Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Cobos]

My guess is that Tesla will use this facility as a parts distribution warehouse which is what Chrysler used it as.

It is rather small at 400k square feet vs Fremont at 5.5 million square feet and the proposed Gigafactory at 10 million square feet.

I doubt they will use it for distribution, since it seems almost all the job listings are for CNC machine repair and use it seems. Being no expert on CNC machines I do believe they will make "stuff" at that Lathrop location. That's what CNC machines are for right? What kind of stuff that makes sense to make there instead of at Freemont or the gigafactory... no idea... Starting prototyping the production processes for the gigafactory already now makes a certain sense I suppose. That way the instructions and setup for the production line GF is ready as soon as it's installed I suppose.

Cobos

 

[FluxCap]

Catalysts Today that may not have hit the bots fully:

-Elon provides Gigafactory hints in Beijing -- "I would be surprised if Panasonic is not our partner" for Gigafactory.
-DB Recommends TSLA inclusion in the S&P500 -- "TSLA ranks number three of the largest U.S. companies not in the S&P 500"
-NFLX beat estimates like a boss and is up almost 8% on the news, potentially disproving some of the "momentum stocks should be devalued further" myth
-"Demand peaking" myth debunked -- Chinese customers are whining like greedy kids on Christmas morning that they can't get their Model S deliveries faster (like we all do here), Model X reservations in US are off the charts providing significant cashflow to Tesla, and I suspect the model S continues to outsell competition from Mercedes, BMW and Audi in USA on a quarterly basis.

Go go go.

*Caveat -- negative macroeconomic conditions may still suppress any company-specific positives, but this morning's response to last night's blowout Earnings Report by NFLX shows there is still significant demand for high-growth stocks in this economy.

 

[Muskol]

I doubt they will use it for distribution, since it seems almost all the job listings are for CNC machine repair and use it seems. Being no expert on CNC machines I do believe they will make "stuff" at that Lathrop location. That's what CNC machines are for right? What kind of stuff that makes sense to make there instead of at Freemont or the gigafactory... no idea... Starting prototyping the production processes for the gigafactory already now makes a certain sense I suppose. That way the instructions and setup for the production line GF is ready as soon as it's installed I suppose.

Cobos

You are correct, just took a look at the job postings. Definitely not a distribution warehouse.

 

[LakeForest]

Supercharger manufacture?

 

[farzyness]

I see little resistance between 211 and 217.50.

If we reach 217.50 and we break that level - I think it's marching on to ATH, and potentially breaking it with relative ease on positive ER.

 

[c041v]

I see little resistance between 211 and 217.50.

If we reach 217.50 and we break that level - I think it's marching on to ATH, and potentially breaking it with relative ease on positive ER.

I would be thrilled to let my puts expire worthless.

You really think a new ATH is in the cards with all the recent Macro news?

 

[FluxCap]

Hey look, my post let the bots know about the good news. Buyers are back.

 

[farzyness]

I would be thrilled to let my puts expire worthless.

You really think a new ATH is in the cards with all the recent Macro news?

The stock was valued at 265 without any clues re: Model X reservations, true demand in China, multiple Gigafactories, additional partners, etc. I think it's very doable.

 

[pz1975]

Hey look, my post let the bots know about the good news. Buyers are back.

Keep it up everyday! You are the anti-FUD.

 

[FluxCap]

Lunchtime flatline now. We'll see if the strength holds when bellies are full and get back to trading. Hope so.

Don't forget to take some profits off the table if you need to though with short-term calls. The market is a fickle beast and a couple bad moves by Putin and a few bad ER's in other NASDAQ stocks could send us down again any day.

All in all, a nice day to be a TSLA shareholder.

 

[MartinAustin]

I see TSLA is slightly up in pre-market hours. Why do I have the feeling that TSLA will open with a small gap up from yesterday's close, hit a high of 208, then drop off and stay deep in the red for the rest of the day?

...I can't remember ever reading a post from you that indicated you thought the stock would rise.

What is going on, is the stock has been dropping due to lack of buyers... firstly due to tax season, and secondly due to lack of news. News brings buyers. Now there is news... buyers are flocking back.

 

[joefee]

Shorts were warned 07-16-2013!

"I can see Model S/X selling 150K units worldwide with 3 shifts running full bore at 28% margin (price target 220)…in 3-4 years 500K units with GIII….6 yrs 1M units in two factories, with variants of GIII, S/X, Tesla Truck, new super-car with a NASCAR win GO Leilanie"

 

[FluxCap]

...I can't remember ever reading a post from you that indicated you thought the stock would rise.

What is going on, is the stock has been dropping due to lack of buyers... firstly due to tax season, and secondly due to lack of news. News brings buyers. Now there is news... buyers are flocking back.

Justthateasy's analysis is very valuable, and he certainly has predicted stock rises in the past. For what it's worth, I thought that today was going to be a lot worse for the market and TSLA after the opening bell as well. I was pleasantly wrong.

 

[InTheShadows]

Justthateasy's analysis is very valuable, and he certainly has predicted stock rises in the past. For what it's worth, I thought that today was going to be a lot worse for the market and TSLA after the opening bell as well. I was pleasantly wrong.

I agree I have come to really respect justthateasy's predictions. There have been many times he has been spot on. I have learned a lot from him.

 

[Twiddler]

Ditto to the above - much like many of us, justthateasy has been wrong at times, but the analysis is thought through and presented logically with data often used to support his/her thesis. Well thought out bear and bull arguments are what makes this thread extremely valuable.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

You are correct, just took a look at the job postings. Definitely not a distribution warehouse.

Careers | Tesla Motors

"Metal Recycling Production Associate - Lathrop Ca."
One of the responsibilities:
"Schedule pickups of recycled materials throughout the _Tesla machining campus_."

Together with all the machining jobs listed it seems it's simply going to be a parts manufacturing center. Having that extra facility means they can maximize Fremont's car output. It's a forward-looking move.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Have wondered over the past month why people buy on the early morning run up day after day, but pattern will stop at some point

I guess today explains it.

 

[FANGO]

I would be thrilled to let my puts expire worthless.

You really think a new ATH is in the cards with all the recent Macro news?

I would be thrilled to let the puts I wrote at the bottom expire worthless

 

[kenliles]

Eihorn (and no doubt many others) betting against mono stocks (wonder which ones those might be)

Greenlight's Einhorn says he's witnessing tech bubble, recently bet against a number of momentum stocks


ps- Tesla has a very challenging ER coming up- Suggest not considering ATH possibilities anywhere in the near future.

 

[farzyness]

Eihorn (and no doubt many others) betting against mono stocks (wonder which ones those might be)

Greenlight's Einhorn says he's witnessing tech bubble, recently bet against a number of momentum stocks


ps- Tesla has a very challenging ER coming up- Suggest not considering ATH possibilities anywhere in the near future.

If they up guidance from 35k and Model X and China demand coming in strong, then I think stock does nothing but go up.