Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[stopcrazypp]

I had always hoped it wasn't a NCR18650B already, because if the Tesla cell was a NCR18650A, then there might be an easy step up using the NCR18650B as a basis. If it was the NCR18650B already, then it means getting the NCR81650G working reliably enough which could be much harder.

Personally, I was hoping that too, but the cell count (which was finally verified just recently with someone opening up a salvaged pack) says otherwise.

In any case, we're not talking about the actual retail cells, we're talking about the underlying technology that is then built into retail cells and into Tesla's cells.

Yes, that's what I mean too. Basically we are looking at retail cells as a proxy to the custom cells Tesla is using (with the assumption there are slight tweaks, but not drastically different).

I've seen some specs for Orbitronic 3600 mAh cells that claim to be Panasonic inside - which claim 47g per cell. If that is actually the case, then we can step up about 6% without a weight penalty, which means a 90 kWh pack for the same weight and size as the existing 85 kWh pack or 280 mile EPA range.

The Orbtronic cells are the ones I am referring to. They claim to have NCR81650G inside them and they have been verified to really have 3600mAh (not simply the same 3400mAh as the NCR18650B). Keeppower's 3600mAh cells also likely have Panasonic NCR81650G inside them too. There are also battery related sources that say Panasonic have officially launched NCR81650G to suppliers. NCR18650C rumors however haven't been verified yet.

 

[jkliu47]

Plus, X is the 24th letter of the alphabet, and 24 in binary is 11000!
And, add up the letter positions of the following letters: E, L, O, N, M, U, S, K. Answer: 110!
Not just a businessman and scientist, he's a numerologist!

Anyway, I certainly wouldn't call 110kWh imminent, but if the Gen 3 pack can shrink by 20%, then if that can do 85kWh, in a Model S you could do 85kWh/(1-20%) = 106.25kWh

EDIT: Oh my god, Gen 3 in binary in Gen 11!

Haha Money you sure have a lot of time on your hands

 

[JRP3]

Interestingly the original Panasonic/Tesla announcement about cells for the Model S referenced 3.1 ah cells but we know they went with 3.4 ah cells, or close to it. Whatever the reason that suggests cell technology advanced faster than they expected, or that they were farther ahead than they wanted the public to know about. I expect similar for the G3, coupled with another 2+ years of technical advancements, coupled with production cost reduction gets Tesla where they need to be.

 

[Norbert]

Gigafactory location candidate in Sacramento?

Tesla Wooed by California as New Jersey Weighs Sales Plan - Bloomberg

California lawmakers offered Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) regulatory changes to accelerate a planned $5 billion battery “gigafactory” as New Jersey legislators filed a measure that would allow the company to resume electric car sales there.

Tesla is looking at the former Mather Air Force Base near Sacramento, closed in 1993, among other California sites, according to Gaines and Mark Hedlund, a spokesman for Steinberg.

In New Jersey, where a state commission banned Tesla from direct sales in April after lobbying by franchise car dealers, three lawmakers are offering a bill to let the company sell directly to consumers. If passed, Tesla could operate as many as four company stores, two more than they had before the ban.

 

[uselesslogin]

Some people who had mid/late August deliveries scheduled are now getting their cars in June. To me I'm guessing some extra battery cells are now available to get some extra deliveries before the July shutdown.

Awesome phone call from DS

Anyway should bode well for Q2 delivery numbers.

 

[maoing]

Given the production rate is cell supply constrained and I believe TM should have a couple of weeks buffer supply for cell. So TM might skew the July shut down period cell allocation to June production, i.e. minimize the production impact due to July shutdown.

Some people who had mid/late August deliveries scheduled are now getting their cars in June. To me I'm guessing some extra battery cells are now available to get some extra deliveries before the July shutdown.

Awesome phone call from DS

Anyway should bode well for Q2 delivery numbers.

