Schedule for Autopilot features

[wk057]

P85D is updating...

Firmware 6.1 - Page 17

 

[Majerus]

I only tried with with acc on. I use acc everywhere. City. Highway. Etc.

Yea it will stop then , if not in cruise it will not at this point. The one thing I have started to notice is the car telling me cruise is unavailable when going like 30 or so not sure whats up with that.

 

[breser]

6.2 (in beta now, should be available for wide release in 10 days) will have automatic emergency braking and blind spot warnings.
Autodrive (steering wheel controlled by car) will come in about 6 months (version 7).

 

[donv]

6 months is pretty depressing... GM might well beat them to market.

6.2 (in beta now, should be available for wide release in 10 days) will have automatic emergency braking and blind spot warnings.
Autodrive (steering wheel controlled by car) will come in about 6 months (version 7).

 

[Stoneymonster]

6 months is pretty depressing... GM might well beat them to market.

I don't think that Tesla is competing with GM (yet).

 

[R²B]

Didn't they just say they're aiming for 3 month release cycles?

 

[iadbound]

6.2 (in beta now, should be available for wide release in 10 days) will have automatic emergency braking and blind spot warnings.
Autodrive (steering wheel controlled by car) will come in about 6 months (version 7).

I thought Musk said three months for v. 7. Of course, that's Elon time, so maybe you just added the appropriate delay:biggrin:

 

[breser]

I thought Musk said three months for v. 7. Of course, that's Elon time, so maybe you just added the appropriate delay:biggrin:

They said a 3-4 month release cycle, but said the steering stuff would be about 6 months out. So I'm guessing there is a release inbetween 6.2 and 7.

 

[wk057]

I'm not sure 11 months after delivery would qualify as all autopilot features being available in several months as stated on the order page at delivery.

If that's the case I'll likely be up in arms before then over the delay. It was pretty much assured to be available this summer by everyone I spoke with, which fit the "several months" advertised.

 

[donv]

Unfortunately, I think that's true-- and it's a bit pathetic on Tesla's part. Remember, six months of Elon time is at least a year in real time. People who bought cars "with Autopilot" will have been waiting for a year and a half for that promised functionality.

I don't think that Tesla is competing with GM (yet).

 

[Saghost]

Unfortunately, I think that's true-- and it's a bit pathetic on Tesla's part. Remember, six months of Elon time is at least a year in real time. People who bought cars "with Autopilot" will have been waiting for a year and a half for that promised functionality.

How is this?!? The first cars with Autopilot sensors were built in mid September 2014, and the first mention of Autopilot by Tesla was in the October 2014 "D" press release, right?

That's less than 6 months ago, so how have people been waiting for 18 months?
Walter

 

[breser]

How is this?!? The first cars with Autopilot sensors were built in mid September 2014, and the first mention of Autopilot by Tesla was in the October 2014 "D" press release, right?

That's less than 6 months ago, so how have people been waiting for 18 months?

The presumption in that post is that Elon's promise of the steering functionality in about 6 months means it won't actually arrive for a year. September - March is roughly 6 months. So that's how they're coming up with 18 months.

Not sure if I agree with the logic but my own predictions for this functionality is end of 2015. Which would indeed be waiting over a year for it. But I think that Elon's timeline may be more on target than people realize this time. Remember they already demonstrated this functionality in October, granted it was in a very controlled environment, but I'd guess they are well underway with it.

 

[iadbound]

They said a 3-4 month release cycle, but said the steering stuff would be about 6 months out. So I'm guessing there is a release inbetween 6.2 and 7.

Thanks for the clarification. I think the R&T blog messed this up a bit. Thus, my confusion.

Regardless, wouldn't Telsa want to get the autopilot features fully rolled out before shipping the Model X?

 

[Saghost]

The presumption in that post is that Elon's promise of the steering functionality in about 6 months means it won't actually arrive for a year. September - March is roughly 6 months. So that's how they're coming up with 18 months.

Not sure if I agree with the logic but my own predictions for this functionality is end of 2015. Which would indeed be waiting over a year for it. But I think that Elon's timeline may be more on target than people realize this time. Remember they already demonstrated this functionality in October, granted it was in a very controlled environment, but I'd guess they are well underway with it.

Fair enough. The first three times I read donv's post, I somehow missed the "will" in the final sentence, so I thought he was saying they had already been waiting that long - which seemed like such excessive hyperbole that I clearly needed to call it. Reading comprehension fail.

I could be wrong, but between the demo at the D event and the reports of driving the whole length of I-5 without help in this call, I'm thinking the 7.0 release will be a summer exercise - either in connection with the Model X rollout or shortly after it.
Walter

 

[breser]

I could be wrong, but between the demo at the D event and the reports of driving the whole length of I-5 without help in this call, I'm thinking the 7.0 release will be a summer exercise - either in connection with the Model X rollout or shortly after it.

