Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing

[bmek]

Not to burst anyone's "now I'm going to get my car soon" bubble, but talked with a couple of folks at Tesla today as I have entered my already-been-revised-twice delivery window and have heard nothing.

FYI I'm Sig #371, returned my MVPA the day I got it back in May.

Per Tesla I am NOT one of the special 28 cases, that this is how they are all going. No VIN, and in somewhat of a specialist limbo.

If I understand this correctly, you are S371 and haven't got your VIN yet. However, dogface S448 and AndrewWolfe S508 both have their VINs. That seems unusual and inconsistent.

Any idea why you haven't received your VIN and they have?

As a shareholder, there is NO WAY this company is going to make their earnings in this next quarter. I have, as the rest of you, been hearing about this storied ramp up that is suppose to be occurring. However, if they can't get to Sig #371 until at least November, there will be no chance they will hit their already revised downward 3000 cars by end of December.

The earnings announcement for Q3 is scheduled for Monday, 11/05/12, after the markets close and they should give guidance regarding Q4. If they are going to miss the guidance in their SEC filing dated 09/28/12 of FY2012 revenue of $400 to $440 million and 2,500 to 3,000 in deliveries (not production but actual customer deliveries) then they should be making that announcement on the 11/05/12 call (if not before the call).

I believe there will be a delivery bottleneck with the Signatures and TSLA will encourage as many Production reservations to take factory delivery prior to the end of the quarter (12/31/12) so they can recognize the revenue (and the owners can take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit in 2012).

There could be tsunamis flowing both ways in this ocean ...

 

[Jrhodesmd]

No idea on the VIN. No one I've talked to at Tesla has any idea either, and that is, again as a shareholder, a worrisome thing. I get the feeling that things may be worse than they are letting on, that upper management is keeping the specialists in the dark, and that the specialists are being told "just apologize, keep an upbeat and optimistic tone, and try to keep the customer enthusiastic." They talk a lot to you but actually tell you nothing. That may work when dealing with general car customers, but I think a lot of us "early adopters" are further up the bell curve in intelligence (then again, maybe not...) - which makes it very hard to swallow bullshit when it is served to you with a smile by a 25 yo kid and told its apple pie (okay, kind of hoakie, just made that up.). Reminds me of a great line from the highly cerebral movie "Billy Madison" :
"Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
I just want an honest answer. GB is kind to issue this letter, but guys and gals, did we really learn anything that readers of this blog didn't already know? The truth is the cars aren't getting made for multiple reasons, tesla is scared because they are shorted big time and if that gets out the stock will crash and confidence will be lost, reservation holders will start to flee, and image will get tarnished. It just sucks to be caught in the middle of it with tesla holding $40k worth of my cash.

 

[timdorr]

No idea on the VIN. No one I've talked to at Tesla has any idea either, and that is, again as a shareholder, a worrisome thing. I get the feeling that things may be worse than they are letting on, that upper management is keeping the specialists in the dark, and that the specialists are being told "just apologize, keep an upbeat and optimistic tone, and try to keep the customer enthusiastic." They talk a lot to you but actually tell you nothing. That may work when dealing with general car customers, but I think a lot of us "early adopters" are further up the bell curve in intelligence (then again, maybe not...) - which makes it very hard to swallow bullshit when it is served to you with a smile by a 25 yo kid and told its apple pie (okay, kind of hoakie, just made that up.)..

It's not quite as doom-and-gloom as you might think. They were at 359 cars produced on 10/3 as per Elon's blog post. DrComputer updated us on 10/15 with a VIN as high as 650 on the production floor. That's 300 in <2 weeks, which means they're definitely pushing the ramp up to somewhere just shy of 200 per week.

And like I've said before, if they can do a 100->150->200->250 ramp for October, that will mean 700 cars produced this month, which is enough to put us at 1000 total produced, or all the Signatures completed in October. But they've said they're in the steepest part of the ramp and 50+ per week isn't actually all that steep (given they were at ~25+ per week in September and the upper end of the ramp is 400/wk). There's been a supplier hiccup recently, but that appears to not be holding up the line. That means they are likely continuing to ramp up quickly and the new parts appear to be starting to flow (based on some new delivery activity I've seen).

Again, I fully expect them to have the Sig line mostly completed in 2 weeks and have them moving on to production cars early in November.

 

[Krugerrand]

The truth is the cars aren't getting made for multiple reasons,

This is not true and for someone who claims to deal in reality and facts...well, it's against the rules to say what needs to be said to you for stating such a blatant untruth. Cars ARE being made. YOUR car isn't being made, or YOUR car has been made and not passed inspection, or was being made then something happened and it wasn't finished, or, or, or...

tesla is scared because they are shorted big time

Where does that come from? I think it comes from 'you'. I've not heard anything from Tesla that they are scared because they are one of the most shorted stocks. Indeed, the CEO has been rather brash in his comments about the shorts and certainly has never shown any 'fear' because of it.

