Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[MartinAustin]

The Model X may well increase ASP. We have recently learned that this model will be the first EV to tow trailers. Customers seeking the X for this capability will also want to buy a version with a 110 kWh or higher battery. They will also want the power of the P85D. They will pay quite a premium for an X P110D. I also anticipate that a 60 kWh version will not be offered.

I look forward to watching the MX P110D in a truck pull with any pickup on the market. Long before Tesla makes a truck, the MX will be able to pull competitor trucks off the road.

A nice touch would be for the MX to have power outlets.

Like some sort of TSLA Robin Hood... jhm hits the archery contest bullseye and then hits his own arrows with new arrows. BOOM!!!

60kWh will not be offered... due to the effects of worse aerodynamics and heavier vehicle weight on range. Even though it currently says "Model X will be offered with a 60 or 85 kWh battery" - there is no configurator for reservation holders, or prices for options. People won't be hurt when it disappears during the inevitable complete revamp of the Model X ordering page (which will be accompanied by revisions to the Model S ordering page). I will be surprised if they don't "recommend" the larger battery for those who want the tow hitch, or even restrict it to the larger battery configurations.

 

[JRP3]

I have to admit I'm a bit confused. Elon previously mentioned the difficulty with the falcon wing doors, but now there is this:

The doors weren't the challenge. They are relatively easy to execute....

http://philpearlman.tumblr.com/post/103042471641/tesla-clarifies-morgan-stanleys-concerns-on-model

 

[bonnie]

He's probably dialing it down because everyone overreacted to his earlier comments. I'm sure they were a challenge, but not the challenge that everyone obsessed about.

 

[Krugerrand]

I believe it was specifically the 'sealing' around the doors that was the challenge. And perhaps since then something else became more of a challenge, such that whatever the door issue was originally turned out to be not such a big deal after all. Perspective? Relativity? Tesla is moving so fast that what's today can become outdated by tomorrow.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I have to admit I'm a bit confused. Elon previously mentioned the difficulty with the falcon wing doors, but now there is this:



http://philpearlman.tumblr.com/post/103042471641/tesla-clarifies-morgan-stanleys-concerns-on-model

Today's problems always less of a challenge in future

 

[aznt1217]

I'm trying to understand where this 110kwh battery pack topic came from. I don't think TM is going to do this. There's only enough cells to go around. For me, I think what's happening in terms of delays is Elon nitpicking at various things and the team trying to get the range up to Model S standards using the 60 and 85 kWh packs. I think that's the real change and also believe this is why the D's were rolled out. To fine tune motor control and increase range. Not sure why people continue to think the Falcon wings are an issue. Gullwings exist on current vehicles, the only difference is the articulating hinge.

 

[Johan]

He's probably dialing it down because everyone overreacted to his earlier comments. I'm sure they were a challenge, but not the challenge that everyone obsessed about.

Challenge and problem are similar but not identical concepts, if you ask me... I think Elon wants everyone to understand that difference in nuance.

 

[Hogfighter]

Check out the updated delivery estimates on the design center website......regular 60 and 85 deliveries in March. P85D deliveries in December. Looks to me like they are going to be producing D's almost exclusively for a few months. That's going to make the ASP, and revenues, blow through estimates for 2015 Q1.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I have to admit I'm a bit confused. Elon previously mentioned the difficulty with the falcon wing doors, but now there is this:



http://philpearlman.tumblr.com/post/103042471641/tesla-clarifies-morgan-stanleys-concerns-on-model

I remember him mentioning it as an example of an engineering challenge. People assumed they were a challenge and I think he was happy to let them think that they were the source of delay, since nobody was talking about AWD, tow rating, aerodynamics, interior, autopilot/driver assist, larger capacity battery or anything else.

 

[pGo]

Check out the updated delivery estimates on the design center website......regular 60 and 85 deliveries in March. P85D deliveries in December. Looks to me like they are going to be producing D's almost exclusively for a few months. That's going to make the ASP, and revenues, blow through estimates for 2015 Q1.

Great. This officially puts a full stop on demand issue. Good that D gets priority. Elon said that S85D will cover 70% of the demand. Great value IMO.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'm trying to understand where this 110kwh battery pack topic came from. I don't think TM is going to do this. There's only enough cells to go around. For me, I think what's happening in terms of delays is Elon nitpicking at various things and the team trying to get the range up to Model S standards using the 60 and 85 kWh packs. I think that's the real change and also believe this is why the D's were rolled out. To fine tune motor control and increase range. Not sure why people continue to think the Falcon wings are an issue. Gullwings exist on current vehicles, the only difference is the articulating hinge.

