Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Papafox]

The SpaceX CRS3 mission to resupply the space station was not only a success today, but on Friday it allowed the testing of a first stage booster that returned in controlled flight to earth and splashed down gently in the ocean, as planned. This news now allows Elon to shift his primary attention back to Tesla for a while. He'll be involved in China deliveries and working out a partnership for deployment of superchargers in the country. Elon's status as a rocket man doesn't hurt his bargaining ability with the Chinese, at all. If he can obtain the ability to launch loads into space at 10% the going rate, the Chinese would rather be friends with the man than knocking heads with him.

A successful China strategy will provide good news that should give stock prices a lift. A successful deployment in China will also add credibility to Tesla's expansion plans and calm some worries of potential gigafactory partners. Elon should have the time to concentrate on pulling the partnership together now. Once the gigafactory partners are lined up, we're in the catbird seat again.

 

[Auzie]

Perhaps we do get it because we obsess about it so much and absorb any bit of information the second it comes out.

It is my impression that people that do not get it (majority) often do not get it because they are much less informed. Most of them do not care to be informed, as they may have no interest in electric cars. Some analysts only see TSLA as just another 'momo' stock. I wonder how many analysts with no real interest in electric cars would spend their spare time reading about the battery technology, or similar.

One day the penny will drop.

 

[Jack6591]

The volume of negative articles (FUD) from seeking alpha has dropped significantly. The SA drop off is a magnitude greater than the change in sentiment on the TMC.

HMMMM.

 

[Auzie]

I am curious how is a drop in Seeking Alpha articles (FUD) measured?

There was mention sometime in the past by someone that they observed a correlation between SA FUD articles and price movements

 

[Twiddler]

Looks like the sparks are already starting to fly in China!

This goes to help affirm the suspicions of others that Tesla does indeed plan to manufacture in China in the relatively near-term

Musk Says Tesla Will Make Cars in China in Next 3-4 Years - Yahoo Finance

 

[FluxCap]

Looks like Elon might be starting up the good news train again on the way to ER. Here's hoping.

Earth Day: Tesla to celebrate its 100th Supercharger tomorrow with ribbon cutting ceremony in Hamilton NJ | Electrek

 

[Ugliest1]

Looks like Elon might be starting up the good news train again on the way to ER. Here's hoping.

Earth Day: Tesla to celebrate its 100th Supercharger tomorrow with ribbon cutting ceremony in Hamilton NJ | Electrek

Say, is that the prototype new shorter Gen III to the right of the grey Model S in the picture?

 

[FluxCap]

Say, is that the prototype new shorter Gen III to the right of the grey Model S in the picture?

Yes, if by prototype you mean random, bland Honda econobox with Jersey plates and a big R sticker?

 

[blakegallagher]

I hate how all of those charging locations have been Ice'd in that picture.

- - - Updated - - -

In a link off that page I could not help but notice this http://electrek.co/2014/04/18/tesla-has-had-new-gigafactory-partnership-inquiries-since-the-announcement/

“We are gratified by the level of enthusiasm our plans for the Gigafactory have generated from suppliers throughout the battery industry,” a spokeswoman for Tesla said in an email. “Since our announcement in late February, there has been tremendous interest from potential partners in collaborating on all aspects of the project. This has led us to take additional time to evaluate new inquiries along with our ongoing partnership discussions.”

It seems strange that this was not picked up by major media. Or maybe I have just missed it?

 

[Ugliest1]

Yes, if by prototype you mean random, bland Honda econobox with Jersey plates and a big R sticker?

Now that was a good response! Especially the "bland".

 

[EchoDelta]

s I am invested long term, I can afford to bury my head in the sand to avoid facing short term pain. Hopefully it is just a short term.

Same here
Although I have trouble rationalizing the LALALA CAN'T HEAR YOU TICKER strategy as rational , I tell myself an excess of reason is in itself a form of madness and my day goes fine.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I hate how all of those charging locations have been Ice'd in that picture.

