Q1 Model X Sales will be lousy!

[pvogel]

First time ever selling a car privately. Usually trade in or lease expiration. I think it's funny that Bonnie sells her highly publicized sig 2 and is applauded. Someone else tries to sell their car and is vilified. Interesting.

Bonnie is selling #2 because she earned a Founders by Referral X and doesn't need two of them. (And she got an offer she would have to be insane to refuse)

 

[Nototrader]

And I'm very happy for her. And if I can sell mine for 40 above and the price I pay is waiting 6 months for another one, I deem that to be a great deal for ME. I'm not sure why I should be vilified for that. Btw, it's good for Tesla, it's good for the new owner who gets what he or she wants, and it's good for original Model X buyers....as maybe the initial new car price drop will take a bit longer. You never know where life takes you and when you need to make unwanted changes.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

First time ever selling a car privately. Usually trade in or lease expiration. I think it's funny that Bonnie sells her highly publicized sig 2 and is applauded. Someone else tries to sell their car and is vilified. Interesting.

You're buying your X to sell for profit.

Bonnie got her Sig 2 X and won another X. She chose which X to sell. She also long been a Roadster owner. People don't doubt her sincerity.

 

[ankitmishra]

In my opinion no need to criticize OP because he is going to sell his car. People criticize Tesla all the time. Just because OP has a motive that we know of doesn't disqualify him from discussions.

 

[ZachShahan]

Those doors will sell more new Xs than anything else once the cars are out on the road. If it means delaying for a bit to create the kind of buzz and sensation to sell more later, I'd take the delay any day of the week.

My problem with those doors are that they will attract too much attention at the school drop-off line and at parking lots. So as an introvert, I cringe at that. But it is EXACTLY that attention that will propel not just X sales, but the Tesla brand, into the future.

It shocks me how many people don't understand this... Thanks for the concise note.

 

[cantdecide]

I have no doubt that Tesla will ultimately sell many X and it will be a great success ... But they won't deliver many in q1 (I.e. in finance talk... Sales).

I configured my signature X on the first day possible and am still awaiting factory delivery. They probably only delivered 500 in January... and the first 2 weeks of Feb will be finishing off the sigs. Hence q1 might end with 2000 X deliveries which the market likely won't like having ended last year cranking out "hundreds per week".

 

[Nototrader]

I have no doubt that Tesla will ultimately sell many X and it will be a great success ... But they won't deliver many in q1 (I.e. in finance talk... Sales).

I configured my signature X on the first day possible and am still awaiting factory delivery. They probably only delivered 500 in January... and the first 2 weeks of Feb will be finishing off the sigs. Hence q1 might end with 2000 X deliveries which the market likely won't like having ended last year cranking out "hundreds per week".

Um. Thx. That is all I was trying to say, albeit less eloquently. I guess the fact that I'm a capitalist nullifies my educated opinion.

 

[eye.surgeon]

Those doors will sell more new Xs than anything else once the cars are out on the road. If it means delaying for a bit to create the kind of buzz and sensation to sell more later, I'd take the delay any day of the week.

My problem with those doors are that they will attract too much attention at the school drop-off line and at parking lots. So as an introvert, I cringe at that. But it is EXACTLY that attention that will propel not just X sales, but the Tesla brand, into the future.

One of the things that appealed to me about the MS was the simplicity of the design, which I hoped would result in trouble-free ownership (and it has, 13 months zero returns to service center). I don't see gee-whiz lambo doors as respecting that design ethos. It might sell some cars but not to me. But then again I think the ludicrous and insane modes are silly distractions also, so I may be an outlyer.

 

[Marcos]

One of the things that appealed to me about the MS was the simplicity of the design, which I hoped would result in trouble-free ownership (and it has, 13 months zero returns to service center). I don't see gee-whiz lambo doors as respecting that design ethos. It might sell some cars but not to me.

One of the most common fallacies you'll see anywhere when discussing product is the one that goes like this, "it doesn't appeal to ME, so it won't do so well." No one cares what YOU think, or what *I* think. The market is made up of millions of individuals all making their choices based on their own specific circumstances.

Like I said, as an introvert, I'd prefer something less flashy. Not only do I not want to draw attention to myself, but I also don't want to draw attention to my financial status. That's why I've never driven a car that cost more than $25,000 and I'm approaching 50. But objectively speaking, there's just no doubt that the FWD are a major success. As noted upthread, just about every photo of the car features open FWDs. Every video about it lingers disproportionately over those doors. Existing owners love to talk about those doors, and people they run into want to talk about those doors.

