Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Lump]

Phil LeBeau ‏@Lebeaucarnews 12m
NEW: 2013 In California, the top luxury auto market in U.S., @TeslaMotors Model S was third best selling lux model priced over $45,000

Phil LeBeau ‏@Lebeaucarnews 10m
NEW: @TeslaMotors Model S sales in Cali. last year totalled 8,347, accounting for largest share of $TSLA U.S. Sales.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Who/what was behind that move? I just glanced away for a moment.

 

[772]

Looks like some decent support at $200

 

[joefee]

Phil LeBeau ‏@Lebeaucarnews 12m
NEW: 2013 In California, the top luxury auto market in U.S., @TeslaMotors Model S was third best selling lux model priced over $45,000

Phil LeBeau ‏@Lebeaucarnews 10m
NEW: @TeslaMotors Model S sales in Cali. last year totalled 8,347, accounting for largest share of $TSLA U.S. Sales.

over 1500 of the 8347 were delivered to the San Diego Service center!

 

[toastypasta]

So where's the stock going with earnings? back down to 180 or up to 220?

 

[InTheShadows]

So where's the stock going with earnings? back down to 180 or up to 220?

Well, 220 is "only" a 10% gain from where we are now. So that is not out of the question. I personally doubt we will go down, but to each his own. I will not be shocked if we hit 220, I won't be disappointed if we do not hit 220 either. 230 would surprise me and anything above that would be a huge shock. That being said I do have a lottery ticket at 240 and 250 for just in case.

 

[toastypasta]

Well, 220 is "only" a 10% gain from where we are now. So that is not out of the question. I personally doubt we will go down, but to each his own. I will not be shocked if we hit 220, I won't be disappointed if we do not hit 220 either. 230 would surprise me and anything above that would be a huge shock. That being said I do have a lottery ticket at 240 and 250 for just in case.

240 and 250 is insanely high. We're nearly half the value of GM right now! GM!!!!!
I was thinking how much can we possibly surprise to shoot us that high? It would need to be epic which i don't see happening. We moved up a lot recently so in my hed i'm thinking a solid gamble would be $180 puts for for next week.

 

[FluxCap]

240 and 250 is insanely high. We're nearly half the value of GM right now! GM!!!!!
I was thinking how much can we possibly surprise to shoot us that high? It would need to be epic which i don't see happening. We moved up a lot recently so in my hed i'm thinking a solid gamble would be $180 puts for for next week.

Be careful, and try to be methodical and analytical about your trades. Have a reason, otherwise you're just gambling and guessing.

For example, my models predict GM ceasing to exist within 5-10 years while Tesla becomes a dominant global transportation juggernaut.

 

[DaveT]

over 1500 of the 8347 were delivered to the San Diego Service center!

I'm not sure where you're getting that number. I was at a San Diego service center tour last weekend and they said 1500 cars existed in the San Diego area. I took that to mean cars sold in 2012, 2013, and YTD 2014 equals 1500 cars for the San Diego area. The 8347 for California sales number was just 2013.

 

[SteveG3]

240 and 250 is insanely high. We're nearly half the value of GM right now! GM!!!!!
I was thinking how much can we possibly surprise to shoot us that high? It would need to be epic which i don't see happening. We moved up a lot recently so in my hed i'm thinking a solid gamble would be $180 puts for for next week.

toasty, while I couldn't say $180 or $220 is more likely than the other to come next, if you are looking to hold for a long time, and you have buying power, I think there's a better way to go at this. Hold your core position, and if there is a dip to $180 buy some shares as trading shares you sell when price rebounds to $200 (which I consider extremely probable. it is possible you might have to wait quite a while for such a rebound, but more likely a few weeks at most).

 

[EnergyMax]

When I started buying Tesla, I considered anything under half the value of GM or F to be a deal.

 

[772]

A short explains why he "hates" Tesla:

Tesla Motors: 5 Things I Hate About You (TSLA)

 

[SteveG3]

fwiw, I think there are many factors behind this run from $150 to $200.

that said, one I think that has come into play this week is the very strong likelihood that Tesla will give guidance next Wednesday. my understanding is that on average analysts are modelling 31-32,000 units sold for 2014 (one of the analysts said this in an interview, and yahoo finance average revenue estimates for 2014 are consistent with this).

in fact, I doubt any of the analysts think 2014 sales will be below 35,000 (including the Merrill Lynch bear). I suspect Tesla will guide something like 35-37,000 2014 volume.

so, you the Wall Street firms knowing today that Tesla's 2014 sales will be guided 15% higher than their collective forecast (and will probably turn out to be 25+% better at the end of the year), and that this information will be known in a week. wouldn't it make sense for the stock to move up in advance of something so probable just days away? if this is so, 2014 production guidance is being priced in now, wont effect stock when announced. could be other positive catalysts though... most likely one, progress on Giga factory plans, financing, partnerships..., comments about margins continuing to improve through 2014 wouldn't hurt either.

