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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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toasty, while I couldn't say $180 or $220 is more likely than the other to come next, if you are looking to hold for a long time, and you have buying power, I think there's a better way to go at this. Hold your core position, and if there is a dip to $180 buy some shares as trading shares you sell when price rebounds to $200 (which I consider extremely probable. it is possible you might have to wait quite a while for such a rebound, but more likely a few weeks at most).

I'm in since $35 and have been buying and selling options since.
Just looking for an earnings play. Clearly it's a gamble that i either lose almost all of it or make maybe 200%
 
I still think that Wallstreet will look like a surprised baboon if Elon announces the Gigafactory in the Q4 conference call, with all the important details that got already leaked
-double world production capacity for Li-Ion cells
-build somewhere in the US, probably in Arizona
-Self sustainable
-integrated recycling facility

Also offical reservation numbers of Model X (12000), will strike wallstreet out of the blue.

Its just the same all over again that happened last year, the whole Board here knew about reservation rate, and production rates, and yet on the release date of the official numbers that were no surprise to TMC, the baboons and umpa lumpas made the stock rocket 30%.
I don't expect 30% this time, but some shorts will get burned nevertheless.


@TD1 you are right. Elon tweeted about a profitable quarter weeks ahead of call last May, and "surprised baboon" reaction held off until the call. Elon spoke in EU 2 weeks ago, and it was reported as news a few days ago.

so these examples definitely have happened... I just think it is hard to predict whether it's this situation once again, or sell on news. more likely, there are so many moving pieces with Tesla, we'll see a substantial price move next week and it will be the net impact of many cross currents. of course, if Larry Page is putting up $3 billion for a battery factory joint venture, we'll know why the stock is up (I do like to dream a bit :)

@toasty as you got in at $35 and have held, sound like you are in terrific shape. how a bit of a trade here or there pans out I guess really is inconsequential.
 
Also offical reservation numbers of Model X (12000), will strike wallstreet out of the blue.

I think this one is already priced in, but I could be wrong. This thread (pointed out by Nigel) got picked up on that "Valuewalk" site (linkbait and generally awful site, but it topped the TSLA Google news feed), and there was relevant movement upwards after that.

We have also demonstrated without question that this forum's conclusions can move the stock. We shot ourselves in our long little feet before Q3 Earnings with the Model S reservation predictions getting picked up and exploited by shorts and bear analysts as an earnings miss.
 
I'm still a newb, but I get puzzled every time I see how much the world of trade has creates a direct correlation between stock value and a company's actual value. It sure feels like rationalized gambling much of the time. Correlating market cap and true value seems like a way to justify arguments for or against a current stock's selling price in order to influence investors. It simply seems like analysts trying to find something clever to say about incalculable odds (at least with respect to TSLA) and at least some simply promote whatever point of view is in their own interests. there is essentially no connection except to the extent to which people think there is a connection. For TSLA at least, it appears to be mostly a supply and demand market driven thing based on sentiment. Tesla is popular now, lots of people are buying the car and a lot of those folks don't seem to be worried about the true valuation, they simply buy at wherever the stock is at the time they get inspired and hold it, unless something scary happens. Tesla's product sells the car's buyers on the stock, a lot of which don't pay much attention to the short term. How high could it go? as long as positive catalysts keep the wind of positive sentiment blowing in the right direction, the stock could go a lot higher, IMHO. the market of buyers are unusual, giving great value to what Tesla symbolized as well as what it is and will become materially. I think a lot of folks see the way it's sum could ultimately be much greater than it's parts. There is a very distinct "this has never happened before" feeling about Tesla. It sure looks like we could be looking at the beginning of an empire of sorts and putting a value on that appears very difficult.

240 and 250 is insanely high. We're nearly half the value of GM right now! GM!!!!!
I was thinking how much can we possibly surprise to shoot us that high? It would need to be epic which i don't see happening. We moved up a lot recently so in my hed i'm thinking a solid gamble would be $180 puts for for next week.
 
We've seen the late 1990s and we're not immune to that kind of thing happening again. A toppy market, short squeezes and lots of funds buying and selling to each other. With other people's money as part of their portfolios. I would not be buying or selling now until after ER. Freaky price right now as well as trading action the last couple days.

Aren't Model X reservations roughly 11,100 based on the tally page, not 12,000?
 
