements. There are other sub-forums in which to discuss distances between SuperChargers and other, non-market-related issues.
Let's keep the discussion primarily focused on short-term price movements. There are other sub-forums in which to discuss distances between SuperChargers and other, non-market-related issues.
Gerasimental
Member
What is the situation with SuperCharger threads right now? They're all buried within individual regional sub-forums right? Can there please be another GLOBAL SpC thread in the investors, or at least Tesla Motors, section? I think this was discussed before and it was decided that breaking the thread into regional ones was preferred, but maybe people shoudl have a say on if they like the change. I for one miss that thread.
Elon is generally good at debunking wrong information as soon as possible. With respect to MX production issues, and I see that along with meeting Q4 numbers + 2015 numbers, as the real problem. I am afraid Elon may not have a precise answer now and when he does, there are more chances he revises down the projection.
doggusfluffy
Closed
hockeythug
Active Member
was 247 yesterday. yikes.
I agree tho, its been working its way towards MP on fridays, like clockwork.
I wish to respond to this post, but not in this thread. It doesn't belong in short term trading. Once it is moved I will respond.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Yikes (Current price 280.00 3.95)! I'm in a similar situation. About 70% of my options are Jan 16, a mostly 230's and 240's with a couple of 250's and 260's. I think if by the early Jan announcement, they can hit 50k, with even as few as 3-4 weeks of 1,200-1,600 MX (not likely?), that would be a big help.
I might be forced to make a decision if there is a small pre-er spike or a small post-er spike.
It was obvious to me that EM was trying to answer the question, without revealing their pack costs. But I mistakenly jumped to the conclusion that he was lying. They have been producing similar car packs for years, how could he not know? And how does he get from a "relatively low margin" now to "somewhere around 20%" with the GF, when by the 2017 the GF is going to reduce pack prices by at least 30%?
I now think he was telling the truth, and referring to the cost of the enclosure. They are different than, and more complex than than the car packs, and they undoubtedly plan to set up an optimized assembly line, when they move to the GF. So if we assume that they could make a total profit of "around 20%" just by building those products, on an optimized assembly line in Fremont (without including the other GF related price reductions), if they maintain their current prices by 2017 they would have margins, of "around" 50%.
If you disagree with that assumption, can you think of a reason (I can't) that doesn't require EM to have lied?
I bit the bullet today and sold my remaining Dec15 190 calls and then bought a somewhat smaller number of Jan17 180s in order to derisk the short term. Would be delighted if I am wrong to do this, but the current environment allows for such trades in a reasonably efficient fashion.
Edit:
This was a rather painless decision. I swapped better performance in the event of a quick recovery for a safer position that allows substantial profits during 2016 as Tesla turns cash positive and the Model X ramps up. So far I have always found ways to profit from dips over the long run, and my strategy is now in place. Deep in the money calls fare better than OTM calls when surprises happen, but holding deep ITM calls too long on a downswing can eventually bite you if you're stubborn about holding onto them.
Keep your eyes open. Dips are both painful events and great opportunities to position for future profits.
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EarlyAdopter
Active Member
To re-inject some short term trading in this, the short term TSLA price thread, I bought some Oct 16 240 calls today for under $1. I think the sell off this week on no news what-so-ever is overdone. Totally spectulative though.
My core long holding of shares and '16 options remains untouched.
My core long holding of shares and '16 options remains untouched.
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