Panasonic is having to add cell manufacturing capacity. A 110kWh battery pack would need to use newer, higher-density cells. If Panasonic could either add new capacity or upgrade existing capacity to higher-density cells but hold the cost, Tesla would be able to make more cars: manufacturing is cells/year, rather than capacity per year. EDIT: also, higher density, if both volumetric and gravimetric, would help shed weight. Plus, if Tesla could charge a premium now for better cells for a larger pack, they might be able to get better terms for future cars as they help Panasonic amortize costs faster.

 

[Johan]

Everyone please who has some skin in the game short-term, please be wary of the news cycle today as media pick up on the following:

Drive Unit Problem / Fixes - Page 3

I'll quote Øyvind's post here:

The Norwegian Tesla owners club has sent an email to Elon, and the response is now posted in the norwegian EV forum and on the EV page elbil.no

In short – Tesla states that too little grease on a vital part (driveshaft that goes from the motor into the gearbox) makes the teeth wear down and break. Tesla is sending 300 motors to Norway every week, and redistributing motors from new vehicle production over to repairs. Also extra help will be flown in, in adition to regular staff working maximum overtime.

Not sure if this works:
DU Problem article via Google translate

If this will be percieved as positive, negative or neutral by the markets is a hard question to answer. Positive: Elon and Tesla taking action and being in front of the issue. Negative: perhaps the explanation is a tad lacking in depth and also it's hard to confirmt that it's a tight VIN-range of cars that have had this issue, what about more current and future cars?

 

[Cattledog]

Everyone please who has some skin in the game short-term, please be wary of the news cycle today as media pick up on the following:

Drive Unit Problem / Fixes - Page 3

I'll quote Øyvind's post here:



If this will be percieved as positive, negative or neutral by the markets is a hard question to answer. Positive: Elon and Tesla taking action and being in front of the issue. Negative: perhaps the explanation is a tad lacking in depth and also it's hard to confirmt that it's a tight VIN-range of cars that have had this issue, what about more current and future cars?

I had my drive unit replaced last week, was done in a few days.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm trying to understand where this 110kwh battery pack topic came from. I don't think TM is going to do this.

It came from the same place that most everything else comes from (like FW doors have been so difficult Tesla has decided to not use them); people's imaginations. If I recall correctly, there is to be no significant changes/improvements coming in the next while per Elon. I'd call a 110kwh battery a significant.

 

[Johan]

I had my drive unit replaced last week, was done in a few days.

Sure, my only worry is some "analyst" will start calculating the warranty cost implications and come up with something like how this will eat all of Tesla's profit for the next 5 years. Even if it's not at all true, and that this issue is likely not expensive to fix and can be fixed preemptively on the affected cars, we can all guess how much that could damage the stock short term. I know - buying oportunity right? It's just that some of us went in with stock and options yesterday based on Jonas' bogus note...

 

[Lump]

Yesterday I was looking to buy the 2017 LEAPs but after hearing the drive unit issue I am leaning towards picking up some puts, coincidentally I am going in for a probable drive unit replacement today , the TSLA roller coaster continues.

 

[eepic]

Everyone please who has some skin in the game short-term, please be wary of the news cycle today as media pick up on the following:

Drive Unit Problem / Fixes - Page 3

I'll quote Øyvind's post here:



If this will be percieved as positive, negative or neutral by the markets is a hard question to answer. Positive: Elon and Tesla taking action and being in front of the issue. Negative: perhaps the explanation is a tad lacking in depth and also it's hard to confirmt that it's a tight VIN-range of cars that have had this issue, what about more current and future cars?

Thanks for this. I wonder if this was part of the reason Elon/Deepak declined to talk about weekly production at the point in time of the Q3 call. Elon's comments and tone were consistent with having a headache about some production issue.

Hmm... too soon for a lube joke?

 

[Lump]

Wonder how long it takes before someone connects the news with the delays?

 

[hershey101]

Has anyone seen this review of the P85D.
Tesla Model S P85D test drive - GQ.COM (UK)....
"Tesla's P85D feels as fast as a Bugatti Veryron"!
Can't wait for more headlines like this to hit the wire, and we will soon say hello to $275

 

[chickensevil]

Wonder how long it takes before someone connects the news with the delays?

This will of course also end up being the stated "explaination" behind pushing back the S60 and S85 to March because: "they don't have enough drive units to go around". It will totally be spun up as another production issue that is going to slow down sales, and they are going to yet again miss targets. I would be prepared for that argument to surface.

There are quite a few signs that point to them being back on track already for production... Not the least of which is the latest Blog post that says they are at around 1000 a week right now. There is a timing factor in getting these drive units shipped to Norway, so I would anticipate that they already made the majority of the parts back in October. So it shouldn't impact current production too badly.