List of all June 20th announcement hints

[mgemmell]

... The HOW, not the WHETHER...

Great to see this discussion come round again. We had a good debate about these things last year (Project Better Place).

The HOW really isn't such a mystery. Better Place did that already, and with a worse designed battery (and car IMHO) they turned the battery round in just a few minutes.

The economics and marketing will be fascinating though. Man! I love following Tesla and Elon.... what an awesome time to be around guys! You gotta realize this is like watching the 1984 Mac launch, ipod launch and iphone launch all rolled up into one calendar year!!

 

[callmesam]

http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/pdf/Treasury2013ModelYearZEVlisting.pdf

The above link shows that Tesla Model S 85 kwh is a type V (5) vehicle. Type V vehicles must meet fast refueling requirements (per http://docs.nrdc.org/energy/files/ene_10070701a.pdf ), and are worth 7 ZEV credits.

The Air Resources Board of Cali held a recent public meeting on tweaking the ZEV regulation. One of the things they are changing is disqualifying battery swapping as "fast refueling". I asked them if anyone was making cars that were currently getting ZEV credits from battery swapping. They said yes. I can't think of who this could be other than Tesla, though this wasn't specifically confirmed, and I didn't specifically ask.

So these two things make me think Tesla is already getting 7 ZEV credits for the 85 kwh.

This is just from my own research. Not an expert on this, so maybe someone will contradict me.

I agree with your reading completely.

As far as NJ is concerned, Tesla 85kw is a class V Fast Charging vehicle entitled to 7 credits. The 60kw is a class IV, entitled to only 5 credits. However, this distinction looks to be based on distance traveled on a single charge. (see page 17 of the NRDC report)

But if the swap is a frunk Metal-Air cartridge type, then the 60kw could be reclassified to receive more credits due to additional miles being on-board.

Perhaps.

- - - Updated - - -

So Elon shows off a traditional swap.

Oohs and aahs. [But a little anticlimatic]

He then announces that the pack swapped was actually a 120kw battery that will be available at your nearest service station before you leave on a long road trip and will take you 400 miles at steady 55mph. It will cost $5/day that you need to use it.

That way you only have to stop at every 3rd (or 4th) Supercharger.

Then he announces that it will also be available as an upgrade for ANYONE who purchased a Tesla (40, 60 or 85) for $7500.

They will keep your personal pack, recharge it and use it as a grid buffer/tie-in while you are on your road trip.

 

[Johan]

So Elon shows off a traditional swap.

Oohs and aahs. [But a little anticlimatic]

He then announces that the pack swapped was actually a 120kw battery that will be available at your nearest service station before you leave on a long road trip and will take you 400 miles at steady 55mph. It will cost $5/day that you need to use it.

That way you only have to stop at every 3rd (or 4th) Supercharger.

Then he announces that it will also be available as an upgrade for ANYONE who purchased a Tesla (40, 60 or 85) for $7500.

They will keep your personal pack, recharge it and use it as a grid buffer/tie-in while you are on your road trip.

Me likey. And the way early adopters have been spending money on options, performance etc. etc. I would think a lot of people would go for this upgrade. What if it gave additional performance benefits in addition to increased range? But now we're daydreaming again

 

[callmesam]

Me likey. And the way early adopters have been spending money on options, performance etc. etc. I would think a lot of people would go for this upgrade. What if it gave additional performance benefits in addition to increased range? But now we're daydreaming again

I'm trying to think of plausible scenarios that might cover "faster than filling a gas tank"

I'm not sure this is the most likely, but if you can imagine it, and can't think of any obstacles, then it has to go on the list of possible outcomes.

Maybe a little less likely scenario goes like this.
______

Elon brings a Tesla Model S on stage. He shows that the battery is down to five miles left. He then pushes a button on the screen and the battery begins to fill.

But the car isn't plugged in.

He then opens the frunk and pulls out a metal air cartridge that just added 150 miles of range to the car.

He then says "this is for anyone that isn't near a Supercharger or they are in a rush and can't afford to wait for a charge

They cost $75 at any Tesla service center. You can carry up to 4. One in the frunk and three more fit into the hatchback in the covered compartment where kids put their feet in the 3rd row.

Now you can drive 600 extra miles away from the nearest charging.

Most of the time you'd never need it. The rest of the time you can use a Supercharger. And in the 1% of road trips that are away from a Supercharger, you NEVER HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT RANGE AGAIN!

 

[jeff_adams]

Your points are valid and if it ends up being a dual charging situation how does that explain the "under your nose" hint/clue?

Couple of things could explain it. First, the 2nd charging port could be located somewhere up front. Not in the frunk but outside the car. Did you hear the newest superchargers at Harris Ranch added a longer cable? There has to be an explanation for that move.

Also, I would expect an additional charging port would be on the same side as the first one. It would be difficult to walk by the car if cables were connected on both sides.

Elon announced they would be doubling the amount of connections from each installed box from 2 to 4. Hmmmm....double connections you say.

Last thing, his comment usually means something that is in plain sight, but you don't recognize it, not necessarily physically up front.

