I'm Out....

[ATC@LWSK]

View attachment 81841

ps. also pretty cool numberplate

First thing to my mind: In-Flight Emergency Response (IFER) Manual - How to deal with In-Flight emergencies

 

[smac]

Now the Lotus probably isn't in any risk until Tesla comes with a next gen Roadster, maybe around 2020.

I very much doubt they will be close if they do.

If Tesla were to build a Gen 2 roadster, it would expect it to be much more like a Jag F-Type, than a Lotus. The Lotus platform for the Roadster, was in many ways necessitated by Tesla's infancy at the time and the requirement to outsource a 2k build order, rather than them wanting to build something super lightweight with the last word in steering feel.

You only have to look at how few cars Lotus actually manage to sell, it's very much a niche product. Jag's on the other hand are selling in huge numbers, and I'm sure Elon would prefer to sell into a larger market.

More of a worry would be if Lotus actually went bust. They have so far only managed to register under 50 cars the same as mine in the UK since launch in 2012 (they have sold slightly more Coupe's, but overall the number will be less than 200.) So that Ferrari is actually pretty common

I suspect Lotus might be in for a bit of a purple patch over the next few years. They have just announced the US option of the Evora400, which means they have finally got round to sorting smart air bags, and all the other safety features which have effectively barred them from the US market. There is definitely pent up demand for a replacement to the old 1.8 Exige, which actually sold pretty well into the US (and was the last time their car division was turning a profit)

There's also the effect of the credit crunch to be considered. Whilst middle classes tightened their belts, and weekend toys were first on the list to go, the wealthy were still buying Ferrari's in record numbers. Lotus have always sold to the former here in the UK, and there's signs of that market being much more buoyant.

So whilst the Model T, wiped out the market for old nags, people still buy racehorses

 

[Yggdrasill]

I very much doubt they will be close if they do.

If Tesla were to build a Gen 2 roadster, it would expect it to be much more like a Jag F-Type, than a Lotus. The Lotus platform for the Roadster, was in many ways necessitated by Tesla's infancy at the time and the requirement to outsource a 2k build order, rather than them wanting to build something super lightweight with the last word in steering feel.

If I were to guess how the next gen Roadster would be, I would think it would be based on the Model 3 platform. Maybe AWD, ~500 hp, 80 kWh battery (400+ mile range), around 1.5 tons (with about 800 kg of that below the wheel hubs), 0-60 mph in 2.7 seconds, 170 mph top speed, 2 seats for adults and 2 seats for children or small adults and of course supercharging. Priced at around 80k USD and up. I'll let you decide if that would impact Lotus.

The primary reason for making a new Roadster would be to show what can be done with an electric drive train, so the design criteria would be something like:

- Lots and lots of power
- Significantly more interior space than the competitors
- Really low center of gravity

These are the points where the electric drive train can obliterate the ICE competition.

 

[Shawn Snider]

Sorry to hear about the bad experience's, sounds like to me, it's mostly the people they hired over in the UK, SC Specialist's and whatnot (demanded the loaner back in the dead of night..... classy). I'm not an owner as of yet, fanboy I guess...

Most of the bad experience's I read about on these forums are related to either the people TM hires, or their line of communication to owners (may also be part of the person-to-person problem.. no idea, seems flawed in some way..)

And to the point of depreciation, go buy a LEAF? or some other EV from a well-entrenched ICE-Manufacturer, I keep seeing people slam TM about the 'quality' of the build. To that point, I wonder what fault's the Model T had in the 1900's... Hope none of those found their way up to the 21st century....

Imagine if TESLA was FORD.....

I'm not a rich man and buying a Model S is a bit of a stretch for me, but I'm buying it because I love the product top-to-bottom. Never selling it, ever, I hope to travel around the States and Canaderp, hopefully by the time I get to the East-Coast Harper won't be in power (I hate neck-sweater's on a whole 'nother level.. He just looks so.... evil...)