I'm still a newb, but I get puzzled every time I see how much the world of trade has creates a direct correlation between stock value and a company's actual value. It sure feels like rationalized gambling much of the time. Correlating market cap and true value seems like a way to justify arguments for or against a current stock's selling price in order to influence investors. It simply seems like analysts trying to find something clever to say about incalculable odds (at least with respect to TSLA) and at least some simply promote whatever point of view is in their own interests. there is essentially no connection except to the extent to which people think there is a connection. For TSLA at least, it appears to be mostly a supply and demand market driven thing based on sentiment. Tesla is popular now, lots of people are buying the car and a lot of those folks don't seem to be worried about the true valuation, they simply buy at wherever the stock is at the time they get inspired and hold it, unless something scary happens. Tesla's product sells the car's buyers on the stock, a lot of which don't pay much attention to the short term. How high could it go? as long as positive catalysts keep the wind of positive sentiment blowing in the right direction, the stock could go a lot higher, IMHO. the market of buyers are unusual, giving great value to what Tesla symbolized as well as what it is and will become materially. I think a lot of folks see the way it's sum could ultimately be much greater than it's parts. There is a very distinct "this has never happened before" feeling about Tesla. It sure looks like we could be looking at the beginning of an empire of sorts and putting a value on that appears very difficult.

My thoughts exactly! I've never been able to put that into words so thank you!
 
We've seen the late 1990s and we're not immune to that kind of thing happening again. A toppy market, short squeezes and lots of funds buying and selling to each other. With other people's money as part of their portfolios. I would not be buying or selling now until after ER. Freaky price right now as well as trading action the last couple days.

Aren't Model X reservations roughly 11,100 based on the tally page, not 12,000?

@ bonaire, not clear what you mean by the phrase "freaky price"
 

Of course there is… The stock is doing too well. :rolleyes:

This is the part I find a bit suspicious. It's not anything to do with the battery. So how did it start? If the owner had nothing to do with it, then why decline Tesla's offer to pay for the damages? Something is off here. We'll probably find out it was started with a Cigarette.

The Model S continues to have the best safety track record of any vehicle in the world. In this particular case, we don’t yet know the precise cause, but have definitively determined that it did not originate in the battery, the charging system, the adapter or the electrical receptacle, as these components were untouched by the fire.”
Shortly after the fire, seven Tesla employees visited the owner of the vehicle. The company also offered to take care of the damages and inconvenience caused by the fire, but the owner declined.
 
It's a non-event, but I'll be thrilled if I can pick up some cheap calls because the shorts pick it up.

In this particular case, we don’t yet know the precise cause, but have definitively determined that it did not originate in the battery, the charging system, the adapter or the electrical receptacle, as these components were untouched by the fire.
 
It's a non-event, but I'll be thrilled if I can pick up some cheap calls because the shorts pick it up.

I will pick up shares and some LEAPS. This is FUD. Happened almost two weeks ago and it appears from the photos that the origin was the wall in front of the car or the ceiling. To contain it they pulled down the ceiling/wall drywall. The car is untouched. I will bet it was driveable.
 
There's this:
10000 195.25. A block on the buy to pick up 10,000 shares at 195.25. Now, sometimes this can be spoofed to give the impression there is a big buyer there. The lowest i've seen has been 193 range.

I think that it's going to be harder and harder for fires to push the price down without some novel aspect thrown in. Right now, a fire moves it by 5 dollars? That's just reinforcing that an occasional fire is common amongst all automobiles.

Epic bear trap coming????
 
It's a non-event, but I'll be thrilled if I can pick up some cheap calls because the shorts pick it up.

In addition to no damage to electrical components, at the top of article is this statement: "The car was about four months old and was not plugged in to an electric socket, says a source."

The article also alluded to the strange fact that: "
The company also offered to take care of the damages and inconvenience caused by the fire, but the owner declined."

It should be noted that Toronto had been plagued by garage arson fires. This could be a case of arson, or the owner simply leaving a lit cigarette on the seat.


 
A couple people on Stocktwits say they called Tesla and that the fire was caused by a breaker in the garage.

divatrader: "$TSLA On the phone with $TSLA & this fire was caused by a breaker in the garage NOT the car. (888) 518-3752"​

golfandstocksalot: "$TSLA divatrader- Confirmed I also just called and was not car but breaker in garage. Thanks!"

So, I called Tesla at 888-518-3752, and the person who answered wasn't sure what caused the fire but just had the info on the Tesla statement that the fire it did not originate in the battery, the charging system, the adapter or the electrical receptacle.

I'm questioning the people who called and got confirmation the cause was the breaker, because why would Tesla issues a statement that says they don't know the precise cause but then say on the phone it was the breaker.

Can someone else call the number and see what kind of response you get?
 
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