But they're not just cool and functional and attention-grabbing—they are so audacious, that the fact the car is electric is almost an afterthought. It's like, "yeah yeah, electric, but did you see those doors?" And normalizing the idea of having an electric car has to be part of Tesla's mission and that of those of us who are fighting for a cleaner and healthier planet. If we change the conversation from "how do you get from A to B without running out of juice" (thanks Model S!) to "how amazing are those doors?," everyone wins. And it seems we are already headed down that path. So I'm willing to bet that a few years down the road, those doors will be a key defining characteristic of the Tesla brand, so much so, that given the option (which might be the case with the 3), people will aspire for the FWDs as an upgrade.

And you might not like that, and other people who love to tell us they hate those doors might not like that, but in the end, the market will either embrace them or (always a real possibility) they won't. And if your position is held by enough people, so much so that a real market need exists, then either Tesla or someone else will work to fill it.

Now to be clear, I'm not suggesting that your criticism is unwarranted, or that it's bad to say "Tesla, you fill me needs better if you do X". And this particular comment isn't off-putting (you admit that you might be an "outlier"), so I don't mean to be picking on you, because I'm not. But so many others will do the "I hate it so Tesla screwed up!", whether it's regarding these doors, or the big windshield, or the lack of folding middle-row seats (which is my biggest personal gripe), when in reality, none of us know whether Tesla screwed up until we see what X sales look like down the road, not just in fulfilling pre-orders (how many cancelled?), but in new sales as well.

Personally, I think the FWDs are marketing genius, worth more than 1,000 Super Bowl ads. The degree as to how much I or any other individual likes them (or not) is irrelevant in that calculation.

 

[ankitmishra]

@Marcos
Well said.

 

[CTemp222]

One of the most common fallacies you'll see anywhere when discussing product is the one that goes like this, "it doesn't appeal to ME, so it won't do so well." No one cares what YOU think, or what *I* think. The market is made up of millions of individuals all making their choices based on their own specific circumstances.

But objectively speaking, there's just no doubt that the FWD are a major success. As noted upthread, just about every photo of the car features open FWDs. Every video about it lingers disproportionately over those doors. Existing owners love to talk about those doors, and people they run into want to talk about those doors.

But they're not just cool and functional and attention-grabbing—they are so audacious, that the fact the car is electric is almost an afterthought. It's like, "yeah yeah, electric, but did you see those doors?" And normalizing the idea of having an electric car has to be part of Tesla's mission and that of those of us who are fighting for a cleaner and healthier planet. If we change the conversation from "how do you get from A to B without running out of juice" (thanks Model S!) to "how amazing are those doors?," everyone wins. And it seems we are already headed down that path. So I'm willing to bet that a few years down the road, those doors will be a key defining characteristic of the Tesla brand, so much so, that given the option (which might be the case with the 3), people will aspire for the FWDs as an upgrade.

And you might not like that, and other people who love to tell us they hate those doors might not like that, but in the end, the market will either embrace them or (always a real possibility) they won't. And if your position is held by enough people, so much so that a real market need exists, then either Tesla or someone else will work to fill it.


Personally, I think the FWDs are marketing genius, worth more than 1,000 Super Bowl ads. The degree as to how much I or any other individual likes them (or not) is irrelevant in that calculation.

I completely agree, the FWDs will be a major identifier of the Tesla brand, especially since one of the versions of the model 3 will be a smaller CUV.

 

[AlMc]

One of the most common fallacies you'll see anywhere when discussing product is the one that goes like this, "it doesn't appeal to ME, so it won't do so well." No one cares what YOU think, or what *I* think. The market is made up of millions of individuals all making their choices based on their own specific circumstances.

Like I said, as an introvert, I'd prefer something less flashy. Not only do I not want to draw attention to myself, but I also don't want to draw attention to my financial status. That's why I've never driven a car that cost more than $25,000 and I'm approaching 50. But objectively speaking, there's just no doubt that the FWD are a major success. As noted upthread, just about every photo of the car features open FWDs. Every video about it lingers disproportionately over those doors. Existing owners love to talk about those doors, and people they run into want to talk about those doors.