When your car is delivered and you're as happy a camper as everyone else who's received their car, I'll be reminding you of your posts in this thread. :wink:

 

[Arnold Panz]

but I think a lot of us "early adopters" are further up the bell curve in intelligence (then again, maybe not...)

Hey! I resemble that remark!

 

[Arnold Panz]

If I understand this correctly, you are S371 and haven't got your VIN yet. However, dogface S448 and AndrewWolfe S508 both have their VINs. That seems unusual and inconsistent.

Any idea why you haven't received your VIN and they have?

.

I'm Sig 304 and haven't gotten a VIN. Probably because I haven't asked. I'm not sure what difference it makes if I know my VIN, so I haven't even asked for it. I'm sure all those cars have VINs, but they probably only tell people ad hoc either when they ask or just if its something that the delivery specialist decides to include in the communication with us.

 

[Larry Chanin]

No George is not saying there is a new 4 to 6 week delay.[...]


George is just saying that some early reservation holders have experienced the worse delays of up to 6 weeks.

Larry

Larry, I don't necessarily come to that conclusion from the quote you provided.

Edit: WHOOPS! Sorry Larry...I just missed the negative in your post...I agree with you!

Hi Todd,

I'm glad we're on the same page. To underscore my point. A few hours ago my Delivery Experience Specialist called me. He had bad news and good news. The bad news was that my delivery window has been delayed. The good news is that its only two weeks. :wink:

Larry

 

[Cattledog]

and TSLA will encourage as many Production reservations to take factory delivery prior to the end of the quarter

They should incentivize it. Make it their version of a European Delivery program. One night hotel, factory tour, plane ticket(s) or travel allowance, t-shirt, cap, whatever. Or just waive the $990 charge.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

and TSLA will encourage as many Production reservations to take factory delivery prior to the end of the quarter

They should incentivize it. Make it their version of a European Delivery program. One night hotel, factory tour, plane ticket(s) or travel allowance, t-shirt, cap, whatever. Or just waive the $990 charge.

That would be awesome! and not just because I live in CA. I always though the way to get a BMW would be to go to Germany and spend a couple of weeks visiting and driving a new car on the Autobahn then going home and receiving the car. And I think It ends up potentially cheaper (from what I have heard)

But...i think it is really cool that people living in BFE will be able to get their car delivered for the same price!

I Will get mine from the factory and hope it helps Tesla( or those living in far away land). My specialist said he left a note in my file when I told him.

 

[JakeP]

Heck I'd be happy to cover my own travel costs to get a factory tour, hand Tesla my check, get the delivery specialist walkthrough, drive my car around a bit, and then head home and wait for my car to be trucked back to the East Coast. Tesla gets their revenue sooner, I get to see the factory, and the delivery bottleneck is eliminated because I came to CA to see the DS staff on site. Maybe it even lets me place the car in service in 2012, for the additional financial benefit. Or are there too many logistical difficulties here, related to plates/registration/insurance?

 

[aviators99]

Considering my personal tax consequences of not getting my car in 2012, I would fly to Fremont and ship it to Miami myself if it would make the difference.

 

[Mycroft]

Considering my personal tax consequences of not getting my car in 2012, I would fly to Fremont and ship it to Miami myself if it would make the difference.

No you wouldn't. Because you would then have to pay California sales tax.

 

[Arnold Panz]

No you wouldn't. Because you would then have to pay California sales tax.

Sales tax in Florida is 6% -- what is it in California?

 

[Jrhodesmd]

Krugerrand: Ouch! So emotional. I enjoy a good debate as much as the next person, but the "liar, liar, pants on fire" defense was used a little early. This isn't the Presidential Debate. All joking aside, everything I said was fact. Think about it - I have nothing to gain and a lot to lose by it not being so. Anyways, facts are only as good as their sources. Maybe yours are better than mine. I truly hope so, for my S, X, and stock's sake, as well as the rest of ours. That is my attempt at hugging this out. Back to forum surfing to satiate my Tesla OCD until my car arrives....

Arnold: Yeah, I really wasn't that hung up on the whole VIN thing either until my original Delivery Specialist made kind of big deal about it. My understanding from him was that because of Texas's archaic car dealership laws, they couldn't just deliver my car and I write them a check. Evidently they have to issue a VIN first, then the final delivery paperwork could be filed, and then I would need to wire Tesla the final balance before they would even consider loading the car on a truck for delivery to Texas. Otherwise, it is considered a direct sale of a car from a manufacturer to a customer, which is illegal without a third party dealer in Texas. If it weren't for that I agree, I wouldn't care about the actual VIN itself.

