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Tesla's Supercharger Team was recently laid off. We discuss what this means for the company on today's TMC Podcast streaming live at 1PM PDT. You can watch on X or on YouTube where you can participate in the live chat.
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I've been here for a long time watching the investor discussions.
I have observed that when chatter in this section of the forum slows down (like in the last couple weeks, and during sell offs) it has been among the best times to buy.
Conversely, when discussion is churning and the share price is on the up it has been during peaks when it would have been a relatively bad (less good?) time to buy.
Just a thought for those of you on the fence about your next move and timing.
Personally I am holding steady. Core shares staying put, a few naked June Calls that are not doing great at the moment but there is still time.
I have observed that when chatter in this section of the forum slows down (like in the last couple weeks, and during sell offs) it has been among the best times to buy.
Conversely, when discussion is churning and the share price is on the up it has been during peaks when it would have been a relatively bad (less good?) time to buy.
Just a thought for those of you on the fence about your next move and timing.
Personally I am holding steady. Core shares staying put, a few naked June Calls that are not doing great at the moment but there is still time.
Can someone with a bit of time do a technical analysis and see if post frequency actually leads moving average tendencies and by how much? Having some early participation in Google FluTrends taught me it's tricky to correlate these things right. Unless you're implying causality in which case I'll give everyone a cut of my profits to post here every day
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Basically what you just stated is that there is a correlation between the amount of chatter and increase in share price (observation correct) and that buying shares at a lower price is better than at a higher price which goes without saying is correct. I'd be careful about making assumptions as to whether the amount of chatter here predicts how the share will move, or is a function of how the share has moved. If it's the latter, which I believe, than it might be easier to just look at the actual price and make your choices based on that
Citizen-T
Active Member
It's like when everyone is silent at the dinner table because people are too busy stuffing their faces with good food. People are too busy buying to talk...or maybe that's just me.
Also, there is reportedly a positive correlation between size of a town's FireDepartment and the number of blazes annually in that town. Conclusion: to prevent risk of conflagration, simply reduce number of firefighters. Umm. Maybe not?
I get what clmason is saying - he is just noting a correlation, not implying that there is causation. I have also noticed exuberance at the peaks, fear/panic during the drops, and eventually apathy/capitulation at the troughs. I remember things got real quiet around here when TSLA dipped under <120 for that day or two.
Yes, as long as the difference between correlation and causation is clear, what clmason observes can be another sign of what many people perceive and thus be one more tool to hold an ear to the ground, so to speak, one more straw up into the wind.
Only, please don't read more into it than the aggregate perception of many heads regarding trends, and don't base important decisions on that alone.
That's what the algobots are for, right?
Only, please don't read more into it than the aggregate perception of many heads regarding trends, and don't base important decisions on that alone.
That's what the algobots are for, right?
Can someone with a bit of time do a technical analysis and see if post frequency actually leads moving average tendencies and by how much? Having some early participation in Google FluTrends taught me it's tricky to correlate these things right. Unless you're implying causality in which case I'll give everyone a cut of my profits to post here every day
I have considered this myself. Is there a clever metadata analysis of TMC posts that would be interesting, such as:
Question 1) What is the frequency of happy words vs sad words vs stock price and
Question 2) What is the frequency of postings vs the stock price?
But, I am reasonably confident they would be lagging indicators. People post a lot of happy noise after it goes up.
edit: someone posted earlier that quiet times tend to be good times to buy. That is probably true, but you could as easily look at option IV for that as well.
There are studies linking sentiment on Twitter to market moves. Some interesting reading for quiet days.
Twitter mood predicts stock market, this paper claims that the Twitter mood, as measured by various text processing techniques, can be matched to shifts of DJIA index with a lag of 4 days.
The second paper also finds correlation, briefly “The paper showed that Twitter's topic based sentiment can improve the prediction accuracy beyond existing non topic based approaches."
Bloomberg article talks about hedge fund which incorporates twitter data into trading algorithms. I wonder how the fund is going so far.
My guess is that majority of Twitter users are not investors. That might somewhat dilute the correlation.
If the study were zoomed on investors sentiment only, we might get better predictability. Now the question is how to capture the sentiment of just that segment of society, market participants. Also the studies looked at predictability of large indices moves as it might be too difficult to link individual stocks moves to sentiment, just too many variables there.
