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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Norway news starts to hit media now.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/tesla-to-replace-defective-drive-systems-in-norway-20141120-00978



What does that mean? only 1100*1/100=11 cars have such issue?

I read it as meaning that 1100 cars had insufficient lubrication applied at the factory. Due to this apperently out of spec condition 11 cars (1%) experienced premature wear of the affected gear. Based on this data TM will replace drive units in all 1100 affected cars over the course of one month.
 
Thanks. It sounds not a big deal now. First, only a very small batch of customers had such bad experience; Second, TM is taking preventative actions and warranty cost is limited to 1100 cars.

I read it as meaning that 1100 cars had insufficient lubrication applied at the factory. Due to this apperently out of spec condition 11 cars (1%) experienced premature wear of the affected gear. Based on this data TM will replace drive units in all 1100 affected cars over the course of one month.
 
I read it as meaning that 1100 cars had insufficient lubrication applied at the factory. Due to this apperently out of spec condition 11 cars (1%) experienced premature wear of the affected gear. Based on this data TM will replace drive units in all 1100 affected cars over the course of one month.

that is how I read it as well just another example of an outstanding company going the non-gm route
 
It's fair to say that Tesla Motors is getting better and better every month. With 10,000 employees come the type of taskforce teams that can test and work on fixes, that were simply in short supply in 2012/2013.

Should we forgive them for selling cars with defects? No, but there have not been anything you'd call a "debacle." They're not Fisker, for example, who simply closed down and left owners without service/maintenance etc.. Or Porsche, who simply asked buyers of their recent 911 GT3 to simply not drive the car until they figured out some issue that was causing them to catch fire.

IMO we will look back on the early years and marvel at how few manufacturing problems and defects there were, considering how new the company was.

I understand that Tesla Motors continues to attract & hire automotive engineers of the absolute highest calibre, and this is showing in the small number of defects and recalls (not to mention how many fires!) that there have been.

On the subject of TSLA... it was sort of a scrappy day, but ended up positive and nestled between the Dow and NASDAQ, and has continued to rise after hours. Hopefully the positive post-ER energy will continue and quickly dig us out of the hurt that happened following the Model X email.
 
But this also says their manufacturing processes are still not perfect. The first recall in 2013 about seats joint and now this. Good that they are taking prevention measures.

I'll let you in on a secret... noone's manufacturing is perfect. I would say it is very far from perfect which is why they even have a reliability category when dealing with cars. New models (or heavily updated older models) are generally the worst in this category and then it gets better after 1 or 2 years. This might be slightly longer for Tesla because we are dealing with such a low volume of cars as compared to everyone else.

The stark difference here is:
1: Preemptive warranty repair. For a dealership model that is supposed to make dealers incentivized to bill their parent company the rate to do any warranty work, would tell me that any issue I discover, I would be TRYING to find this problem on other cars so I can make free money... Strange how this doesn't happen. Tesla on the other hand is technically incentivized in the exact opposite direction. They control all of their shops and it would be cheaper for them and in their financial interest (if you were thinking short term) to avoid any warranty work if at all possible. What we see happen instead is: "Oh, we uh noticed that all of our 12V batteries sucked if you had a certain VIN range, so we are replacing them all as the cars come in for other work." Now we have drive unit problems that they saw happen to 11 cars, and decided to swap the units on all 1100 cars. This is really awesome!

2: Preemptive recalls. I don't know how the drive units would fall under recalls, but we certainly saw how they have handled this in other cases in the past. I am reminded of the scene from Fight Club where Jack is explaining the inspections he does for his auto company and how it is his job to determine how much it is to keep paying people off for property damage, personal injury, and other things in relation to defective stuff in the car until it becomes a higher cost than the cost of a recall and only THEN do they do a voluntary recall. Tesla doesn't care. They want a safe car and safety is a key component of the car.

So reliability wise I would say they are AT LEAST average, but it seems worse than it is because they are jumping the gun on any problem and fixing it for everyone even if it hasn't broken for that customer yet.
 
Seriously guys it's not 11 cars. About 3 users on the norwegian forums has had 11 drives fail between them. One or two is on their 3rd og 4th drive. My guess is at least 100 maybe 200 cars are affected in Norway. And I got a bad feeling Tesla has been replacing broken ones with the same faulty design which explains why they fail again. Also keep in mind the service level in Norway has been nowhere near the pampering you get in the US. 4-5months from when you ask for a service appointment until you car gets taken in is not premium service. So theres a reason this was a major issue in ALL the big newspapers yesterday. Tesla and TSLA will obviously get through this, but I would not be surprised if we get a few cancellations or delayed orders because of this in Norway.

I'm hoping I can buy in some more all the way down to $220 :)

Cobos
 
Seriously guys it's not 11 cars. About 3 users on the norwegian forums has had 11 drives fail between them. One or two is on their 3rd og 4th drive. My guess is at least 100 maybe 200 cars are affected in Norway. And I got a bad feeling Tesla has been replacing broken ones with the same faulty design which explains why they fail again. Also keep in mind the service level in Norway has been nowhere near the pampering you get in the US. 4-5months from when you ask for a service appointment until you car gets taken in is not premium service. So theres a reason this was a major issue in ALL the big newspapers yesterday. Tesla and TSLA will obviously get through this, but I would not be surprised if we get a few cancellations or delayed orders because of this in Norway.

I'm hoping I can buy in some more all the way down to $220 :)

Cobos

Unfortunately I can attest to this. Waiting myself for a DU replacement due to clunk sound. No appointement until January, reported in in October. That's the reality here but I'm sure in 2015 Tesla will catch up with their service departments, I know they are still building out and hiring extensively. I'm not expecting or hoping for $220 ever again, and this issue will only cause that kind of decline in the stock price if the big player/market manipulators choose to spin it like that. My take is that if they wanted the price down they would have spun it yesterday.
 
With the price being forced up because of a Macro event, do you think the big players will bail on whatever they were holding on to and just allow the price to freely move? Because if so, my weeklies are going to be doing REALLY well for me :D
Yes, I think we'll see their ramparts fall today. They were defending their sand-castle options positions against some waves lapping on its walls, but today the tide's coming in. Euro stock indexes are up 2.5%. They'll have to let go, and the stock will rebound to its Monday-Tuesday level, around $257, then join the party and rise to close over $260.

At least, that's why my Ouija board says. :)
 
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