Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[wcorey]

Level 3 means that the car can drive without human supervision under some limited conditions. As long as Tesla requires the driver to be attentive and supervise the car at all times, it is not Level 3. This isn't only about the the situations that the car can "manage", but also about liability (which is a measure of the confidence that the carmaker has in the reliability of the system).

Deb, I need to take issue here. The following is the SAE J3016 Automation levels

3 Conditional Automation The driving mode-specific performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task with the expectation that the human driver will respond appropriately to a request to intervene System System Human driver Some driving modes

4 High Automation even if a human driver does not respond appropriately to a request to intervene System Many driving modes
5 Full Automation under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver All driving modes

This from Autonomous car - Wikipedia
Note: the word task is singular. I am not trying to fantasize a case for level 3, merely according to SAE, that's where they are. Note also, I don't believe Tesla has labeled what 'level' their system is at so all we're doing is being surrogates for either Tesla or some other entity.

 

[EVNow]

Deb, I need to take issue here. The following is the SAE J3016 Automation levels

3 Conditional Automation The driving mode-specific performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task with the expectation that the human driver will respond appropriately to a request to intervene System System Human driver Some driving modes

Tesla expects the driver to be vigilant and take over even if the car doesn't request intervention.

 

[electronblue]

Basically, FSD will come in 2 stages:

Stage 1: NOA on highway + City NOA = "Feature Complete"

Stage 2: L4/5 no geofence

That’s exactly what I fear.

Because you left out a very, very important stage:

Stage 1: NOA on highway + City NOA

Stage 2: Every other feature needed for autonomous driving = ”Feature Complete”

Stage 3: L4/5 no geofence (reliability level sufficient for car responsible driving)

I fear exactly that Elon Musk’s ”Feature Complete” is simply Stage 1, not Stage 2...

 

[diplomat33]

That’s exactly what I fear.

Because you left out a very, very important stage:

Stage 1: NOA on highway + City NOA

Stage 2: Every other feature needed for autonomous driving = ”Feature Complete”

Stage 3: L4/5 no geofence (reliability level sufficient for car responsible driving)

I fear exactly that Elon Musk’s ”Feature Complete” is simply Stage 1, not Stage 2...

Would you be happier with this instead?

Stage 1: NOA on highway + City NOA = "Feature Complete ADAS"

Stage 2: Every other feature needed for autonomous driving = ”Feature Complete FSD”

Stage 3: L4/5 no geofence (reliability level sufficient for car responsible driving) = "Deployed FSD"

 

[electronblue]

Would you be happier with this instead?

Stage 1: NOA on highway + City NOA = "Feature Complete ADAS"

Stage 2: Every other feature needed for autonomous driving = ”Feature Complete FSD”

Stage 3: L4/5 no geofence (reliability level sufficient for car responsible driving) = "Deployed FSD"

Look I know you mean well but I have a hard time with you inventing explanations and definitions for Tesla. Feature complete ADAS has not been used or defined by Tesla anywhere, so I don’t know why bring such a thing up?

I will take a step back from analyzing what a 2019 buyer can expect from ”FSD” because that may be different, so this is for us who bought EAP and FSD in 2016-2018.

If ”feature complete ADAS” means anything, it must be compared to what Tesla has announced and sold to us as ”ADAS”. That would be Enhanced Autopilot, AP1 parity and possibly ”FSD differentiating features” — these from the 2016-2017 announcements and Design Studio. Looked at this way, ”feature complete ADAS” would mean: EAP (NoA without prompt + Enhanced Summon might quality), AP1 parity (speed sign recognition is missing) with some FSD features thrown in (stop signs and traffic lights could fulfill this). So in some sense even less than your Stage 1 would fulfill ”feature complete ADAS” but this has little to do with what Tesla sold as FSD in 2016-2018...

For FSD to be feature complete that would require coast to coast Summon capability with everything that entails, at least on prototype level, and everything being ”Level 5” level except in reliability given it would still be a prototype.

I also do think we should drop ”Level 4” from the list of stages since Tesla has never to my knowledge referred to that level for FSD, it has always been — both in 2016 and 2019 — Level 5.

 

[diplomat33]

Look I know you mean well but I have a hard time with you inventing explanations and definitions for Tesla. Feature complete ADAS has not been used or defined by Tesla anywhere, so I don’t know why bring such a thing up?

I will take a step back from analyzing what a 2019 buyer can expect from ”FSD” because that may be different, so this is for us who bought EAP and FSD in 2016-2018.

If ”feature complete ADAS” means anything, it must be compared to what Tesla has announced and sold to us as ”ADAS”. That would be Enhanced Autopilot, AP1 parity and possibly ”FSD differentiating features” — these from the 2016-2017 announcements and Design Studio. Looked at this way, ”feature complete ADAS” would mean: EAP (NoA without prompt + Enhanced Summon might quality), AP1 parity (speed sign recognition is missing) with some FSD features thrown in (stop signs and traffic lights could fulfill this). So in some sense even less than your Stage 1 would fulfill ”feature complete ADAS” but this has little to do with what Tesla sold as FSD in 2016-2018...

