JRP3
Hyperactive Member
As I've said Tesla does not have the equipment to build the G3 right now, and Elon has said he wants to pay for G3 production with income from operations. So we aren't going to see anything anytime soon.
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jeff_adams
Member
Tesla was behind on the Roadster schedule (but they delivered)
They were behind on the Model S schedule (but they delivered)
They had to move back the Model X schedule (but they will deliver a great vehicle)
Why would people expect to see them way ahead of schedule on GenIII?
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
ipdamages
Roadster Sport 835
I agree with pp that with the secondary Tesla is now in a different place in terms of its financial resources. Tesla had few options before but to bring the Gen 3 to market off of operating cash flow from the Model S and Model X. But now they have resources like they have never had before. Basically a blank check. I personally think that the market is overly giddy over Tesla, but that makes it a great time for a secondary, and I think they are doing it timely and wisely. Bravo.
So I think it is absolutely a fair question to ask whether this could mean an acceleration of the development timeline of the Gen 3. And I think it is a potentially valuable thing for shareholders to be able to accelerate development and maintain market leadership. Because after the Model S's success big auto shareholders are putting it to their execs, and you know that the world is not going to sit there for four years and let Tesla be the only company to have a 3-series-sized EV with a 50-60 kWh skateboard battery unless there is strong patent protection, and the fact that BMW is using the skateboard in the i3 suggests to me that Tesla does not in fact have the industry excluded from being able to build a skateboard. And I completely agree that Tesla has a great market leader position, but waiting four years is very likely going to let the market catch up, and it is very possible that others will be able to create cost efficiencies similar to what Tesla is hoping to achieve in the Gen 3 - simply because they are currently bigger.
As a result, I think there is strong justification for accelerating the Gen 3 timeline, and in my opinion even releasing the car without a $37,400 price before rebates - maybe it would be better if they look it as $29,900 is the new Tesla TCOE adjusted price in states like New Jersey, for sole proprietors, who value their time at $500/hr, and are avoiding 6 gas stops per week, blah blah blah). Regardless, while I agree past performance is a good predictor of the future, there is IMO a significant variable that has changed the equation. But we will see!
ipdamages
Roadster Sport 835
I was talking with a Tesla friend today and he was saying that in the design studio it is all hands on deck on the Model X. So it isn't as if there is Gen 3 news that is being hidden from us.
I don't believe the Gen III can be accelerated with money. I believe the "gating factor" is waiting on battery costs / battery performance to come into line with the target for the vehicle (which seems to be essentially a 60 kw/hr battery and is a $35,000 base price without any tax credits). The hedging on the date is probably to leave time to get everything right for production, sure. I mean even in a post Model X world, Tesla would be moving from 30,000 or so vehicles per year up to 250,000 or so practically overnight. But the bigger issue is that the battery today is on the order of $10,000 and they probably have a number that can be achieved in 2016 (with some degree of certainty) but can't be achieved any sooner.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I'd rather see Tesla delay a bit and get the product right, because G3 will be much higher volume than Models S and X. A misstep could potentially be vastly more costly in terms of money and consumer perception. I can't remember which publication said this, but Model S was hailed as the greatest Beta test of our time.
When G3 launches, it cannot be a Beta, no mater how great the design.
At the same time, ipdamages raises a good point that the competition won't stand still. However, I think that institutional inertia at other automakers gives Tesla some buffer. Companies and dealer networks heavily invested in ICE will resist electrification. Giants like Honda and GM are putting massive resources into Hydrogen fuel cells and walking down the wrong path IMO.
I think they will be producing at least 45k units before generation 3 starts production
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Although Toyota fitted a Tesla power train and battery pack to the RAV4 to make an EV model, I would be surprised if the Corolla received the same.
The Corolla is a budget car. Few customers are going to want to pay a huge premium for an econobox. RAV4 is not usually an expensive car, but it does have higher trim levels, making the pricier EV a bit of an easier sell.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I have the same thinking. They would want their volume BEV to be in the same line-up as their green halo car. The FCV-R (basically a hydrogen Prius) offers a hint of that. But this is assuming they want a serious push for EVs (not just compliance).
EVNow
Well-Known Member
If we assume EVs will eventually become mainstream - Toyota will have little choice. I'm sure they are watching Nissan Leaf closely. If as expected, Leaf continues to be supply constrained forcing Nissan to increase production - and say it starts selling over 3k a month - Toyota will have to react. I won't be surprised if they are already working on a Prius BEV. Just a question of when they will green light the volume production (it might take 3 years from that time to launch).
DuncanWatson
Member
Elon spoke about the GenIII in Munich on 10/21/2013. Here is a youtube clip:
The part about the Gen III starts at 1:50.
Inside he talks about
Inside he talks about
- the range: "At least 300km closer to 320km with options to go higher than that"
- The fit and finish - basically less than the model s, talk about 1 screen instead of 2, etc.
- The timing on a prototype, "probably about a year, 12-18 months best guess 1st Quarter of 2015"
- The current stage - sketches, finalizing clay model of Model X, just at sketch of GenIII, Clay Model in 2014.
- Size: "smaller than the model s, no as many features, but about half the price"
- Comparision vehicle: BMW 3 series
Last edited by a moderator:
wallet.dat
Member
I can't wait for this thing to come out!! Well, that and the next Nissan GTR!
Read an article today that said we're likely to see it debut at NAIAS in 2015 with production in '16 or '17
Original source: Tesla-Chefdesigner von Holzhausen: "i3 ist wie ein IKEA-Möbel" - autobild.de
Some translations: Tesla Chief Designer: Model E Expected to Make Worldwide Debut at 2015 Detroit Auto Show
unit face? Does he mean he doesn't want all of Tesla's vehicles to have the same grille/look?
Original source: Tesla-Chefdesigner von Holzhausen: "i3 ist wie ein IKEA-Möbel" - autobild.de
Some translations: Tesla Chief Designer: Model E Expected to Make Worldwide Debut at 2015 Detroit Auto Show
unit face? Does he mean he doesn't want all of Tesla's vehicles to have the same grille/look?
I think he means gen3 won't be a mini close of the modelS.
there will be similarities but it will be its own shape.
I would expect the grill to be the same or very similar though.
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