Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Muskol]

Sometimes I wonder if Elon uses these public comments as a management style. As in, there were some engineers tearing their hair out about the doors, preparing a "why we have to ditch the doors" presentation and now they have to just get back to work instead.

Yes, I recall at the D event he said something like "..and I believe our engineers are hearing this in real-time (chuckles)" when describing the automatic charger connector thingamajig.

 

[FredTMC]

SO Morgan Stanley predicts 53,000 deliveries for 2015, when we have a production rate of over 1,000 cars per week right now? Anyone else find that stupid?

+1. Most excellent point...

 

[AlMc]

I agree that Jonas is losing his marbles, trying to put myself in his shoes of being the most powerful auto analyst on The Street and letting the power get to me and feed my ego for many years now I've come up with a theory:

I wouldn't be surprised if this is some type of 'lost his mind' attempt at posturing by Jonas....like "you made me look bad with your Falcon Wings door update email right after my note about it potentially being a problem, well I can drive your stock price down with a note of my own if you mess with my reputation like that, don't make me look bad again".

If Tesla released their update to X reservation holders on the Falcon Wing doors a week or few weeks from now it wouldn't have been as embarassing for Jonas and perhaps he wouldn't have felt as compelled to strike back showing his power over the TSLA stock. He feels that they need him to help keep the stock high enough for another capital raise at some point in the future, but by then I don't think we will need Jonas is my opinion, and perhaps that is the opinion of Tesla management at ths point.

^^this^^. seems to be a little ego clash going on IMO.

 

[FredTMC]

Tweet issued as requested. Also a statement from Tesla. MS backpedals.

I saw the tweet... What statement from tesla today? I haven't seen any statement from tesla today.

 

[aznt1217]

Sometimes I wonder if Elon uses these public comments as a management style. As in, there were some engineers tearing their hair out about the doors, preparing a "why we have to ditch the doors" presentation and now they have to just get back to work instead.

No, I think he just brings this up because he gets pissed at the noise. He really emphasizes the "fundamental truth." If it's false it's something that drives him nuts.

 

[Curt Renz]

I wish Elon would say something about 50k being the safe # of deliveries.

Elon has said he awakens in the morning at around 7 am PT. That's about the time he issued his two tweets today. I wouldn't be surprised if there is more to come after he arrives at work and meets with his engineers.

 

[FredTMC]

Elon has said he awakens in the morning at around 7 am PT. That's about the time he issued his two tweets today. I wouldn't be surprised if there is more to come after he arrives at work and meets with his engineers.

Assuming he's in town and he doesn't first go to SpaceX in the morning.

 

[Curt Renz]

Jonas released another note this morning basically apologizing for his erroneous "Falcon Wing doors might be a problem" conjecture.

I think the main question this morning is whether Jonas has lost all of his marbles and is just making stuff up to look edgy and get some more time on CNBC, or if he's sandbagging.

It would be unfortunate if an analyst at a major firm can allow unrelated concerns to interfere with objectivity. Apparently the analyst came up with his falcon wing door conjecture without receiving confirmation from Tesla Motors. He may have spread his rumor on Monday to justify his revised outlook planned for a Wednesday release. If he was wrong on Monday, then using it as a basis for his Wednesday report falsifies his arguments.

 

[mejojo]

.....If he was wrong on Monday, then using it as a basis for his Wednesday report falsifies his arguments.

He would fit right in, in Congress.

 

[hockeythug]

These analysts and their blatant false reporting makes it’s too easy to make money on this stock.

 

[sub]

I've heard the "max pain" comment tossed around here a lot but i'm not sure why 247.50 is seen as max pain. Can someone explain to me? I thought maybe it was due to the number of options trading at that strike but that doesn't appear to be the case.

 

[Curt Renz]

Apparently Stifel is suggesting even more dire news, which makes me wonder what these guys are playing at?

That could have been a case of Stifel's Albertine assuming that Morgan Stanley's Jonas has inside information, and not wanting to fall too far behind the "leader". It turns out that that Jonas' falcon wing door conjecture was ill-informed. With that as the basis for Jonas' Wednesday report, his argument falls apart. So does Albertine's.

 

[chickensevil]

That could have been a case of Stifel's Albertine assuming that Morgan Stanley's Jonas has inside information and not wanting to fall too far behind the "leader". It turns out that that Jonas' falcon wing door conjecture was without merit. With that as the basis for his Wednesday report, his argument falls apart. So does Albertine's.

Agreed, I didn't think either had merit to begin with. Anyone suggesting less than 50k deliveries for Model S in 2015 just doesn't make sense, and only riding on exactly 50k might also be a little conservative, but we will get the real guidance for 2015 in Feb, so I guess we need to buckle up until then for a bumpy ride.

 

[Johan]

I've heard the "max pain" comment tossed around here a lot but i'm not sure why 247.50 is seen as max pain. Can someone explain to me? I thought maybe it was due to the number of options trading at that strike but that doesn't appear to be the case.

It's the strike where the sum of all options in play, calls and puts, nets the lowest loss for the market maker. Here is the statistics from Max Pain calculator
for TSLA Nov Options. It's straightforward enough to calculate from open interest info. On expiry no option has any time value left, all that's left is intrinsic value which is why it's totally calculable.

 

[sub]

It's the strike where the sum of all options in play, calls and puts, nets the lowest loss for the market maker. Here is the statistics from AAPL Max Pain
for TSLA Nov Options. It's straightforward enough to calculate from open interest info. On expiry no option has any time value left, all that's left is intrinsic value which is why it's totally calculable.

View attachment 63985

Thanks Johan, where do you get that info from? I use TOS. Does anyone use this info for trading purposes and is there any data/studies to back up the "manipulation" claim?

 

[jhm]

There's a hitch in Model X plans!

Here it is:

Very nice to see towing capability with optional hitch and other accessories for skis and bikes. With towing, I expect a higher capacity battery to be among the offerings.

PS, I expect that the hitch will be designed not to fall off and create a road hazard.

 

[Johan]

Thanks Johan, where do you get that info from? I use TOS. Does anyone use this info for trading purposes and is there any data/studies to back up the "manipulation" claim?

Just click the link I provided. Input any ticker and any expiry. Note that it does its calculations based on yesterdays closing open interest for all strikes.

 

[sub]

Just click the link I provided. Input any ticker and any expiry. Note that it does its calculations based on yesterdays closing open interest for all strikes.

bookmarked, thanks.

 

[Curt Renz]

Here it is:

Here's a link to confirmation from Tesla Motors to Morgan Stanley that the Model X will indeed have falcon wing doors: Tesla clarifies Morgan Stanley’s concerns on Model X doors | Tumblr Photoset - Yahoo Finance

 

[mejojo]

"Tesla is a Top 4 pick in our ranking of N. American auto stocks" - I guess that's a bit of damning with faint praise.