I wish you all the best smac, that Lotus looks SEXY! DAYUMN! :scared:

 

[Krugerrand]

ISo whilst the Model T, wiped out the market for old nags, people still buy racehorses

As I have mentioned before (in another thread), that's not what happened. 'Old nags' have always existed in great numbers, even when the automobile became the people mover of choice. The 'old nag' role simply changed from required/needed daily transportation to 'fun' transportation. And it's not like one day somebody snapped their fingers and everyone was driving cars on paved roads and filling up at corner gas stations. It took several decades to turn dirt streets (which invariably turned to deep mud when it rained, stranding car drivers) into paved motorways, and build out fueling infrastructure etc... But even then the 'old nag' was used for things that even the car couldn't and still can't do - like move cattle. Yes, even today, large herds of cattle (those raised properly on open acreage) are often moved by cowboy-riding-horse (ATV's are sometimes used, but can scare cattle).

What the car did that horse couldn't do was go greater distances, faster. You could only travel so far, so fast on a horse. People didn't ride 20 miles to work and 20 miles back home at the end of the day. So the car made traveling quicker and easier, but it didn't in any way, shape or form wipe out the 'old nag' market.

The 'old nags' most affected by the industrial age were the draft breeds, those used in farming. It was the TRACTOR and how we farmed, not the automobile, that most affected 'old nags'. Even today there are a number of draft breeds (entirely different horses than 'riding/human mode of transportation' breeds) that exist only because of concerted efforts by breeders.

We have more cars on roads today than ever before, we also have more 'old nags' today than ever before. Such that when the 2008 financial crisis hit, tens of thousands of 'old nags' (and still today) just in North America were/are left to starve. I know this may come as a shock (it has shocked several of my British friends), but North America is a whole lot bigger than Britain and things are sometimes done differently on this side of the ocean. Rules and regulations concerning 'old nags', how they are treated, how they are disposed of, and how the people involved are punished is quite loose here compared to your country. And even though the ability of people to afford 'old nags' as a luxury/fun item has significantly decreased in the last decade or so, the market for 'old nags' is alive and well. It's just simply shifted once again.

 

[smac]

If I were to guess how the next gen Roadster would be, I would think it would be based on the Model 3 platform. Maybe AWD, ~500 hp, 80 kWh battery (400+ mile range), around 1.5 tons (with about 800 kg of that below the wheel hubs), 0-60 mph in 2.7 seconds, 170 mph top speed, 2 seats for adults and 2 seats for children or small adults and of course supercharging. Priced at around 80k USD and up. I'll let you decide if that would impact Lotus.

Sounds like what you are describing is an M3 convertible rival. Coupes / Saloons converted to soft tops, are rarely as good as the original design, and are usually substantially heavier, and still not as torsionally rigid. A BMW convertible is already more than 1.7 tonnes, so plucking a 1.5 tonne figure from the air seems unlikely.

The second problem I can see is with the battery in the floor, whilst giving a low CoG, it does also put the driver in a relatively high up seating position for an out and out sports car. e.g. the Caymen/ Lotus / F-Type.

This is all academic anyway, the X is behind schedule, the 3 isn't launched (and I doubt we'll see that in RHD form much before 2019), so even if Tesla do decide to further extend their range, a coupe 3 would probably be next up a year or two later, maybe the convertible following that. Pushing well into the 2020s. By this time the Model S will be desperately in need of a replacement / major overhaul.

So I honestly doubt Tesla would revisit the Roadster, and make an out and out track/sports car for a decade yet, if ever, and if they do it will be some sort of halo hyper-car. One that costs $1 million designed purely to outgun the Mclaren P1 / Porsche 918. Maybe with that out the way they set their sites on the much more profitable 911 market.

Much more likely is a boutique firm offering a fairly basically equipped track day special (i.e. radical / atom / lotus). I guess we will see if the Detroit Electic comes to fruition, that's the closest we have to a replacement Roadster in anything like a predictable time frame.

 

[Alexander]

SMAC - What happened to you echos some of the complaints I remember reading back when the Model S first launched here in the US. Some hung in, others jumped ship. I hope you give Tesla another chance sometime in the future.

Like you, I reserved my car months before production started, but I waited a year and a half before I actually finalized and took delivery. So I benefited emensly from the feedback early adopters, like yourself, gave to Tesla. I haven't had a single issue that hasn't taken more then a day to solve and the service has been outstanding. I just think Tesla is going through the same growing pains in the UK that they had here in the US. In a year or so I'm sure it will be a more well oiled machine. Lotus has the benefit of being well established in the UK, where as Tesla is just getting started. So I hope you don't write them completely off.

