Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ev-enthusiast]

I think, he is saying that delivering cars to NA shouldn't be an issue.

$25,000 is just accelerated depreciation for a business property. The commentators on that linked article seem more knowledgeable than whoever wrote that piece by grabbing together few tidbits from the forums

All right, NA deliveries no issue, but international deliveries will miss.

All right, Section 179 benefit will not save businesses/people money, thank's for explaning, hughe downside potential.

I agree, let's hope for more downside.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Wasn't there problems in Q42014 delivering the cars? If I remember correctly large number of deliveries slipped to Q12015 because of this. To my memory Tesla blamed bad weather and holiday season.

Edit: "Q4 results were hurt by delayed Model S P85D deliveries caused by "a combination of customers being on vacation, severe winter weather and shipping problems."

You are right and I kind of made a similar comment the other day on one of these threads... however there are some mitigating factors.

• the main issue last year, that dragged on for months I think, was the port workers` strike. Tesla and many other companies were completely at the mercy of that, frankly it proves their crisis management capabilities that it did not become a bigger issue. Hopefully, no strike this year, plus as far as I know they now have alternative delivery/supply routes by train as well.
• customers being on vacation is kind of unpredictable, but they can improve a bit there if they consciously give a heads-up sooner/prompt configurations earlier thru the holiday season
• bad weather is in the cards for winter again, not much they can do about that except learn from last year`s experience on alternative delivery routs, scheduling geographies most affected (e.g. North, North-East US and Europe) for earlier November deliveries and Southern states, countries for December.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

There is a lot of fear about bad weather during this winter.

There is a lot of fear about some people being on holiday later this year.

There is a lot of fear.

There are articles like this one that might be a good read, have fun reading.
Might help to spread fears.

 

[Bunky]

There is a lot of fear about bad weather during this winter.

There is a lot of fear about some people being on holiday later this year.

There is a lot of fear.

There are articles like this one that might be a good read, have fun reading.
Might help to spread fears.

Funny, I was just reading the same article. How it this allowed that some amateur can write such garbage as "Shares, now trading at $232, will be back under $200 again."

This is not a reputable website, it is run by shills from a PO Box address. Why does this end up in the Yahoo news feed for Tesla?

 

[aznt1217]

Funny, I was just reading the same article. How it this allowed that some amateur can write such garbage as "Shares, now trading at $232, will be back under $200 again."

This is not a reputable website, it is run by shills from a PO Box address. Why does this end up in the Yahoo news feed for Tesla?

What annoys me is people will read this and act on it. I don't think people understand how secondaries work...

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Wasn't there problems in Q42014 delivering the cars? If I remember correctly large number of deliveries slipped to Q12015 because of this. To my memory Tesla blamed bad weather and holiday season.

Edit: "Q4 results were hurt by delayed Model S P85D deliveries caused by "a combination of customers being on vacation, severe winter weather and shipping problems."

Yes definitely were. Ironically, some of the issues were related to drive units and seats again... I am pretty sure on a CC Elon and team said they learned a lot from it which is why the delayed the X so much, to get the ramp done right

 

[Drax7]

Represents a risk AND a buying opportunity. :wink:

Agree, short term risk only is my view, model X will eventually be produced efficiently and profitably
and at various price points depending on configuration. That seems difficult to
accomplish in the near term, though in less than six months this too shall pass,
And the cash will start flowing into tesla.

external developments that may be favorable. Supercharger deal with European
car manufacturer. Global warming legislation supporting EVs.
An event that changes the cultural mind set about ice vehicles, maybe
the VW is the one.

 

[Scott Ales]

I see nothing on the short term horizon to slow or stop the slide other than documented performance. It could be a 12 month build back to upper $200s. I have written off my 2016 calls and will consider any change in those as a pure bonus. The skepticism everywhere is too overwhelming. However, I am personally 100% confident the product will take the industry and marketplace by storm once matured. It's just going to have to play out over a long period of time. It's painful to wait for others to figure it all out.

 

[Buddyroe]

An event that changes the cultural mind set about ice vehicles, maybe
the VW is the one.

I think it is more about changing the mindset towards EVs than changing the mindset about ICE vehicles. People just drive ICE cars because they do what they expect them to do (stop and get gas once in a while, and drive it wherever). To go mainstream, Tesla will need to consistently provide more than 300 miles of range - 350 preferably. That will definitely make heads turn. Additionally, any improvements in charge time would be incredibly beneficial too. We all know the benefits of an EV (purely from a transportation perspective, not environmental), but ICE lovers dwell on the 30-40 minutes to charge and the limited range on the interstate at 75-80 mph. That's what I hear constantly. Right or wrong, it's what I hear when I tell people about all the benefits of an EV (particularly Tesla). Those numbers (range and charge time) have to improve before Tesla can really disrupt the automobile industry.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I see nothing on the short term horizon to slow or stop the slide other than documented performance. It could be a 12 month build back to upper $200s. I have written off my 2016 calls and will consider any change in those as a pure bonus. The skepticism everywhere is too overwhelming. However, I am personally 100% confident the product will take the industry and marketplace by storm once matured. It's just going to have to play out over a long period of time. It's painful to wait for others to figure it all out.

I would disagree with 12 months. Sure if they miss the targets for this year the market may punish us all, but if the ERs are good I expect the SP to head back up. 5 things matter now, I think:
- Q3 ER (spending, loss, projections for Q4)
- X ramp news
- Q4 ER
- Model 3 reveal on time and no delay announced during the reveal
- Gigafactory actually opening up in Q2.

I expect Tesla to hit most of these milestones (though 2015 total deliveries is still ambitious and there is some risk there) and I don`t see why the SP would not rise if they do.