- - - Updated - - -

In a link off that page I could not help but notice this Tesla has had new Gigafactory partnership inquiries since the announcement | Electrek

“We are gratified by the level of enthusiasm our plans for the Gigafactory have generated from suppliers throughout the battery industry,” a spokeswoman for Tesla said in an email. “Since our announcement in late February, there has been tremendous interest from potential partners in collaborating on all aspects of the project. This has led us to take additional time to evaluate new inquiries along with our ongoing partnership discussions.”

It seems strange that this was not picked up by major media. Or maybe I have just missed it?

Excellent dig; I think that this is very significant. It implies that the silence on GF is driven not by desperate attempts to patch things with Panasonic as I think it is being read by market, but by new offers on collaboration/partnerships which ostensibly open new opportunities that were not contemplated previously. I think wHen the final outcome is going to be released or leaked, the stock will react strongly.

 

[imherkimer]

TSLA seems to be a coiled spring right now. The opportunity is ripe. News will soon be driving strong interest, and the shorts have set themselves up again.

 

[techmaven]

Excellent dig; I think that this is very significant. It implies that the silence on GF is driven not by desperate attempts to patch things with Panasonic as I think it is being read by market, but by new offers on collaboration/partnerships which ostensibly open new opportunities that were not contemplated previously. I think wHen the final outcome is going to be released or leaked, the stock will react strongly.

I find the entire speculation of Panasonic's lack of commitment to be frustrating that it gains any real traction. We don't know that Panasonic hasn't committed behind closed doors. Since the total deal hasn't been announced, what is Panasonic supposed to say right now? If they are or they are not, it would sound the same to the outside. There are lots of additional potential partners including raw materials suppliers, cell tool manufacturing suppliers, and so forth. Further, that fact that little of this is settled in Q2 of 2014 shouldn't be an adverse risk.

For the short term, the production increases by Panasonic's factories in Osaka and the final Model X designs should be far more interesting as is the Q1 deliveries. Given that Europe looks really good, the negative spin is going to be on the U.S. sales regardless of the fact that Tesla is production constrained. It will be most interesting what Mr. Musk might say in China with the first deliveries.

 

[hobbes]

Since the total deal hasn't been announced, what is Panasonic supposed to say right now? If they are or they are not, it would sound the same to the outside.

I find the discussion frustrating, too. But they could have just said nothing - actively saying that they have not made a commitment could at the best be interpreted as negotiation tactics I think. Good that others seem to be interested.

 

[FluxCap]

I completely agree with techmaven, and just posted a few musings over in my megapost thread on the latest unchallenged FUD about Tesla Motors, and Paid-For-Journalism as a Tool for Marketing Insurgency On the Internet if anyone's interested.

 

[techmaven]

I find the discussion frustrating, too. But they could have just said nothing - actively saying that they have not made a commitment could at the best be interpreted as negotiation tactics I think. Good that others seem to be interested.

Apple seems to have that down... after getting beat up a lot, they are very comfortable saying we have nothing to say at this point in time. At AllThingsD conference or during their conference calls, they are far more comfortable than most at prefacing with "we do not discuss future product plans." That's not always the case with other people and other companies. They try to answer questions and I am often worried that Mr. Musk doesn't have a filter - he will try to answer the question, almost no matter how revealing.

As for Mr. Kazuhiro Tsuga's comments, it's hard to find the unfiltered version. Most of the reports are interpreted for us. I'd love to find an original transcript.

 

[hobbes]

Looks like Elon might be starting up the good news train again on the way to ER. Here's hoping.

Earth Day: Tesla to celebrate its 100th Supercharger tomorrow with ribbon cutting ceremony in Hamilton NJ | Electrek

More goodies from China, too! Shanghai store opening Wednesday and SC there and in Beijing this week:
Tesla is red hot in China, for different reasons - Page 8

 

[MikeC]

Big jump - what happened?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Big jump - what happened?

Just came to read about that too, no news. Volume just spiked and stock moved from 199.5 to 204.4 in a matter of minutes. Seems like some news, but nothing on my IB news feed either.