6 months would be mid September. As much as I'm not as so pessimistic to think 6 months is a year in Tesla time. I also don't think 6 months is this summer either. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't push past 6 months towards Q4 rather than Q3.

 

[Pollux]

Having owned a P85+ since August, 2013, and having been a forum regular for 2-3 months prior, I now find all of these comments about Tesla software delivery schedules to be humorous. Tesla has no externally-visible predictability around software releases. The variation between dates promised and dates delivered is both large and highly variable. Same for content promised and content delivered. This new talk of a regular, frequent delivery schedule is simply just idle chatter until and unless demonstrated by actual deliverables on a regular cadence.

Sadly, I believe that this won't change until Tesla gets a very bloody nose from someone who gets really pissed off -- e.g., a buyer who purchases "Autopilot delivered over the next several months" and then has to wait well over a year for that promise to be made good. It pains me to see a company I so highly admire, with products I so greatly adore, kick itself in the nuts over and over again. You'd think eventually the pain signals would get through to the brain and they would at least try to aim at a different part of their own anatomy.

I suspect that Tesla software engineers are more cynical than even the average software engineer about promises versus deliveries.

Alan

 

[scottf200]

Traffic-signal/Stop-sign Detection: ??

Bef 2015: 40 signs in 25 countries
Beg of 2015: 250 signs in 50 countries
End of 2015: 1000 signs in 100 countries

Stoplight recognition in Model X? Some comments in the video below that indicate that possibility.

Source: The Future of Computer Vision and Automated Driving by Prof. Amnon Shashua - YouTube

 

[breser]

So now that v7 is out let's have an accounting of how I did on my predictions.

My bets, based largely on the assumption that they're going to roll out the things that help them on the safety ratings as quickly as possible:

Speed Assist and Lane Departure Warning: Now
ACC (Adaptive Cruise Control): December or January (very shortly after first D's start being delivered, I just can't see them delivering cars with hardware switches that do nothing for long)
Lane Holding (as demo'd yesterday): Q4 2015 (this goes beyond what the safety ratings want)
Auto Lane Change (as demo'd yesterday): Q4 2015 (this is really out there, may never make it to the car)
Blind-spot Warning: December of January (same software upgrade as ACC)
Collision Detect/Emergency Braking: December or January (same software upgrade as ACC)
Cross-Traffic Alert: duplicate this is blind-spot detection by another name.
Traffic-signal/Stop-sign Detection: End of 2015 (again way beyond what anyone else has, no hurry)
Self park: Q4 2015 (same update as lane holding/lane change)

So basically I see two updates.

One later this year or early next with ACC, Blind-spot warning, Collision detect/emergency braking.
One late next year with the other stuff.

ACC (Now known as TACC): I said January, it came out with 6.1 in early January. Hit this spot on.
Lane Holding: v7, Q4 2015, spot on.
Auto Lane Change: Was skeptical of this being released but put Q4 2015 own anyway.
Blind-spot Warning: Was off on this. Came out with 6.2 in late March.
Collision Detect/Emergency Braking: Was off on this. Came with 6.2 in late March.
Cross-Traffic Alert: Appears this was actually split. Calling this delivered with v7.
Traffic-signal/Stop-sign Detection: Remains to be seen. May v7.1?
Self park: Came with v7 but only for parallel parking, let's call this a 50% hit.

Other than blind spot/cross traffic detection I believe so far i'm pretty close. Maybe blind spot/cross traffic stuff comes out in release somewhere around Q2/Q3 2015? I don't see that bundled with a lot of fancier stuff in the original list.

A lot of my predictions were based on them trying to push out stuff for safety ratings, but based on what we now know the stuff they shipped with cars that had Autopilot hardware was enough to get them the 5 stars for Europe. So that I'm guessing that this stuff will be worked on but may not make it until just in time to fit in crash tests for the 2016 model year (when presumably standards will have been raised and what they have won't be enough to maintain 5 stars).

Was a little off on when the blind spot warning would come out with this later adjustment to my prediction. Still hit Q1 2015.

6.2 (in beta now, should be available for wide release in 10 days) will have automatic emergency braking and blind spot warnings.
Autodrive (steering wheel controlled by car) will come in about 6 months (version 7).

6 months would be mid September. As much as I'm not as so pessimistic to think 6 months is a year in Tesla time. I also don't think 6 months is this summer either. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't push past 6 months towards Q4 rather than Q3.

6 months was Tesla's prediction, I'd say 7 months is close enough to about 6 months. And I expected it to actually push slightly past that which it did.

So I'd say so far I've done a darn good job of my year old predictions.