 

[Lessmog]

Plus, X is the 24th letter of the alphabet, and 24 in binary is 11000!
And, add up the letter positions of the following letters: E, L, O, N, M, U, S, K. Answer: 110!
Not just a businessman and scientist, he's a numerologist!

Anyway, I certainly wouldn't call 110kWh imminent, but if the Gen 3 pack can shrink by 20%, then if that can do 85kWh, in a Model S you could do 85kWh/(1-20%) = 106.25kWh

EDIT: Oh my god, Gen 3 in binary in Gen 11!

Also, if you read L-one Musk backwards it makes Xum11 - amirite? :tongue:

 

[vgrinshpun]

According to the post linked below a person picking up at the factory yesterday reported that the factory running one shift "for the next few weeks". Does anybody have more information on this?

Model S Order Delivery Tracker - Q1 2014 - Page 164

 

[TSLAopt]

Anyone have any ideas on what the extraordinarily low volume in these stocks mean? Calm before storm of buying or selling?

 

[kenliles]

Anyone have any ideas on what the extraordinarily low volume in these stocks mean? Calm before storm of buying or selling?

It's low market wide; My personal take is the whole market has no reason to buy or sell and just waiting to let the economy grow some into the valuations. they aren't high relative to GDP, interest rates; but they aren't low either. But you're right, the life is currently gone from the these stocks (Solar as well). It seems more acute when we are accustomed to more volatility - but really the entire market is behaving the same way.

 

[pz1975]

These so-called momo stocks have lost their mo (have dropped way down and now rebounded back a bit). I think people w holdings aren't selling thinking they will go back up eventually, and those without are waiting to see if they will drop back more before considering buying in. Result = low volumes and trading w the market. Like a sailboat on a lake with no wind.

I think a big macro or really big micro catalyst either direction would push things again.

 

[mershaw2001]

These so-called momo stocks have lost their mo (have dropped way down and now rebounded back a bit). I think people w holdings aren't selling thinking they will go back up eventually, and those without are waiting to see if they will drop back more before considering buying in. Result = low volumes and trading w the market. Like a sailboat on a lake with no wind.

I think a big macro or really big micro catalyst either direction would push things again.

I think we might see more general market advancement and that would pick tesla up from the 50 day SMA. It seems we've been stagnating right on top of that line, and I think by about wed things will break one way or another so I grabbed 210's, 215's and 222.5's that all expire on friday.

 

[kenliles]

I think we might see more general market advancement and that would pick tesla up from the 50 day SMA. It seems we've been stagnating right on top of that line, and I think by about wed things will break one way or another so I grabbed 210's, 215's and 222.5's that all expire on friday.

straight calls? - so you see it picking up through the week then right?

 

[mershaw2001]

straight calls? - so you see it picking up through the week then right?

yeah. Here's my reasons:
we fell today, on what was prob the lowest volume Tesla has seen in a year, 2.8 million shares. To me, that indicates that not many people had faith in the fall.

We are 10 days into consolidation after a 25 point move up. We see a pull back of, at best, 5 dollars. Support emerged twice at 204 today. I think that this would be a good bear flag for an upward move of another equal amount- to about 225 or 230.

I usually like to have calls sold against my shares, but this week and the next week seem to be the time that tesla would move unexpectedly. So I decided to spend 1000 dollars on some calls. I thought it was a better play than buying more shares because we are also sitting above the 50 day moving average, and after consolidating, we could break downward 10 dollars. 10 day consolidation period feels right for tesla, as it appears that every trend occurs for 2-3 weeks. The last uptrend took 2 week. If I'm wrong, I'll buy another 1000 in calls next week and then stop this strategy.

Also, on a move up, I'll be selling the 230's to hedge my position and get some money back.


Also, we seem ripe for an announcement concerning the giga factory.

 

[jhm]

I wonder if some of the wind in our sails may be lost to AAPL. Apple has just done a 7 for 1 stock split and has been charging its way back to the historic $700 level, now $100. I for one will have more cash to deploy once Apple tops out.