As for the creaking comments. The car is so quiet compared to an ICE, I think it would be impossible to eliminate all creaking. Especially over time. Every car I've ever owned has creaked more over time as things wear out and come loose. Heck I've been in Bentley's that creak. I just think it's more noticeable because we don't have a roaring engine to mask it.

 

[Brit4864]

Ex-Brit here, 19yrs in the USA and a 2nd time Tesla buyer. Yes I had problems with my first MS, drive unit replaced due to the infamous "milling noise", other annoying things like repeated "car needs service" messages. All were eventually solved by Tesla's excellent service. I sold my S85 earlier this year and bought an inventory P85D..the best car on the road bar none. Not without its problems. I've just had a pano roof leak fixed for example BUT they installed new the new Next Gen rear seats which I thought were no longer available so they are trying hard. I hope you can give it another go.

 

[brianman]

next gen Roadster ... 2 seats for adults and 2 seats for children or small adults

I wouldn't call this a Roadster. A top-end Gen3 coupe maybe, but not a roadster.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I wouldn't call this a Roadster. A top-end Gen3 coupe maybe, but not a roadster.

True enough. But I consider the possibility that Tesla will make another two-seat car as extremely slim in the next decade at least. Even though the number of seats would be increased, a Model 3-based sportscar would be the spiritual successor to the Roadster. In my view, at least.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Sounds like what you are describing is an M3 convertible rival. Coupes / Saloons converted to soft tops, are rarely as good as the original design, and are usually substantially heavier, and still not as torsionally rigid. A BMW convertible is already more than 1.7 tonnes, so plucking a 1.5 tonne figure from the air seems unlikely.

The Model S battery pack weighs around 600 kg today, and provides most of the structural rigidity of the Model S. With the new battery cell format and energy density improvements towards 2020, a 80 kWh battery pack shouldn't weigh much more than 500 kg, while also providing a convertible with all the required structural rigidity. Add 400 kg of motors, electronics, suspension, and you have a good skateboard design. And almost the entire skateboard can be placed below the wheel hubs. The actual body can be made out of carbon fiber and aluminium, and wouldn't weigh much.

Basically, with an electric drive train, you have the advantage of using the drive train itself for strucural rigidity. And you are much more free to change the dimensions and weight distribution of the drive line. On a fossil car, you're stuck with a 200-400 kg block of metal that you then need to work around.

The second problem I can see is with the battery in the floor, whilst giving a low CoG, it does also put the driver in a relatively high up seating position for an out and out sports car. e.g. the Caymen/ Lotus / F-Type.

You would sit higher up, yes. This isn't necessarily a bad thing. It would make ingress/egress easier, and you would get better visibility. On the downside, you wouldn't get as much sense of speed.

This is all academic anyway, the X is behind schedule, the 3 isn't launched (and I doubt we'll see that in RHD form much before 2019), so even if Tesla do decide to further extend their range, a coupe 3 would probably be next up a year or two later, maybe the convertible following that. Pushing well into the 2020s. By this time the Model S will be desperately in need of a replacement / major overhaul.

Tesla is still ramping up their engineering department. Once the Model 3 base model is launched, it wouldn't at all surprise me if they are capable of running two major development projects in parallel. Possible timeline:

2015: Model X
2016/2017: Model 3
2018: Model 3 crossover
2019: Model S pickup, Model S/X overhaul (new battery cell format ++)
2020: Model 3 sports car
2021: Model 4 base model

So I honestly doubt Tesla would revisit the Roadster, and make an out and out track/sports car for a decade yet, if ever, and if they do it will be some sort of halo hyper-car. One that costs $1 million designed purely to outgun the Mclaren P1 / Porsche 918. Maybe with that out the way they set their sites on the much more profitable 911 market.

I think a supercar isn't in the cards. You make a supercar for publicity, of which Tesla has plenty. The focus for Tesla is making as many cars as possible and putting them into customer hands.

Much more likely is a boutique firm offering a fairly basically equipped track day special (i.e. radical / atom / lotus). I guess we will see if the Detroit Electic comes to fruition, that's the closest we have to a replacement Roadster in anything like a predictable time frame.