But they're not just cool and functional and attention-grabbing—they are so audacious, that the fact the car is electric is almost an afterthought. It's like, "yeah yeah, electric, but did you see those doors?" And normalizing the idea of having an electric car has to be part of Tesla's mission and that of those of us who are fighting for a cleaner and healthier planet. If we change the conversation from "how do you get from A to B without running out of juice" (thanks Model S!) to "how amazing are those doors?," everyone wins. And it seems we are already headed down that path. So I'm willing to bet that a few years down the road, those doors will be a key defining characteristic of the Tesla brand, so much so, that given the option (which might be the case with the 3), people will aspire for the FWDs as an upgrade.

And you might not like that, and other people who love to tell us they hate those doors might not like that, but in the end, the market will either embrace them or (always a real possibility) they won't. And if your position is held by enough people, so much so that a real market need exists, then either Tesla or someone else will work to fill it.

Now to be clear, I'm not suggesting that your criticism is unwarranted, or that it's bad to say "Tesla, you fill me needs better if you do X". And this particular comment isn't off-putting (you admit that you might be an "outlier"), so I don't mean to be picking on you, because I'm not. But so many others will do the "I hate it so Tesla screwed up!", whether it's regarding these doors, or the big windshield, or the lack of folding middle-row seats (which is my biggest personal gripe), when in reality, none of us know whether Tesla screwed up until we see what X sales look like down the road, not just in fulfilling pre-orders (how many cancelled?), but in new sales as well.

Personally, I think the FWDs are marketing genius, worth more than 1,000 Super Bowl ads. The degree as to how much I or any other individual likes them (or not) is irrelevant in that calculation.

Excellent, well thought out post. I agree that from a marketing standpoint that the FWDoors are a net positive and I share your views that they are ostentatious. It is all opinion though and we will never know *IF* TM would have been just as well off bringing out the X months ( maybe even a year) earlier without such doors.

*IF* (big IF) we can agree that our (TM and we supporters of the mission statement) goal is to get to the model3/mass market EV,... was it a good use of time/engineering expertise/money to come out with an X with FWDs?

We can all have our opinions about that but it is a question no one can answer as a *fact*. I admit I do not know the answer.

 

[CTemp222]

was it a good use of time/engineering expertise/money to come out with an X with FWDs?

It was probably a combination of marketing and Elon not willing to compromise, I think that once Elon has a great idea he sticks with it even if it is 5 times more difficult to accomplish than any of the other ideas. This is what makes him great, his willingness to make something harder so that the end result will be amazing.

 

[Todd Burch]

A little perspective: It took about 6 months for Tesla to deliver 1500 Model S's.

 

[nienco2]

Those doors will sell more new Xs than anything else once the cars are out on the road. If it means delaying for a bit to create the kind of buzz and sensation to sell more later, I'd take the delay any day of the week.

My problem with those doors are that they will attract too much attention at the school drop-off line and at parking lots. So as an introvert, I cringe at that. But it is EXACTLY that attention that will propel not just X sales, but the Tesla brand, into the future.

approximately 50% of adults self identify as introverts and may feel just like you fwiw

 

[pvogel]

There are different levels of introversion. I alternate regularly between borderline extravert and borderline introvert. I have no problem at all engaging with people who have a shared interest with me. Tesla definitely falls into that category

 

[CTemp222]

approximately 50% of adults self identify as introverts and may feel just like you fwiw

Which research paper are you citing? :tongue:

 

[nienco2]

Which research paper are you citing? :tongue:

Nevermind...everyone likes to draw attention to themselves I guess.

 

[CTemp222]

Nevermind...everyone likes to draw attention to themselves I guess.

It was meant to be more as an informal comment, there's probably not a lot of studies of this topic and if there is they're subjected to a lot of bias I would imagine.

 

[Martin VanB]

I appreciate that we have strayed from the topic. I apologize for this story.
I once purchased an item that I saved up for and was very proud to own. I purposely chose the understated model because I did not want any attention. I realized that I liked when people would talk to me about the item. Yet because it is so understated that would rarely happen. I am trying to say that my belief is people will like the falcon wing doors because they will become an opportunity to be social and engage others in a positive manner. I not one to make chit chat easily but I realize I enjoy talking to people about things I like because the conversation comes easily to me. I believe the unique nature of the Model X Falcon Wing Doors will result in many pleasant owner interactions with non Tesla owners improving the Tesla owner experience and reinforcing ownership satisfaction. For what it's worth I think Model X sales will be appropriate for reasonable expectations.