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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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I think a lot of people are hedging their bets somewhat. Especially those who got in at $153-$157 region lows. I personally used the run up to hedge my November $170's with November $190's. I've now lowered my break even to $181.4 with anything above netting a profit. Sure it's capped at $190, but I still have December, March and Jan '15 options. I may hedge half of my December options tomorrow if the price keeps going up to play it safer. Sure I might not have an utter blowout quarter with huge profits the coming weeks, but I'm also not risking 60% of my portfolio then ;) And that's I think what a lot of people might be doing determining the price action...
 
I think a lot of people are hedging their bets somewhat. Especially those who got in at $153-$157 region lows. I personally used the run up to hedge my November $170's with November $190's. I've now lowered my break even to $181.4 with anything above netting a profit. Sure it's capped at $190, but I still have December, March and Jan '15 options. I may hedge half of my December options tomorrow if the price keeps going up to play it safer. Sure I might not have an utter blowout quarter with huge profits the coming weeks, but I'm also not risking 60% of my portfolio then ;) And that's I think what a lot of people might be doing determining the price action...
Nice Mario.
Important to stay deciplined and stick with the strategy. My porfolio took a 40%+ hit from drop, now I'm almost at break-even and I have learned my lesson about hedging and not being greedy.
 
Nice Mario.
Important to stay deciplined and stick with the strategy. My porfolio took a 40%+ hit from drop, now I'm almost at break-even and I have learned my lesson about hedging and not being greedy.

Well my portfolio went from +20% (value $41k) to -30% (value $22k) during the last few weeks fiasco. I held strong and only sold to rebuy at a lower strike. Moved all of my Nov $190's to Nov $170's (half the count), Dec $190's to Dec $175's etc. I booked ca $7k losses in those moves but didn't consider it such because I was swapping N contracts at strike X with N/2 contracts at strike X-$20. With those moves I lowered my breakeven from $199 to $188. Todays hedge moved it lower to $181 region and my portfolio as a combination of good solar results and TSLA rebound is now at $34k (ca 1k above my net zero). I had invested ca $22k in TSLA (really 2/3 of my portfolio) and the rest in solars. End of last week the two components were worth the same showing how much solar had increased and tesla dropped. I for sure had committed far too much into TSLA so my strategy was try to hedge some of it before earnings and today I used trailing orders to sell the Nov $190's at various strikes on the way up averaging in the end at $5.12.

I was seriously contemplating cutting my losses, but the only reason I didn't was that I knew I had bought those options for post-ER movements and that underlying situation hadn't changed. The information had in fact gotten better over the weeks. So I held on. The worst part was when the portfolio dropped below $25k and tied my hands. Below that amount you lose day trading privileges and by default have 0 trades for 5 business days. So selling a higher strike call to buy a lower strike call will result in selling the higher strike call (as closing positions is allowed), but you're not able to pick up the lower strike one as that's opening a new position that you might close the same day and break the day trader rule. I gritted my teeth when the net liquidation was fluctuating around $25k and I had to wait to get the Dec $175's bought... Lost a couple of hundred there just by not being able to pick up the contracts where I planned.

Anyway, hedging is good. Can't get too greedy as it's better to have upside exposure, but reduce the risk somewhat. Especially if we might see $150 on Wednesday as well...

Back on track to this thread though. We finished above $175 setting us up for a very tight squeeze into earnings tomorrow. I think we'll be fluctuating around tomorrow, but will end up at the squeeze point of the two channels at the end of the day. If for what ever reason we break above the red channel we might have a run up into earnings, but I think people will hedge and we'll see a selloff at the end of the day (even though the last 30 minutes might be a rally again). In any case I sure as hell hope Tesla will provide me with a decent birthday gift as tomorrow is my birthday.

PS! I know I've got a very risky portfolio with 100% options and just a few stocks in two sectors, but I'm young (gonna turn 32 tomorrow) and I don't depend on the investment portfolio at all for my daily life so I'm trying to maximize the gain and I know that takes a lot of risk as well, am getting better at hedging my risks though ;)
 
Well my portfolio went from +20% (value $41k) to -30% (value $22k) during the last few weeks fiasco. I held strong and only sold to rebuy at a lower strike. Moved all of my Nov $190's to Nov $170's (half the count), Dec $190's to Dec $175's etc. I booked ca $7k losses in those moves but didn't consider it such because I was swapping N contracts at strike X with N/2 contracts at strike X-$20. With those moves I lowered my breakeven from $199 to $188. Todays hedge moved it lower to $181 region and my portfolio as a combination of good solar results and TSLA rebound is now at $34k (ca 1k above my net zero). I had invested ca $22k in TSLA (really 2/3 of my portfolio) and the rest in solars. End of last week the two components were worth the same showing how much solar had increased and tesla dropped. I for sure had committed far too much into TSLA so my strategy was try to hedge some of it before earnings and today I used trailing orders to sell the Nov $190's at various strikes on the way up averaging in the end at $5.12.