TMC investors would not be a good representative of the whole market population, we are too small a sample. Measuring our mood only might not be sufficient for meaningful predictions. Also I am more interested in TSLA movements than general market movements. There is some correlation between the two, but that correlation can easily be broken by good or bad news.
Some news on gigafactory and news from China will lift my mood.:smile:
Twitter mood predicts stock market, this paper claims that the Twitter mood, as measured by various text processing techniques, can be matched to shifts of DJIA index with a lag of 4 days.
The second paper also finds correlation, briefly “The paper showed that Twitter's topic based sentiment can improve the prediction accuracy beyond existing non topic based approaches."
Bloomberg article talks about hedge fund which incorporates twitter data into trading algorithms. I wonder how the fund is going so far.
My guess is that majority of Twitter users are not investors. That might somewhat dilute the correlation.
If the study were zoomed on investors sentiment only, we might get better predictability. Now the question is how to capture the sentiment of just that segment of society, market participants. Also the studies looked at predictability of large indices moves as it might be too difficult to link individual stocks moves to sentiment, just too many variables there.
TMC investors would not be a good representative of the whole market population, we are too small a sample. Measuring our mood only might not be sufficient for meaningful predictions. Also I am more interested in TSLA movements than general market movements. There is some correlation between the two, but that correlation can easily be broken by good or bad news.
Some news on gigafactory and news from China will lift my mood.:smile:
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If we are to call peaks and troughs exclusively by looking at TMC post count/sentiment, then we are not yet at the bottom.
When TSLA dropped from $180 - $190 to $140 - $150, a lot of people here were calling it a buying opportunity. There were still some saying so when it dipped below $140.
But when the stock fell to $120 (and below) is when we hit "complete" silence. I don't recall many people calling it a great buying opportunity anymore. Even after DB came out and reiterated its PT of $200, people were still gun shy.
If I were to compare TMC now to November, then I would say that there are still too many optimists and too many people calling it a great buying opportunity. Therefore, using only TMC as a stock price indicator, I would say that TSLA still has a ways down to go. Maybe once it falls to about $160, we would get that complete silence and capitulation.
This is just my observation using TMC sentiment exclusively. I am not saying that TSLA is going to fall further because I don't believe that TMC is an early indicator or anything, but if I were investing purely on TMC sentiment then I would not be buying yet.
When TSLA dropped from $180 - $190 to $140 - $150, a lot of people here were calling it a buying opportunity. There were still some saying so when it dipped below $140.
But when the stock fell to $120 (and below) is when we hit "complete" silence. I don't recall many people calling it a great buying opportunity anymore. Even after DB came out and reiterated its PT of $200, people were still gun shy.
If I were to compare TMC now to November, then I would say that there are still too many optimists and too many people calling it a great buying opportunity. Therefore, using only TMC as a stock price indicator, I would say that TSLA still has a ways down to go. Maybe once it falls to about $160, we would get that complete silence and capitulation.
This is just my observation using TMC sentiment exclusively. I am not saying that TSLA is going to fall further because I don't believe that TMC is an early indicator or anything, but if I were investing purely on TMC sentiment then I would not be buying yet.
TSLA price action continues to be news (catalyst) driven. Good or bad, the events in China and the Gigafactory rollout will determine the short-term stock price.
I understand that, but some people here are talking about now being a quiet period on TMC similar to the trough period in November.
And I am saying that it was a lot quieter on TMC in November than it is now, that is all...
I think quietness here is more likely to be a consequence, not a cause. TSLA behaves like a yo yo. When it is up, investors become exuberant. When it is down, I just retreat and prefer not to think or talk about it. As I am invested long term, I can afford to bury my head in the sand to avoid facing short term pain. Hopefully it is just a short term.
Norbert
TSLA will win
There have been times when on TMC we had distinct advantages of having better information or understanding than "the public"/"Wall Street"/"analysts", of upcoming events or developments, and sentiment on TMC had predictive value, but this doesn't seem to be one of those times.
I don't know about this. I still think we do have an advantage because all of us obsess over this company so much and understand the "grand plan." Most people don't get it yet.
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