Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Johan]

OK, now the DU statements by Elon is out in Norwegian media, VG and DN (two of the largest paper- and online newspapers). They give a negative view on the whole thing, of course, the media here is no different than anywhere else. All about big headlines, the more disastrous the better.

Tesla med store motorproblemer i Norge - Bil og trafikk - VG (Google translated: Google Translate)

http://www.dn.no/privat/dnBil/2014/...ke-teslabiler-rammet-av-havari-og-klunkelyder (Google translated: Google Translate)

Maybe I shouldn't post this here? Am I feeding the bears? If I buy puts now will the SEC come after me for market manipulation?

 

[Perfectlogic]

Yea I closed some of my Tesla calls this morning, it will probably cut a few percentage points off the SP when it hits the american channels. Thanks for bringing this to light. Not much for buying Tesla puts, it just feels wrong.

 

[FredTMC]

Yea I closed some of my Tesla calls this morning, it will probably cut a few percentage points off the SP when it hits the american channels. Thanks for bringing this to light. Not much for buying Tesla puts, it just feels wrong.

I highly doubt much of a SP impact. News of DU issues is already baked in including TM warrantee reserve bump

 

[ckessel]

I wonder why it's just Norway. They don't get a special version of the drive unit. Perhaps it's a problem at extreme temperatures with the grease being used (which would end up affecting more than Norway)?

 

[Perfectlogic]

I highly doubt much of a SP impact. News of DU issues is already baked in including TM warrantee reserve bump

One could often argue that something should be baked in, but the market doesn't always react rationally. When Cory is on Bloomberg tomorrow blowing this out of proportions like the car is a ticking bomb and sending the DUs to Norway will result in thousands of cars less sold in Q4 I think it will affect the stock.

I wonder why it's just Norway. They don't get a special version of the drive unit. Perhaps it's a problem at extreme temperatures with the grease being used (which would end up affecting more than Norway)?

The problem is particularly frequent in Norway because the production problem happened in a period where a lot of cars were shipped to Norway.

 

[uselesslogin]

I wonder why it's just Norway. They don't get a special version of the drive unit. Perhaps it's a problem at extreme temperatures with the grease being used (which would end up affecting more than Norway)?

In one of the articles it said that the affected cars were produced at a time when they were producing a lot of cars for Norway.

 

[anon]

Do we know that this is the same problem as before? My recollection is that the earlier problem could be fixed with a low-cost shim. This lack of grease sounds different.

 

[uselesslogin]

Do we know that this is the same problem as before? My recollection is that the earlier problem could be fixed with a low-cost shim. This lack of grease sounds different.

Definitely sounds like a different and more expensive problem but not affecting as many cars.

 

[FredTMC]

This clunk is one of the symptoms that has been reported since launch of MS. Another is high speed whine at highway speed

these issues are old news.

The new info is the speculation around the root cause of the clunk issue affecting some early cars

I'm curious to hear of cases of cars less than 6mo old with these issues. My assumption is that TM engineering has fixed these problems

 

[Newb]

I highly doubt much of a SP impact. News of DU issues is already baked in including TM warrantee reserve bump

Well, the street is irrational. I'm betting on a downturn and will pick up some more shares tomorrow - some more screaming buying opportunities ahead.

 

[vgrinshpun]

This clunk is one of the symptoms that has been reported since launch of MS. Another is high speed whine at highway speed

these issues are old news.

The new info is the speculation around the root cause of the clunk issue affecting some early cars

I'm curious to hear of cases of cars less than 6mo old with these issues. My assumption is that TM engineering has fixed these problems

I have to say that it is surprising how often this issue being brought up in the investment related threads.

I agree that this is a serious issue for a particular affected car owner, but unless the numbers of affected cars are significant and fix is expensive, this is a non-issue as far as SP is concerned. I am personally familiar with the issue as my drivetrain was replaced at about 7,000+ miles due to elevated noise at speeds exceeding 75mph. I've put more then 21,000 miles since my drivetrain unit was replaced with a remanufactured one, without additional issues.