I was seriously contemplating cutting my losses, but the only reason I didn't was that I knew I had bought those options for post-ER movements and that underlying situation hadn't changed. The information had in fact gotten better over the weeks. So I held on. The worst part was when the portfolio dropped below $25k and tied my hands. Below that amount you lose day trading privileges and by default have 0 trades for 5 business days. So selling a higher strike call to buy a lower strike call will result in selling the higher strike call (as closing positions is allowed), but you're not able to pick up the lower strike one as that's opening a new position that you might close the same day and break the day trader rule. I gritted my teeth when the net liquidation was fluctuating around $25k and I had to wait to get the Dec $175's bought... Lost a couple of hundred there just by not being able to pick up the contracts where I planned.

Anyway, hedging is good. Can't get too greedy as it's better to have upside exposure, but reduce the risk somewhat. Especially if we might see $150 on Wednesday as well...

Back on track to this thread though. We finished above $175 setting us up for a very tight squeeze into earnings tomorrow. I think we'll be fluctuating around tomorrow, but will end up at the squeeze point of the two channels at the end of the day. If for what ever reason we break above the red channel we might have a run up into earnings, but I think people will hedge and we'll see a selloff at the end of the day (even though the last 30 minutes might be a rally again). In any case I sure as hell hope Tesla will provide me with a decent birthday gift as tomorrow is my birthday.

PS! I know I've got a very risky portfolio with 100% options and just a few stocks in two sectors, but I'm young (gonna turn 32 tomorrow) and I don't depend on the investment portfolio at all for my daily life so I'm trying to maximize the gain and I know that takes a lot of risk as well, am getting better at hedging my risks though ;)

Thank you for your detailed analysis and information on hedging your position. I'm trying to learn as much as possible with options in case of bad news. It's easy when the stock is skyrocketing, but you need to have protection from stupid stuff like October.

---Kent
 
Well my portfolio went from +20% (value $41k) to -30% (value $22k) during the last few weeks fiasco. I held strong and only sold to rebuy at a lower strike. Moved all of my Nov $190's to Nov $170's (half the count), Dec $190's to Dec $175's etc. I booked ca $7k losses in those moves but didn't consider it such because I was swapping N contracts at strike X with N/2 contracts at strike X-$20. With those moves I lowered my breakeven from $199 to $188.

When you say +20% is that +20% for the month or from when you initially invested?
I was at $32K at the start of Oct. and then hedged a bit, and bought back after the fire downturn, and the following day was upto $37K. I kinda feel stupid holding so many OTM calls now when we were clearly at the top of the channel, oh well, you live and learn..
But the last two weeks when we hit $153, my account dipped all the way down to $18K... I rode some of the downturn on the 2nd fire but closed out my puts too early, at $158 and then scrapped whatever remaining cash I had to buy some more at $153.
Thanks for the idea of rolling down the strikes, I did that as well, and really helped me feel a bit more secure about my positions.
That being said, I still am holding onto some $190s and $200s... Hopefully will get a chance to hedge them out tomorrow or better yet, see them be ITM before expiration. Positive sentiment is returning again to the stock it seems.

I was seriously contemplating cutting my losses, but the only reason I didn't was that I knew I had bought those options for post-ER movements and that underlying situation hadn't changed. The information had in fact gotten better over the weeks. So I held on. The worst part was when the portfolio dropped below $25k and tied my hands. Below that amount you lose day trading privileges and by default have 0 trades for 5 business days. So selling a higher strike call to buy a lower strike call will result in selling the higher strike call (as closing positions is allowed), but you're not able to pick up the lower strike one as that's opening a new position that you might close the same day and break the day trader rule. I gritted my teeth when the net liquidation was fluctuating around $25k and I had to wait to get the Dec $175's bought... Lost a couple of hundred there just by not being able to pick up the contracts where I planned.
What brokerage has that rule? I'm with E*Trade and IB, and I have never had that happen with either of them. I'm always able to close/re-open positions during the day...
In any case I sure as hell hope Tesla will provide me with a decent birthday gift as tomorrow is my birthday.