 

[InTheShadows]

Be careful, and try to be methodical and analytical about your trades. Have a reason, otherwise you're just gambling and guessing.

For example, my models predict GM ceasing to exist within 5-10 years while Tesla becomes a dominant global transportation juggernaut.

My next highest is 205. I'm heaviest in the 185-195 range. Lowest is 170 now after this morning. After Q3 I changed my strategy to more itm and multiple strikes. I've also been building since early January. The gambles are also only one contract each. However if we get some weird pop to 215-220 tomorrow or early next week they will be gone.

 

[DaveT]

Decent article.

The 'fab five' stocks for 2014 - and why they matter | The Exchange - Yahoo Finance

 

[gaswalla]

we definitely need folks to encourage short trading if we are looking for 240-250 around earnings time. The guy has really lame reasons, but I bet a bunch of folks take his bait.

 

[AlMc]

fwiw, I think there are many factors behind this run from $150 to $200.

that said, one I think that has come into play this week is the very strong likelihood that Tesla will give guidance next Wednesday. my understanding is that on average analysts are modelling 31-32,000 units sold for 2014 (one of the analysts said this in an interview, and yahoo finance average revenue estimates for 2014 are consistent with this).

in fact, I doubt any of the analysts think 2014 sales will be below 35,000 (including the Merrill Lynch bear). I suspect Tesla will guide something like 35-37,000 2014 volume.

so, you the Wall Street firms knowing today that Tesla's 2014 sales will be guided 15% higher than their collective forecast (and will probably turn out to be 25+% better at the end of the year), and that this information will be known in a week. wouldn't it make sense for the stock to move up in advance of something so probable just days away? if this is so, 2014 production guidance is being priced in now, wont effect stock when announced. could be other positive catalysts though... most likely one, progress on Giga factory plans, financing, partnerships..., comments about margins continuing to improve through 2014 wouldn't hurt either.

I believe there is much of the expected positive catalysts built into the price. We have already gotten info on 4thQ deliveries and revenue. There is foreshadowing of the NHTSA positive review/findings with Elon indicating Firmware 6.0 will allow user dictated air suspension heights. Aggressive pricing in China would appear to be well received by potential Chinese buyers.
So, for a 'pop' to occur from ER I believe we will need a huge reservation number disclosure from the Chinese and/or Giga battery factory becoming a reality.

 

[FluxCap]

My next highest is 205. I'm heaviest in the 185-195 range. Lowest is 170 now after this morning. After Q3 I changed my strategy to more itm and multiple strikes. I've also been building since early January. The gambles are also only one contract each. However if we get some weird pop to 215-220 tomorrow or early next week they will be gone.

Apologies -- I was responding to toastypasta's post but forgot to quote him. Your strategy seems fine to me -- and more important than that, you have one.

 

[SteveG3]

I believe there is much of the expected positive catalysts built into the price. We have already gotten info on 4thQ deliveries and revenue. There is foreshadowing of the NHTSA positive review/findings with Elon indicating Firmware 6.0 will allow user dictated air suspension heights. Aggressive pricing in China would appear to be well received by potential Chinese buyers.
So, for a 'pop' to occur from ER I believe we will need a huge reservation number disclosure from the Chinese and/or Giga battery factory becoming a reality.

agreed AIMc, I think many positive catalysts have been priced into stock already... my post was really to suggest that 2014 sales guidance 15% over analyst expectations is one that's been priced in during this run.

I also agree that pop would take something like very inspiring discussion on battery factory.

one final thought, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Tesla is ​both up and down $10+ within 24 hours of the conference call, that up and down both coming from the same exact information.

 

[TD1]

I still think that Wallstreet will look like a surprised baboon if Elon announces the Gigafactory in the Q4 conference call, with all the important details that got already leaked
-double world production capacity for Li-Ion cells
-build somewhere in the US, probably in Arizona
-Self sustainable
-integrated recycling facility

Also offical reservation numbers of Model X (12000), will strike wallstreet out of the blue.

Its just the same all over again that happened last year, the whole Board here knew about reservation rate, and production rates, and yet on the release date of the official numbers that were no surprise to TMC, the baboons and umpa lumpas made the stock rocket 30%.
I don't expect 30% this time, but some shorts will get burned nevertheless.