 

[deonb]

Couple of things could explain it. First, the 2nd charging port could be located somewhere up front. Not in the frunk but outside the car. Did you hear the newest superchargers at Harris Ranch added a longer cable? There has to be an explanation for that move.

Also, I would expect an additional charging port would be on the same side as the first one. It would be difficult to walk by the car if cables were connected on both sides.

Elon announced they would be doubling the amount of connections from each installed box from 2 to 4. Hmmmm....double connections you say.

Last thing, his comment usually means something that is in plain sight, but you don't recognize it, not necessarily physically up front.

I would think the right-tail light would classify as being hidden in plain sight. I definitely don't want another hole on the LHS of my car. I'd gladly give up the bit of mobility around the car for the aesthetics of having the chargeport hidden.

However, there is definitely no magnetic latch on the RHS taillight of my car.

Can someone with a later VIN perhaps take a small magnet and move it next to the right taillight? (You'll notice on the left taillight there is a magnetic effect, but on my car there isn't a similar effect on the right).

 

[jeff_adams]

I would think the right-tail light would classify as being hidden in plain sight. I definitely don't want another hole on the LHS of my car. I'd gladly give up the bit of mobility around the car for the aesthetics of having the chargeport hidden.

As a puzzle exercise, say you can't put it in the RHS tail light, where else would be a good place to hide a port that size? It has to be exterior so you can lock up the car and go to the can.

 

[aaron0k]

Yeah, I understand your reasoning, but did you watch Elon's answer to that exact question at the shareholder's meeting last night? He didn't crack a little smile and say "we're thinking of ways to work out that issue". Maybe you think he straight out lied to the lady with his answer, but that's not in character with him.

Jobs never cracked under the relentless questions and rumors about creating an "Apple Phone"... afterwards, no one attached a liar label to Steve.

My take on Musk is that his priorities are Business first, Future Tech second. I think maybe those looking for a metal-air/frunk swap have those priorities reversed.

I think the real question is; will Tesla limit its swapping stations/capabilities to Tesla, or open up licensing to other manufactures who want to "join them". This is infrastructure building; whether it be railroads, gas stations or modern day charge/swap stations.

I'm hoping they announce agreements with Toyota or Mercedes or that they've acquired Better Place patents for a bargain.; otherwise I anticipate investors initial reactions to such an announcement could be negative for TSLA.

 

[gregincal]

However, there is definitely no magnetic latch on the RHS taillight of my car.

I don't understand the significance of this. Clearly there isn't a second charge port currently on the car, or people would have found it by now (the cables would be obvious when working on the interior, which several people have done). If this requires new hardware, obviously they could replace the taillight assembly. I really don't think this is it, though. This is a hacker solution, and Tesla likes elegant solutions.

 

[deonb]

I don't understand the significance of this.

This logic:

It would explain a statement of 'right under your nose' (figuratively) without having to be something 'under the nose' (literally) of the car. If it's something that still has to be installed it wouldn't be 'right under your nose' (figuratively).

By eliminating the figurative possibilities, it limits the solution to literal ones. And literal interpretation means it is limited to something that happens to the frunk-area of the car.

 

[jerry33]

I have no idea which it's going to be, but I would either prefer the metal-air or replace existing battery with larger solution. The battery swap doesn't hold much attraction for me because it will be a very long time before there is any swapping over the routes I take. Superchargers will come far faster and they're at least two years out (grey doesn't mean existing).

 

[Doug_G]

Your points are valid and if it ends up being a dual charging situation how does that explain the "under your nose" hint/clue?

If I arbitrarily put "under your nose" together with "10 minute recharge" and "demonstration" I come up with:

Every Model S has a hidden extra-large charge connector under the nose of the car. The car drives into a special UltraCharger stall, which automatically plugs into the massive connector and recharges the car in 10 minutes.

Now I don't really believe this for a moment, but I'm still putting dibs on the idea...

 

[TD1]

As much as I hope it will be a Metal/Air Cartridge one other reasonable solution would be to have a replaceable/temporary battery in the frunk.
a 40kw replaceable battery in the frunk would give the car around 400 miles range with the option to swap the battery in minutes.
The swapping procedure could be simpler that way and therefore the swapping stations could be cheaper (the Betterplace solution was to complicated and therefore expensive)
That would also explain the longer cables and the doubling of the cables if the frunk-battery would charge faster with a second cable.

 

[callmesam]

How about a MOBILE SWAP SERVICE?
AAA-like service that allows a Sprinter van to carry 10 battery packs and swap on the fly.
If you run out of charge, or need a swap for a long trip, you contact Tesla? Swap operates out of Service centers (70 to be open by end of 2013). Drivers can cover, within 1 hour of service centers, 95% of U.S. population.
Pros: flexible, no more difficult than delivering pizza
Cons: Capital intensive, significant investment in labor, requires swap breakthrough

 

[Johan]

How about a MOBILE SWAP SERVICE?
AAA-like service that allows a Sprinter van to carry 10 battery packs and swap on the fly.
If you run out of charge, or need a swap for a long trip, you contact Tesla? Swap operates out of Service centers (70 to be open by end of 2013). Drivers can cover, within 1 hour of service centers, 95% of U.S. population.
Pros: flexible, no more difficult than delivering pizza
Cons: Capital intensive, significant investment in labor, requires swap breakthrough

You forgot the biggest Con of them all: Sends the completely wrong message! ("Range anxiety is such as issue that we need service trucks driving around the country all the time to help out Teslas stuck by the side of the road with empty batteries"). IMO this won't happen in a million years (i.e. sponsored by Tesla).