 

[JRP3]

Cramer feels the wrath of Tesla fans: http://www.thestreet.com/story/12737804/1/jim-cramer-the-danger-of-worshipping-tesla.html
Apparently Jim doesn't actually understand what a share of stock is:

These are pieces of paper, and no more. Never let them get to you to the point of dismissing all that is out there, including a parking lot full of competition observed by an early Tesla backer.

 

[MikeC]

Sure, there is a YouTube clip of me at first dismissing the stock, which was right. It did next to nothing for those first three years. But when it took off I was all in Tesla. Now, 150 points later, down $50 from its high, call me worried, not from the BMW challenge, but by the worship of a stock.

That's an outright fabrication. He's been calling it a cult stock and I don't know that he's ever recommended it. But I'm glad to see that he's bearish on TSLA, otherwise I'd be worried.

What he doesn't understand is that people are rooting for the success of the company, not the stock. Well, maybe the stock a little bit, but that's secondary.

 

[aznt1217]

Usually I'd agree with Jim here. When commoners are buying shares and praising the stock when they know nothing about the market, I'd short. The one mistake he makes is a common one many in the press make: they put the i3 in the same bucket as the model S which it definitely isn't. It's an upscale competitor to the Nissan leaf.

In this case, there is some serious value in Tesla's future and the vast majority of the movers and shakers are still hesitant about Tesla Motors as a company which should tell all of us there is serious money to still be made!

 

[Auzie]

Cramer feels the wrath of Tesla fans: http://www.thestreet.com/story/12737804/1/jim-cramer-the-danger-of-worshipping-tesla.html
Apparently Jim doesn't actually understand what a share of stock is:

He makes a claim that BMW i3 is a competition to Tesla.

I had a look and sales numbers of BMW i3. Since BMW i3 is not production constrained, it can be assumed that their sales will be 8k-10k/year, if the current trend continues. BMW i3 seems to be drawing new customer base to BMW brand, and perhaps it could be valid competition to Tesla if Tesla had a car in similar category and price range.

Regarding Jim's claims re. Tesla worship by shareholders, I do hold similar concerns for my clear judgement on TSLA and try to keep it in check.

I do it by reading bear arguments on Tesla, on some other sites. So far I see too many flaws in the thinking that backs bear arguments, but that could be due to reasons other than bears being wrong. Maybe they are just not articulate enough. I find it striking that most bears seem very biased to me, they seem to overlook or twist facts. On the other side, bears claim that longs are biased.

Jim may have a point there. I am concerned about my own bias re TSLA. It is not helping that TMC members seem to be not very diversified bunch. I certainly feel that I need to do much more to guard against my bias. Working on it.

 

[mershaw2001]

He makes a claim that BMW i3 is a competition to Tesla.

I had a look and sales numbers of BMW i3. Since BMW i3 is not production constrained, it can be assumed that their sales will be 8k-10k/year, if the current trend continues. BMW i3 seems to be drawing new customer base to BMW brand, and perhaps it could be valid competition to Tesla if Tesla had a car in similar category and price range.

Regarding Jim's claims re. Tesla worship by shareholders, I do hold similar concerns for my clear judgement on TSLA and try to keep it in check.

I do it by reading bear arguments on Tesla, on some other sites. So far I see too many flaws in the thinking that backs bear arguments, but that could be due to reasons other than bears being wrong. Maybe they are just not articulate enough. I find it striking that most bears seem very biased to me, they seem to overlook or twist facts. On the other side, bears claim that longs are biased.

Jim may have a point there. I am concerned about my own bias re TSLA. It is not helping that TMC members seem to be not very diversified bunch. I certainly feel that I need to do much more to guard against my bias. Working on it.

I agree Auzie. I've always been fearful of confirmation bias.

Looks like tesla just dropped off a cliff in AH and there's a 203xx printing now. I don't usually make much of the after hours trading because it's just retails flipping 10-50 shares. I wonder if some news just came out tho.