 

[Drax7]

I think it is more about changing the mindset towards EVs than changing the mindset about ICE vehicles. People just drive ICE cars because they do what they expect them to do (stop and get gas once in a while, and drive it wherever). To go mainstream, Tesla will need to consistently provide more than 300 miles of range - 350 preferably. That will definitely make heads turn. Additionally, any improvements in charge time would be incredibly beneficial too. We all know the benefits of an EV (purely from a transportation perspective, not environmental), but ICE lovers dwell on the 30-40 minutes to charge and the limited range on the interstate at 75-80 mph. That's what I hear constantly. Right or wrong, it's what I hear when I tell people about all the benefits of an EV (particularly Tesla). Those numbers (range and charge time) have to improve before Tesla can really disrupt the automobile industry.

No worries, pure subterfuge , they all wish they had one but expensive.

just a question of money

 

[Scott Ales]

I just explained to my wife using the Superbowl as an analogy. When you're 20 points down going into the halftime, you don't come out to the playing field announcing your plans. You work the plan without telling anyone. She was asking why Tesla wasn't more transparent with their specific and current efforts. The market reaction is a by-product of actual and perceived future performance. Currently, the perceived performance is distorted by the "Pile On" mentality. Not product demand or past successes. Tesla will be the underdog for another 3-10 years. And all the while the convergence of being an underdog to the one on the top could happen any day. What a twisted world we created! At least I can state these opinions objectively as someone who left themselves unprotected with puts going into the MX launch. I have a high tolerance for risk and accept the downside.
Still a bull, love the company and product!!
Officially down six figures this morning and approaching my all time worst position on any investment. But as they say, you can't label an investment as a loss until you actually sell!
:smile:

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Just ran across this.

Tesla Finishes Dead Last On These 2 Quality Measures TSLA VLKAY - Investors.com

 

[doggusfluffy]

Volkswagen Scandal: Emissions Fallout Hits Vehicle Markets And Courts - Fortune

Rival automakers, with their sights set on benefitting from VW’s troubles, have begun to offer special financial incentives to shoppers willing to switch brands. In the U.S., meanwhile, the value of diesel-powered models made by VW and its Audi luxury brand has taken a hit.

 

[30seconds]

All right, NA deliveries no issue, but international deliveries will miss.

All right, Section 179 benefit will not save businesses/people money, thank's for explaning, hughe downside potential.

I agree, let's hope for more downside.

Section 179 does save businesses & people money. Very common for owners of small business to buy a large SUV/ truck and use as their primary business transportation. Also of course useful for anyone who wants to set up / already has some sort of livery service. In either case you get the write the $25,000 depreciation off the income generated to reduce your tax burden. It basically lowers the cost of these cars - I suspect this will drive a fair amount of extra sales.

Publication 946 (2014), How To Depreciate Property

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

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Just ran across this.

Tesla Finishes Dead Last On These 2 Quality Measures TSLA VLKAY - Investors.com

So, Tesla's stock has fallen a bit below where it should be because institutions are waiting on the sidelines, until Tesla clarifies certain things? Makes sense to me. All that article says is that institutions were paying more attention to the other automobile manufacturers than Tesla last quarter, which doesn't mean much.

I wonder if the rumor someone posted about regarding a big investor taking a stake in Tesla or significantly increasing their stake in the past week has any truth to it. Any announcement should trigger a big spike.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Everybody here happy with today's price action?
Maybe here some more high quality press info to enjoy:
Tesla Finishes Dead Last On These 2 Quality Measures
Have fun everbody!

Let's hope we see a SP leading 1 today!
That would be amazing!

There is a lot of reason for this, like speculation, uncertainity and fear and others.

 

[30seconds]

I just explained to my wife using the Superbowl as an analogy. When you're 20 points down going into the halftime, you don't come out to the playing field announcing your plans. You work the plan without telling anyone. She was asking why Tesla wasn't more transparent with their specific and current efforts. The market reaction is a by-product of actual and perceived future performance. Currently, the perceived performance is distorted by the "Pile On" mentality. Not product demand or past successes. Tesla will be the underdog for another 3-10 years. And all the while the convergence of being an underdog to the one on the top could happen any day. What a twisted world we created! At least I can state these opinions objectively as someone who left themselves unprotected with puts going into the MX launch. I have a high tolerance for risk and accept the downside.
Still a bull, love the company and product!!
Officially down six figures this morning and approaching my all time worst position on any investment. But as they say, you can't label an investment as a loss until you actually sell!
:smile:

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Just ran across this.

Tesla Finishes Dead Last On These 2 Quality Measures TSLA VLKAY - Investors.com

Great perspective. Lots of us are down with you, but of course basis may be different. To me the next quarter or two will be for accumulation. Continued high Model S sales, X roll-out and GF progress are all huge steps for the long term business. This will be a very different company in 12 months.

 

[GreenT]

Great perspective. Lots of us are down with you, but of course basis may be different. To me the next quarter or two will be for accumulation. Continued high Model S sales, X roll-out and GF progress are all huge steps for the long term business. This will be a very different company in 12 months.

Didn't we say that 12 months ago?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Around $220 is the bottom of the channel. Paying close attention to volume and relative movement. This drop has been caused by misinformation and bizarre revisions to expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if it rallies around 10:30EST.

 

[ggr]

All right, NA deliveries no issue, but international deliveries will miss.

All right, Section 179 benefit will not save businesses/people money, thank's for explaning, hughe downside potential.

I agree, let's hope for more downside.

What I was saying is that Model X's will only be delivered within the US/Canadia, and therefore will be delivered quickly after they are built. It will be some time before Model X is delivered to other markets, because homologation is probably only just beginning for those markets. For Q4 purposes, it should be business as usual for Model S, but quick and high value deliveries for Model X.

 

[hockeythug]

This thread has derailed.