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(Continuing to keep this thread that I started firmly off-topic!)

Hey Doug, your politicians seem to be afflicted with some of the nonsense that passes for conservatism on this side of the border as well! :smile:

BBC News - Canadian government is 'muzzling its scientists'

Yeah, I know. :mad: The new version of the Conservative party here (a merger of our old center-right Progressive Conservatives and much-further-right Reform Party) seems to have picked up some rather bad habits. I wonder where...

(For the record, my politics would best be described as moderate-libertarian)
 
Curious when the last time the budget was balanced when the conservatives were in power?
Eisenhower.

In the past hundred years, a balanced federal budget was a rare thing. Here's when they occurred, working backwards. I attribute the deficit during an inauguration year to the outgoing president (who, after all, proposed and signed the budget for that year):

1999-2001: Clinton (D)
1969: Johnson (D)
1957, '58, '60: Eisenhower (R)
1947-49, '51-52: Truman (D)
1930: Hoover (R)
1924-29: Coolidge (R)
1922-23: Harding (R)
1920-21: Wilson (D)

The Harding/Coolidge administrations were unique during the 20th-21st century in having a budget surplus every year.
 
Group hug!
grouphug.gif
 
Lloyd, your chart shows that the main "unsustainable" problem is interest -- easy enough to eliminate that by raising taxes enough to not have to pay interest. (It's worth noting that Obama is proposing only miniscule increases in taxes on the rich -- a return to Eisenhower-era rates would raise far more money.) Or (and I know this is controversial) interest costs could be eliminated by printing money. Paying interest is strictly an optional choice on the part of a government which issues its own currency.

As for other "unsustainable expenditures", there's the military, which currently spends more than every other nation's militaries combined, which is clearly excessive.

Then there's medical expenditures, which are the only other problem on the spending end. If we had the per-capita expenditures of an average industrialized nation, we could pay for all the medical expenses of EVERYONE in the US with the amount currently spent by the government on Medicare & Medicaid and Tricare and the VA -- which, together, currently handle all the most expensive patients.

Of course, cutting those costs would require allowing the government to negotiate drug prices, which Bushco managed to prohibit. :cursing: Costs could be cut further with a Medicare-for-all system, because then Medicare would have the power to force down inflated medical equipment prices, emergency room costs from uninsured people would be eliminated (and the hidden subsidies to them in the form of inflated hospital costs would disappear), etc.

I've studied this. It's interesting, if maddening.
 
Lloyd, your chart shows that the main "unsustainable" problem is interest -- easy enough to eliminate that by raising taxes enough to not have to pay interest. (It's worth noting that Obama is proposing only miniscule increases in taxes on the rich -- a return to Eisenhower-era rates would raise far more money.) Or (and I know this is controversial) interest costs could be eliminated by printing money. Paying interest is strictly an optional choice on the part of a government which issues its own currency.

As for other "unsustainable expenditures", there's the military, which currently spends more than every other nation's militaries combined, which is clearly excessive.

Then there's medical expenditures, which are the only other problem on the spending end. If we had the per-capita expenditures of an average industrialized nation, we could pay for all the medical expenses of EVERYONE in the US with the amount currently spent by the government on Medicare & Medicaid and Tricare and the VA -- which, together, currently handle all the most expensive patients.

Of course, cutting those costs would require allowing the government to negotiate drug prices, which Bushco managed to prohibit. :cursing: Costs could be cut further with a Medicare-for-all system, because then Medicare would have the power to force down inflated medical equipment prices, emergency room costs from uninsured people would be eliminated (and the hidden subsidies to them in the form of inflated hospital costs would disappear), etc.

I've studied this. It's interesting, if maddening.

Well, your wrong on all fronts. If we taxed 100% of all the income that everyone makes (not practical), and quit spending completely it would not cover our debt for more than three years. Our problem is not from undertaxing as you suggest, it is from OVERSPENDING!

The problem with medical expendatures is the US patients expect the best care. Other countries that provide health care regulate it dramatically. Example: I have a friend who had to bring her mother to the US from Russia for cateract surgery. She could not see at all. After waiting for 9 months for an appointment, they told her that the procedure to remove her cateracts was not necessary. Done here quickly and cost several thousand dollars. The russian government did not want to pay for the procedure.

I am a doctor, and the majority of the costs in ER's are due to government regulation, and CYA for malpractice. Many things that are easily treatable, predictably and inexpensively require very expensive equipment and exams to prove in a cout of law that their diagnosis and treatment was correct should anything be questioned later. Sadly it does not appear that this mode of practicing medicine will change anytime soon!
 
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Well, your wrong on all fronts.
Actually, I'm right on all fronts. Plus I know my grammar.

If we taxed 100% of all the income that everyone makes (not practical), and quit spending completely it would not cover our debt for more than three years.
Not actually true. Actually, just plain false. Have you been listening to right-wing sources? They lie. Try looking up the numbers yourself, from government sources.