PS! I know I've got a very risky portfolio with 100% options and just a few stocks in two sectors, but I'm young (gonna turn 32 tomorrow) and I don't depend on the investment portfolio at all for my daily life so I'm trying to maximize the gain and I know that takes a lot of risk as well, am getting better at hedging my risks though ;)
Haha well happy birthday :) I just turned 21 last month so if your young, I guess I'm a baby :p
 
... I wouldn't bet against Elon. He's not a sandbagger, but he has a strong sense for the markets. He was saying 'Tsunami of hurt for the shorts' when there was doubt about Tesla's viability and he needed to show confidence, even brashness. The 5-part trilogy came when the first profit was announced and things were accelerating - he built on momentum.

I think it the result was better than they expected. Paying off the loan seemed like the suprise opportunity (and helped drive it up further).
He has this Willy Wonka quality about him where you know he's always thinking three steps ahead of everyone else, and he's curious who is intelligent enough to see what he sees...

That's great! But the original good Willy Wonka right?
 
Omg, the "bear" case (I say that in quotes for a reason) on Fast Money (link below) is soo terrible!! Its like just a bunch of idiots who have no idea what they are talking about! "Elon talked the stock down", "Overvalued by DCF", "i3 as a competitor", blah blah blah... I haven't heard so much nonesence spewed out by anyone in 30 seconds before... If this is the best the bears got then I better take of those hedged training wheels and let the bull run free!
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000214010&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo
 
Agreed. How do these guys not lose their ass investing being this uninformed. It's rare I read a bear opinion that has the facts straight. They are so focused on valuation they don't bother with understanding the company. This is why they get attacked by "musketeers" every time they write or spew something negative.
 
Agreed. How do these guys not lose their ass investing being this uninformed. It's rare I read a bear opinion that has the facts straight. They are so focused on valuation they don't bother with understanding the company. This is why they get attacked by "musketeers" every time they write or spew something negative.
At least the idiots on CNBC are finally saying the EV mkt is growing instead of saying its going to be useless and no one will buy evs etc...
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/bear-trap-money-tesla-analyst-204800912.html
 
He has this Willy Wonka quality about him where you know he's always thinking three steps ahead of everyone else, and he's curious who is intelligent enough to see what he sees. He's doing it again, or still, and there's no reason to think that story changes for the foreseeable future.


Yes, definitely Gene Wilder, not Johnny Depp.

Did you guys see that Elon just bought Gene Wilder's long-time home?

Elon Musk Buys Gene Wilder's Former House In Bel Air For $6.75 Million (PHOTOS)
 
When you say +20% is that +20% for the month or from when you initially invested?
I was at $32K at the start of Oct. and then hedged a bit, and bought back after the fire downturn, and the following day was upto $37K. I kinda feel stupid holding so many OTM calls now when we were clearly at the top of the channel, oh well, you live and learn..
But the last two weeks when we hit $153, my account dipped all the way down to $18K... I rode some of the downturn on the 2nd fire but closed out my puts too early, at $158 and then scrapped whatever remaining cash I had to buy some more at $153.
Thanks for the idea of rolling down the strikes, I did that as well, and really helped me feel a bit more secure about my positions.
That being said, I still am holding onto some $190s and $200s... Hopefully will get a chance to hedge them out tomorrow or better yet, see them be ITM before expiration. Positive sentiment is returning again to the stock it seems.

+20% of what I initially invested. I had a huge backlog of bad decisions to get rid of starting from this year where I moved to the IB platform. I had worked myself to zero before I started to invest more heavily in TSLA recently.

What brokerage has that rule? I'm with E*Trade and IB, and I have never had that happen with either of them. I'm always able to close/re-open positions during the day...

That is odd as I've understood this is a SEC rule for day trading that you get 3 day-trades in 5 trading days or account is locked. If you go above $25k in portfolio value you have unlimited day trades, but if your net value drops below it you lose any day trading ability and at 0 day trades left the IB platform refuses to open new positions.

Haha well happy birthday :) I just turned 21 last month so if your young, I guess I'm a baby :p

Heh, still remember when I was 21. Enjoy the remaining 4 years, after that the slow decline starts where your metabolism etc slows down and you can't eat anything you want etc ;)
 
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