The SP:01 is really boring, though. It barely improves on the Roadster.

 

[smac]

@Yggdrasill I really think we will have to agree to disagree on this. (apart from the SP:01)

But I guess you aren't in the market for a proper sports car given some of your suggestions. (High seating positions, extra seats, etc. etc.)

I would love for an EV that comes close to stuff like the current generation Exige / Caymen GT4 / Porsche Cup, but honestly it's not going to happen for a very long time yet, and I don't think Tesla will be the ones to do it. The market is just too small for them to be interested. They will probably just stick to road cars that make good drag strip cars

 

[Yggdrasill]

@Yggdrasill I really think we will have to agree to disagree on this. (apart from the SP:01)

But I guess you aren't in the market for a proper sports car given some of your suggestions. (High seating positions, extra seats, etc. etc.)

Oh, I'm certainly not in the market for a sports car. My views on the matter are mostly from a Tesla investors point of view. I want Tesla to make an excellent sports car, but it also needs to appeal to as broad a market as possible. One of the criticisms of the Roadster was that it was difficult (almost undignified) to get in/out of the car. A higher seating position would mitigate that, and if sitting higher also means better handling and performance, that's great. Four seats and some room for luggage also means it can be used as a car, not merely as a toy, which means it will be more attractive for people who might go from three cars to two cars.

I would love for an EV that comes close to stuff like the current generation Exige / Caymen GT4 / Porsche Cup, but honestly it's not going to happen for a very long time yet, and I don't think Tesla will be the ones to do it. The market is just too small for them to be interested. They will probably just stick to road cars that make good drag strip cars

Tesla's goal is for electric cars to conquer the world. You don't do that by leaving a niche for fossil cars to thrive. I think Tesla will make cars to rival the best fossil cars, but they will also make sure they can sell them in a meaningful volume. Which is great for everyone.

 

[smac]

I'm driving to the Arctic Circle Raceway raceway in July. I'll happily stop by and take you for a ride out.

It's noisy, smelly and undignified to get in/out off, but maybe you'll take the hard nose investor hat off, and look at it from a pure folly point of view. Even if not it's good to check out the competition, rather than just write it off purely on dogmatism

 

[supratachophobia]

Every fact in life can be challenged, but that doesn't make the challenge credible.

I have solar panels which generate power for my Model S without producing any emissions. Your statement would only be true if manufacturing of the Model S involves a much higher release of CO2 than the manufacture of other vehicles, and by a sufficiently high enough amount to offset zero emissions from driving and solar power generation across many tens of thousands of miles and years of ownership. I don't think anyone can make a credible argument in that direction. It's like trying to make that argument from 10 years ago that the Prius pollutes more than a Hummer. No, it doesn't.

The prius argument regarding the hummer was, i think, due to the supply chains of components that had to be shipped via cargo ship. And if you break that down, the carbon footprint of the prius was more. But I could be wrong still. I usually agree with ampedrealtor on everything too.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I'm driving to the Arctic Circle Raceway raceway in July. I'll happily stop by and take you for a ride out.

It's noisy, smelly and undignified to get in/out off, but maybe you'll take the hard nose investor hat off, and look at it from a pure folly point of view. Even if not it's good to check out the competition, rather than just write it off purely on dogmatism

I don't need a test ride, but thank you. I'm sure it will be a blast.

I'm certainly not saying that fossil cars aren't fun, I just think electric cars have a very real potential for being even more fun.

 

[Nigel16494]

I had a similar experience driving BMWs, which I did for about 20 years. I never kept one more the 3 years and 364 days because the warranty work aches and pains were something I didn't want out of warranty. I am disappointed the UK tesla couldn't sort this out, and BTW the UK roads are way better than the California roads I drive on (as are most European roads). I think we are all early adopters on a fast moving technology. I enjoy driving the Tesla far more than I did BMW, but my tunein radio doesn't work these days, my iphone bluetooth is buggy and refuses to play music. Various creaks and groans. Having said that I enjoy the car and wouldn't swap it for anything, even if my 8 month old car is also looking obsolete these days. I truly hope the UK Tesla gets its act sorted out.