Our problem is not from undertaxing as you suggest, it is from OVERSPENDING!
No. It's largely from UNDERTAXING, but it's partly just from STUPID -- not overspending but STUPID misallocation of money. I suggest you try studying some economic history, because you clearly haven't. Again, look up what was done under Eisenhower for a start.

The problem with medical expendatures is the US patients expect the best care.
No, it's really not. I've actually studied this. You may be a doctor, but you clearly haven't studied it.

The problem is caused substantially by selection bias in our medical payment systems, which are statistical effects which you won't see anecdotally because *you're seeing a biased sample of patients*. Single-payer systems eliminate the selection biases and the money spent on them. I mention one of them below (uninsured patient behavior); another is the money spent by insurance companies to make sure "somebody else" pays for any patients with actual illnesses. Another is the fact that the most expensive populations -- the elderly, veterans, the poor, and the disabled -- are ALL PAID FOR BY THE GOVERNMENT ALREADY. The cost of adding everyone else, the "cheap population", is negligible, but it gives the government pricing power.

One thing you can see: consider your paperwork costs. Don't run your own office? *Find out* how much your paperwork costs are. Compare to other countries. First-world countries. In the US, doctors have huge paperwork departments to deal with multiple insurance companies, and the insurance companies have comparably huge paperwork departments. In "single-payer" countries, this paperwork simply *does not exist*, because there is only one insurance provider which deals with doctors (any other insurer deals directly with patients). Lots of secretaries out of a job, but that's a good thing. This is an example of STUPID spending.

The drug costs are another matter. Drug costs are regulated in every other country in the world. Here, they're both unregulated and supported by government-sponsored private monopolies (patents); and the government is prohibited from negotiating costs. And Americans are prohibited from importing drugs from abroad. As a result, highest drug costs in the world! Some argue that we need to do this to subsidize new drugs, but it would be cheaper just to use direct government grants. This is an example of STUPID spending.


Other countries that provide health care regulate it dramatically. Example: I have a friend who had to bring her mother to the US from Russia for cateract surgery.
You're comparing to Russia? Seriously, try comparing to Scandanavia, the UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Canada, or Australia. Russia fell massively behind during the Brezhnev era, had a total economic collapse which Gorbachev did not manage to avert, and was then looted during the "privatization" period; it is now an underdeveloped country. Yes, the US (often) provides better medical care than Russia. We also provide better medical care than Burma and the Congo. Why compare apples and oranges?

Yes, other countries, even the first-world ones, do have regulations making the most expensive procedures difficult to get. Here, we simply make all procedures difficult to get unless you're rich, make even the most absurd procedures easy to get for the very rich, while spending a massive extra amount of money on paperwork. Predictably, this gives worse results than other prioritization systems.

She could not see at all. After waiting for 9 months for an appointment, they told her that the procedure to remove her cateracts was not necessary. Done here quickly and cost several thousand dollars.
If you're working poor, you won't be able to get cataract surgery here *either* -- over half the population of this country simply does not have several thousand dollars to spend!

On the other hand, you will be able to in the UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Scandanavia, etc....

I am a doctor, and the majority of the costs in ER's are due to government regulation,
Not especially -- unless you mean the regulation which requires ERs to take everyone, of course, which is massively increasing ER usage. They've become the only way to get care for uninsured people, which is a nice way of backloading massive costs on hospitals, as uninsured people wait until they're sick enough to be admitted to the ER. There are studies showing how much this adds to the nation's health costs; you can look them up. This is an example of STUPID spending.

and CYA for malpractice. Many things that are easily treatable, predictably and inexpensively require very expensive equipment and exams to prove in a cout of law that their diagnosis and treatment was correct should anything be questioned later.
Yes. And you have another example of STUPID spending. Countries with single-payer systems do not have the same "courtroom defensive" CYA malpractice attitudes from doctors, because there is a different legal regime, where "This is the standard Medicare/NHS-approved procedure" is good enough for any court!

Incidentally, there is evidence that behavior commonly recommended to doctors by lawyers (never admit wrongdoing, do unnecessary tests) is actually *counterproductive* and gets doctors *sued more* and makes them *lose cases more often* than being forthright and straightforward and humble with their patients, but try to get the lawyers to admit that.

Sadly it does not appear that this mode of practicing medicine will change anytime soon!
But it could change. The arguing of medical cases in the law courts isn't done much in single-payer systems. Malpractice cases are then reserved for the genuinely abusive and deranged doctors (of which I've seen a couple). "The best" doesn't necessarily mean unnecessary tests (who likes unnecessary tests?) and in countries where the payment system and the legal regime is different, the mode of practicing medicine is different.

Oh, there's other stuff going on too, where the US just "does it stupid". In most first-world countries medical education is very cheap (heavily government-subsidized), so doctors don't feel the need to go into expensive specialties or collect huge salaries -- no school debt to pay off. It turns out this saves the government money in the long run, because rather than paying "medical costs" which include the doctors' interest on their school loans, that interest never gets charged.

