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I agree with both of you. That is why I like other views on TM presented in a respectful manner on this forum. We all (me included) can develop a herd mentality.
As to the current price. Without a negative catalyst I think we hold $200. I think it will take a positive catalyst...like the announcement of the Gigabattery site(s) to see us push through $210 in the next 10-14 days.
Quiet market: Everyone (bulls and bears) are having a tough case making sense out of the direction of the market. Yes, we are at ATHs for major indices and that may indicate an impending bear market but the economy is growing slowly and that slow growth could be sustainable for awhile leading to a steady bull market. Admitably, I have no idea. Family members that have been 'playing the market' for years are also quite lost at this point when it comes to market direction.
It's true we are at ATH- but the relative values are not. The GDP is significantly higher now than it was at the previous highs in 2008 before the crash. And interest rates are way lower on top of that AND we aren't anywhere near full output capacity - The market needs to either move significantly higher to form an overbought for pullback or (more likely) just grind higher from here as the economy proves itself out. Either way- without some crisis situation, there really isn't any significant place for the market to go but up or sideways imo. that's my view on it anyway
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
Agree with you Kenliles. Unemployment is down considerably compared to the past few years. China remains a concern, but seems to be a contained concern as of now. That's always got the possibility of metastasizing. Car sales are up. Home sales took a hit recently but they've been high, if I recall correctly. I think that the problem is that market critics get the most face time saying things are bad, and someone who says "yeah the market is doing alright and might gain another 1-5% this year" would not make good television.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Cramer has it all wrong. I don't worship Tesla. No I worship the Supreme Intergalactic Overlords who sent Elon Musk to us, riding on a hyperloop of pure light, to teach us ignorant and wholly unworthy earthlings how we can rise up from being an Earth-squandering race to becoming an interplanetary species. So you see my unshakable faith in Tesla's stock is well grounded in fundamentals.
Cramer uses dramatic expressions like 'worship', 'cult' to describe TSLA longs. If we look past the dramatic words, he may have a point that TSLA shareholders could be biased. Bias can be unconscious. I admit that I like TSLA stock more than other stocks. Cramer is just saying that shareholders need to separate emotional involvement with a stock from investment decisions, and that is well said but difficult to do.
In a recent interview a reporter made reference to the "Iron Man" character of the movies, asking Elon how he viewed himself. Elon adroitly responded that he saw himself as an engineer.
Elon's public speaking, and presentation are growing exponentially. He will need to be masterful considering how the media will treat him.
Elon's public speaking, and presentation are growing exponentially. He will need to be masterful considering how the media will treat him.
Once the market understands it, I believe it will be neutral or slight positive to stock price. However, initially, I agree it could be negative but I think we will have strong support at $200.
I believe Ken's take on APPL affecting money movement is a salient one. It is funny how psychologically buying 6-7 shares of APPL at roughly $93/share seems better than 1 share at $600. I have no stake in APPL but would consider diverting money into it. No logical reason but I, and the market, is not always logical!
pz1975
Active Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
I kinda like Tesla to be low hype and am happy if traders run after Apple or whatever else may be hot at the moment. The truth is that Tesla has a lot of serious investment ahead of it. I expect we'll need to start at least 3 gigafactories by 2020. This is key for locking in a long-term advantage before the EV disruption gets into full swing. So what we need are robust long-term investors, not flighty momentum traders. I know that this is the forum for short-term movements. I am not at all saying that smart trading and understanding the short-term movement are unimportant. What's important is that we not get sidetracked by these things. When things get quiet, that's the time to accumulate. When there is no wind, that's the time to pull out the oars and row. The gains will come. They will come as Tesla builds out its business and quietly secures its strategic advantages.
I actually don't quite agree with this. What a wall street guy might call "emotional" investment, I would call "fully informed, big picture" investment. Those who get mired in balance sheets and don't see the forest for the trees, don't see the vision, the passion of the customers, the passion and desire of the public, the inevitable future of mankind, etc. etc. etc., are missing out on all the best reasons for investing in a company. I do not consider these to be "emotional" reasons, but some might. It certainly sounds emotional when I talk about it right now, right? But no, these are rational decisions which I've come to from understanding trends in energy and transportation, the importance of customer loyalty, so on and so forth. I think all of us have similar reasons. And a lot of us saw these reasons before the world did, and that's why we managed to beat the rest of the world to the punch. To those who missed the boat, they can rationalize it by saying that we all just got "lucky" with out "devotion" to the "cult," or they can be realistic and understand that they missed the boat because they didn't see the signs which were right in front of them. But if their general MO is to look at balance sheets and not see the big picture, then, well, they're not going to just start now. They're going to keep thinking the same way, and try to come up with some way to rationalize their previous position.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The easy cure is to spend more time on Seeking Alpha :biggrin: Though of late the bear argument there has gotten even weaker.
Seeking Alpha is pretty boring of late. The same old bears with the same old tired misconceptions. I don't mind arguing the merits and demerits on a factual basis, but the perma-bears on Seeking Alpha have clung to some pretty precarious positions no matter what facts fly over their collective heads. Then, we get the neophytes that haven't bothered to read even a small iota of the hundreds of thousands of words written pro and con with respect to Tesla in the past 2 years. They'll charge in with a valuation argument looking at the P/E of GM or Ford and declare TSLA way overvalued. What is further interesting is that we seem to get some of the exact same bear arguments from pros that hop onto the likes of Bloomberg, CNBC, and so forth. I wonder if these pros even have research departments or are they really stuck in TA land or worse. What I can't gauge is if these people are really representative of the market - if so, then TSLA has a lot further to climb as their misconceptions are dissipated by news.
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Interesting that you say that. I was frequenting Seeking Alpha long before discovering TMC. If I try to read SA now, it feels like going back to kindergarten, at least on TSLA articles. SA have some good contributors but this site is much more informative on TSLA.
I used to follow it costly as well- but it's gone way downhill imo. Still has a decent news and alert feed; but the quality of contributor articles is way down. I stopped following a long time ago, but still subscribe to the alerts and very occasionally link to an article
pz1975
Active Member
Seems like a big inflection time right now and for the next week or so (in the absence of news). Will it hold 200 and make 200 even stronger as a resistance point or break through and likely drop to the low 190s and maybe even to the 170s?
In the abscence of negative company news or general macro need that would affect the whole market I think we bounce off any attempts to keep us under $200. We hit 199s I noted but as I write this it appears we bounced back up at $200 support line.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
It looks like you're right.
In the last week or so, I noticed that the movement in TSLA is more and more disconnected from the NASDAQ. It used to be that they would rise and fall in sync. Not to the same extent, but the highs and lows tended to be aligned. Lately, that correlation weakened, with today being completely broken.
Since NASDAQ is down today, obviously I'm not complaining, but I thought it was interesting enough to mention.
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