Going back to the potential impact on SP, it is negligible, unless the problem manifests in consistently significant population of cars. Consumer Reports has actually very good information on this. In their latest video they state that frequency of reported drivetrain issues was reduced significantly as compared to the early cars. Their reliability table provides further information on this issue - the rate of problems with drive system was at less than 3% in cars manufactured in 2012, less than 2% for 2013 cars, and, finally, less than 1% in 2014 cars. These numbers are quite low, with a clear pattern of significant improvements - I would say that this issue seem to be blown out of proportion.

 

[FredTMC]

+1 vgrinshpun

thx for this illuminating data. It's as to be expected. Declining defects over time.

 

[Johan]

I just wanted to say I brought up the Drive Unit issue not because I believe it to be relevant to Tesla's cost but because I believe that the way the media may spin it could give a short-term negative effect on the stock price that we may be able to profit from. This is the short-term thread after all.

 

[FluxCap]

I just wanted to say I brought up the Drive Unit issue not because I believe it to be relevant to Tesla's cost but because I believe that the way the media may spin it could give a short-term negative effect on the stock price that we may be able to profit from. This is the short-term thread after all.

Thanks for the heads-up, Johan. I think this is mostly a known issue that has been priced in adequately over the last year and am not expecting much of an immediate buying opportunity out of this, especially since there are much stronger forces from market makers working to keep TSLA near the point of "max pain" at least through options expiration tomorrow, which is about $247.50, almost exactly where we are now.

 

[AlMc]

I just wanted to say I brought up the Drive Unit issue not because I believe it to be relevant to Tesla's cost but because I believe that the way the media may spin it could give a short-term negative effect on the stock price that we may be able to profit from. This is the short-term thread after all.

No need to explain. Having more info to make educated investment choices is very helpful and most appreciated

 

[SteveG3]

It came from the same place that most everything else comes from (like FW doors have been so difficult Tesla has decided to not use them); people's imaginations. If I recall correctly, there is to be no significant changes/improvements coming in the next while per Elon. I'd call a 110kwh battery a significant.

I suspect you are referring to the "Latest Update" from Tesla on 11/7 which had this to say

"With the introduction of Dual Motor and Autopilot, there will be no further significant platform changes to Model S for about a year."
​

While this does not mean there will be a larger battery pack at the time the X deliveries start, I don't see this statement ("for about a year" from early November) as inconsistent with such a larger pack being offered with the X from the start.

To be sure, our imaginations are playing a role in talk of a larger battery with the X (and, at least for me, I'd say wishful thinking), but it's not entirely our imaginations. In Oslo on 2/1 this year, Elon said bigger battery packs, "maybe next year or something like that." Neither bankable nor simply a product of our imaginations.

link, relevant comment 7:10 into the talk,

Elon Musk in Oslo 01.02.2014 - YouTube

 

[vgrinshpun]

I just wanted to say I brought up the Drive Unit issue not because I believe it to be relevant to Tesla's cost but because I believe that the way the media may spin it could give a short-term negative effect on the stock price that we may be able to profit from. This is the short-term thread after all.

I agree with others that this is relevant information. With my post I just wanted to put additional information on the subject out there, just in case that media types are watching us over here...

 

[Muskol]

Model S Car and Driver 10 Best

Tesla Model S 60: 2015 10Best Cars Car and Driver

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

George Ell - Director - Tesla Motors UK and Ireland is speaking right now. I think you can send questions via twitter. HarveyNashTechnology (@HNTechnology) | Twitter
Harvey Nash | Group Events : Launch of the Harvey Nash Technology Survey 2014 - London

 

[jhm]

I'm trying to understand where this 110kwh battery pack topic came from. I don't think TM is going to do this. There's only enough cells to go around. For me, I think what's happening in terms of delays is Elon nitpicking at various things and the team trying to get the range up to Model S standards using the 60 and 85 kWh packs. I think that's the real change and also believe this is why the D's were rolled out. To fine tune motor control and increase range. Not sure why people continue to think the Falcon wings are an issue. Gullwings exist on current vehicles, the only difference is the articulating hinge.

It's about towing. People who want to tow with their Model X will want a higher capacity battery. No matter how efficient the vehicle is on its own, put a trailer on it and you'll need more energy per mile.