I really have studied this... For the same amount of money the government currently spends on medical care, we could be getting universal coverage for all citizens, of a better quality, like Canada, the UK, France, Denmark, Switzerland, Japan, take your pick. This would have the nice side effect of removing the cost of health insurance from businesses and individuals, which would cause an economic boom in other areas, which would incidentally raise government revenue. The fact is that we're not getting our money's worth for our spending and those who have studied it mostly know why.

We don't get our money's worth for military spending either, obviously (or we wouldn't be losing wars repeatedly). More STUPID.

But on top of this, the government is also undertaxing. Well, actually, the Mitt Romneys of the country are undertaxed (15% top rate!) while working people are taxed at really quite high levels; an interesting "soak the poor" system which is really not healthy for the country at all. And all too many of the undertaxed superrich are using their money to attempt to get the government to funnel more money towards them and away from everyone else... and often to encourage STUPID spending, because they often have a hand in the companies which profit from it.
 
I'm about 40, born and raised in Scandinavia, and have spent about a decade of my adult life in the US.

I can back neroden up on everything he said about health care.

(EDIT: Well, I can't claim to have actually studied it, but it corresponds with my impression.)
 
There was an interesting chart that I saw during the health care debate. Basically, the US health care system provides much worse results at a much higher cost than any other country in the world. It's about as inefficient a system as one could possibly have -- the US is paying many multiples per patient for the same or worse outcomes on life expectancy than any other country. Here is the chart:

National Geographic Health Care Chart

I'd also note, to Neroden's point, it is estimated that paperwork is somewhere between 25-30% of the overall cost of medical care in the US. This is not only the doctor's offices and hospitals that have to deal with multiple different paperwork from each insurance company, but disputes between insurers and providers, insurers and insureds, and providers and patients, all of which cost significant time and money (not to mention heartburn for patients trying to get their bills paid).

Lloyd, I'm not sure I understand your point -- most of the "overspending" in the US currently, and even moreso in the future, is on health care (Medicare and Medicaid), and you think the US's problem is solely one of overspending. The easiest way to cut spending, other than cutting defense, is to cut spending on healthcare, which can only be done through some systematic, fundamental changes to how we provide health care in this country, at least some of which would restrict the amounts paid to doctors, which I can only assume you'd object to.

I'd also note that there's a huge difference between the current tax rates in the US and taxing "100%" of income. The US has, by far, the lowest tax rates of any first world country. See here:

How do US taxes compare internationally?

and here:

List of countries by tax revenue as percentage of GDP - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I don't think anyone likes paying taxes, but we essentially have a country that provides first world benefits at third world prices (tax rates), which is why our deficit is soaring. If we increased our % of GDP that was taxed to the level of other first world countries (not coincidentally, a similar list to those with universal health care), we'd largely solve our long term deficit problem, especially in combination with some reform to our health care system.
 
Posted by neroden:
"interest costs could be eliminated by printing money. Paying interest is strictly an optional choice on the part of a government which issues its own currency."
"I've studied this. It's interesting, if maddening. "

Based on the first quote I have to agree with the second. I do wonder who you studied under.

True that rampant inflation can decimate the value of existing debt. Of course if a government defaulted on its interest payments as you suggest, the value of its currency would drop like a rock. I guess if that government's debt was tied to its own currency then yes the value of its debt would also drop. A bit short sited IMO and what's the word for it?.... oh yeah lunacy!
 
Posted by neroden:
"interest costs could be eliminated by printing money. Paying interest is strictly an optional choice on the part of a government which issues its own currency."
"I've studied this. It's interesting, if maddening. "

Based on the first quote I have to agree with the second. I do wonder who you studied under.

True that rampant inflation can decimate the value of existing debt. Of course if a government defaulted on its interest payments as you suggest, the value of its currency would drop like a rock. I guess if that government's debt was tied to its own currency then yes the value of its debt would also drop. A bit short sited IMO and what's the word for it?.... oh yeah lunacy!

I was told that we would need in the order of 5000% inflation just to be able to take care of our existing obligations, not to mention what would need to be added if inflation existed to that level.

Interesting times.
 
I'm buying a production performance model with so many options, I might as well just get the Signature edition since the price difference is minimal; however, I opted to stick with the production model simply because I'm hoping it will blend in with the $50k models. I don't want all the Signature indicators (badging, color, etc) that scream "Look at my $100k car!".

(Sorry. I realize this thread has moved on to some other topic, but I just wanted to make a quick comment on this original topic.)
 
Neroden, thanks for the post. The only thing that I would add to the topic of how to cut down on the legal costs of medicine is that doctors need to quit buying malpractice insurance by themselves. I only pay about $3000/yr in malpractice insurance to practice law because the Oregon State Bar buys it collectively. Right now doctors get shafted because any single doc has no leverage against the insurance company. If they were to get together, agree to all buy from the same place, and then negotiate the price, they could bring down costs considerably.