 

[callmesam]

You forgot the biggest Con of them all: Sends the completely wrong message! ("Range anxiety is such as issue that we need service trucks driving around the country all the time to help out Teslas stuck by the side of the road with empty batteries"). IMO this won't happen in a million years (i.e. sponsored by Tesla).

@Johan,

If the only reason were to follow people around while they run out of juice, I'd agree. But elon loves "optionality". If you don't want the service, don't order.

Could I see it as an option i.e. a $1500 option OR $300/year OR part of service plan or per use if you "need" it?

The "range swap" could work the same way.

Super-capacitor or ultra-capacitor, not sure.

Oh, and BTW, we already have those vehicles that we send out. They are called TOW TRUCKS. And AAA battery trucks and locksmith trucks . . .

 

[Yggdrasill]

So Elon shows off a traditional swap.

Oohs and aahs. [But a little anticlimatic]

He then announces that the pack swapped was actually a 120kw battery that will be available at your nearest service station before you leave on a long road trip and will take you 400 miles at steady 55mph. It will cost $5/day that you need to use it.

That way you only have to stop at every 3rd (or 4th) Supercharger.

Then he announces that it will also be available as an upgrade for ANYONE who purchased a Tesla (40, 60 or 85) for $7500.

They will keep your personal pack, recharge it and use it as a grid buffer/tie-in while you are on your road trip.

This is more what I'm hoping for. But I would expect that the batteries would only be available for rental in the short term, as the battery would probably last fewer years than the car. Which is bad if you want to keep it, but irrelevant if it's a battery swap program, and each participant only pays for the number of cycles used.

How might such a battery look?

If we assume Tesla has found a supplier able to supply durable and affordable lithium-air battery cells with 600 Wh/kg energy density, and replaced 90% of the regular 18650-cells with li-air, the resulting battery pack would have a capacity of 188.5 kWh and a range in excess of 500 miles.

Tesla would also be able to promise very substantial improvements in the next few years, as the technology is further improved.

 

[JohnLuck]

I would love it to be metal-air add batteries but I am 95% sure it will be swap, for the simple reason that I heard Elon say in a talk long ago that you can swap batteries in the model S quicker than you can fill a gass tank. I don't think there is a plan to roll out swap stations, since Elon said it was a demonstration, not an announcement. I can think of scenarios where swap is smart, like for taxis that can benifit from cheap source fuel (Don't know about the states, but in denmark taxis are all mercedes anyway).

As to ultra fast charging, that just doesn't make sense to me. Would Elon plan the 4th announcement to be made obsolete by the 5th?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I would love it to be metal-air add batteries but I am 95% sure it will be swap, for the simple reason that I heard Elon say in a talk long ago that you can swap batteries in the model S quicker than you can fill a gass tank. I don't think there is a plan to roll out swap stations, since Elon said it was a demonstration, not an announcement. I can think of scenarios where swap is smart, like for taxis that can benifit from cheap source fuel (Don't know about the states, but in denmark taxis are all mercedes anyway).

As to ultra fast charging, that just doesn't make sense to me. Would Elon plan the 4th announcement to be made obsolete by the 5th?

Obsolete? Ultra fast charging can perfectly be combined with the supercharger network, it would actually strengthen the concept of supercharging.

I'm convinced it will not be swapping, as Elon in a recent interview made clear that this is not the road they want to take right now ("I don't think pack swap is a particularly brilliant idea"). Ultra fast charging by having charged superbatteries ready at the stations makes much more sense.

 

[Rla]

Radical thought: every battery pack made until now is the same.
So if the next announcement is a live demo of battery swapping:

Pro:

• Battery swap/storage is simplified
• Software upgrade ability for 60kWh owners
• Hardware upgrade to better pack possible in future.
• Whatever battery pack you receive, it performs as spec'ed for your car.
• More benefit of economics of scale.

Con:

• 85 kWh owners feel cheated for paying $10.000 extra for some extra range.
  = $2.000 for SuperCharging Option & $8.000 for the extra range?
  Given the recent calculations of the cost for the battery pack, it would even be financially possible, as the cost of the battery can be fully covered using the base price of the 60kWh version.
• The idea that you buy something and when you swap it, you get a similar item, and you now own that one, is imho rather unique. I can not think of a single similar experience (commercially).
• Future battery packs with more range differ and negate the benefit of having 1 type of pack for swap/storage.
  You then get into some very difficult logistics of needing to have all types of battery pack available at every swapping location.