 

[colinb]

You live in Ottawa, why don't you go know on TC's doors and ask them what the hold up is...
All kidding aside, I wonder if we could just give them a ring and get any information...

Our tax dollars hard at work doing a whole lot of nothing I suspect. The MTO in Ontario is already prepped with the Model S on the list of EVs which is surprising given that I would expect the provincial side to working on less funding than the federal counterparts.

 

[aviators99]

Sales tax in Florida is 6% -- what is it in California?

Looks like it's 8.75% in Fremont. So, only an additional 2.75%, which is less than $7500, possibly even with the shipping costs.

 

[elecblue]

I'm Sig 304 and haven't gotten a VIN. Probably because I haven't asked. I'm not sure what difference it makes if I know my VIN, so I haven't even asked for it. I'm sure all those cars have VINs, but they probably only tell people ad hoc either when they ask or just if its something that the delivery specialist decides to include in the communication with us.

AP - the VIN is actually very important to me. I'm financing a decent chunk of the purchase (50% or so), and per the credit union my application is effectively on hold until I can provide a VIN. It's a formality and they've assured me that it won't affect the loan or the rate (at least for 90 days), but the remaining 1-2 weeks (perhaps shorter) of time to complete the loan and get a check cut to Tesla Motors is all hanging on getting a VIN. So, it's an important item for me. The credit union has noted that this is a necessary step since the Tesla Model S is not in their portfolio of new cars due to the newness/low volume.

 

[Krugerrand]

Krugerrand: Ouch! So emotional. I enjoy a good debate as much as the next person, but the "liar, liar, pants on fire" defense was used a little early. This isn't the Presidential Debate. All joking aside, everything I said was fact.

And you're going to pull out the 'emotional' card? What you said wasn't fact.

Think about it - I have nothing to gain and a lot to lose by it not being so. Anyways, facts are only as good as their sources. Maybe yours are better than mine. I truly hope so, for my S, X, and stock's sake, as well as the rest of ours.

Consider that some people have even more to lose than you, and when you make statements like you did it has potential to do a lot of harm. There are a lot of people wanting to see Tesla fail. They visit this site and they pull posts from here all the time to use as fodder for their arguments. I understand you're frustrated, anxious, 'fill in word of choice', but it doesn't help Tesla, you, me and everyone else who has a stake in this when you state things as facts that aren't.

 

[Arnold Panz]

AP - the VIN is actually very important to me. I'm financing a decent chunk of the purchase (50% or so), and per the credit union my application is effectively on hold until I can provide a VIN. It's a formality and they've assured me that it won't affect the loan or the rate (at least for 90 days), but the remaining 1-2 weeks (perhaps shorter) of time to complete the loan and get a check cut to Tesla Motors is all hanging on getting a VIN. So, it's an important item for me. The credit union has noted that this is a necessary step since the Tesla Model S is not in their portfolio of new cars due to the newness/low volume.

OK, got it. I never knew that about the loan issue. I thought it was just a car lover's thing of wanting to know your VIN, and having the lower VIN the better, or some such thing.

I have to say, if you explain this loan issue to the folks at Tesla (your delivery specialist, or really anyone in a store, on email or on the phone), they will make every effort to accommodate requests like this. If you logically explain why you need certain information, they will make the extra effort to get you the information. I was pretty keen on knowing whether I'd get delivery by mid-September (Ha!) because I had to renew my current car's registration, AAA membership etc., so told them I needed to know as soon as they knew. They told me around mid-August that I was looking at October for delivery (Ha, again!), and I was truly appreciative of them letting me know so I could make arrangements with my current car accordingly.

The folks at Tesla on the front lines are awesome and doing their best under tough circumstances. I'm glad GeorgeB finally communicated with the Sigs, but as others have noted, he pretty much could've sent the same note a month ago, and didn't tell us anything we didn't already know. Meanwhile, the Tesla employees interacting with reservation owners have been taking all of the bullets on Tesla's behalf, and for issues that they have no control over. I'm really sympathetic to what they've had to deal with these last few months.

 

[Norbert]

To me it sounds like issues which made things rather unpredictable are getting resolved right now, but it is too early to say for sure. However once that has happened, things become more predictable (by degree), and then it makes sense to try to give better/new estimates. And that they avoid too specific official statements since things are still in flux a lot, and what it looks like on one day may be obsolete the next day. That's just the nature of a ramp up.