For FSD to be feature complete that would require coast to coast Summon capability with everything that entails, at least on prototype level, and everything being ”Level 5” level except in reliability given it would still be a prototype.

I also do think we should drop ”Level 4” from the list of stages since Tesla has never to my knowledge referred to that level for FSD, it has always been — both in 2016 and 2019 — Level 5.

I merely asked you if you would be ok with that terminology for each stage. I am not suggesting that it is Tesla's official definition.

But I think we are getting lost in the weeds.

We know Tesla definition of "feature complete". NOA on Highway + NOA on City streets = "Feature Complete". There is no need to create a stage 2 as "Feature Complete". Your stage 2 belongs under stage 3.

It is very simple:

Stage 1: NOA on Highway + NOA on City streets = "Feature Complete"

Stage 2: Adding additional capabilities to make FSD true L5.

 

[electronblue]

I merely asked you if you would be ok with that terminology for each stage. I am not suggesting that it is Tesla's official definition.

But I think we are getting lost in the weeds.

We know Tesla definition of "feature complete". NOA on Highway + NOA on City streets = "Feature Complete". There is no need to create a stage 2 as "Feature Complete". Your stage 2 belongs under stage 3.

It is very simple:

Stage 1: NOA on Highway + NOA on City streets = "Feature Complete"

Stage 2: Adding additional capabilities to make FSD true L5.

I disagree know that is Tesla’s definition of ”feature complete”.

Elon Musk said on Autonomy Investory Day ”feature complete” means Level 5 no geofence (I accept the implication was on a prototype level). That can not be NoA highway + NoA city streets if he was truthful.

 

[emmz0r]

NoA in city streets is NOT full self driving, it's assisted driving. And thus it's far from feature complete.

 

[electronblue]

Deb, I need to take issue here. The following is the SAE J3016 Automation levels

3 Conditional Automation The driving mode-specific performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task with the expectation that the human driver will respond appropriately to a request to intervene System System Human driver Some driving modes

4 High Automation even if a human driver does not respond appropriately to a request to intervene System Many driving modes
5 Full Automation under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver All driving modes

This from Autonomous car - Wikipedia
Note: the word task is singular. I am not trying to fantasize a case for level 3, merely according to SAE, that's where they are. Note also, I don't believe Tesla has labeled what 'level' their system is at so all we're doing is being surrogates for either Tesla or some other entity.

You are missing a crucial part of SAE’s definition which is obvious if you read their fuller material.

Level 3 requires driver intervention only throuh a request to intervene (or a specifically obvious event such as the car physically breaking down) when driving in autonomous mode.

Level 3 does not require driver supervision when in autonomous mode. That is the big deal about Level 3 because you can read a book or emails or watch TV.

Tesla so far requires supervision making them Level 2.

 

[electronblue]

NoA in city streets is NOT full self driving, it's assisted driving.

Even if we ignore that on the basis it would be a prototype system our expectation is that NoA on city streets will not meet all the feature requirements a Level 5 system would have unless we are sorely mistaken about what NoA on city streets will mean.

I mean for example NoA on city streets is missing park seek from its description. It is also doubtful if it will have advanced AI to handle complex traffic signs and rules (so far the talk is of stop signs and traffic lights only), let alone human traffic guidance and so forth, which would be required by a feature complete Level 5 system.

 

[diplomat33]

NoA in city streets is NOT full self driving, it's assisted driving.

Well, Tesla actually calls it "automatic city driving" which does sound like full self-driving. The term "NOA on city streets" is an alternate name that some on this forum have invented because we know from the FSD demo that Tesla will use NOA to implement "automatic city driving".

 

[emmz0r]

Well, Tesla actually calls it "automatic city driving" which does sound like full self-driving. The term "NOA on city streets" is an alternate name that some on this forum have invented because we know from the FSD demo that Tesla will use NOA to implement "automatic city driving".

NoA is not automatic. It requires you to take over eventually. Also it has nags and no sign reading.

 

[diplomat33]

NoA is not automatic. It requires you to take over eventually. Also it has nags and no sign reading.

NOA on City Streets will need to read signs.

 

[electronblue]

Well, Tesla actually calls it "automatic city driving" which does sound like full self-driving. The term "NOA on city streets" is an alternate name that some on this forum have invented because we know from the FSD demo that Tesla will use NOA to implement "automatic city driving".

I believe ”Navigate on Autopilot on city streets” actually emerged from the first Tesla demos of the system that predated the official label, hence it has stuck. It wasn’t a TMC invention at least, whether it was born out of miscommunication by Tesla staff doing the demos or those reporting them forward is an open question.

But to be exact, Tesla actually calls it ”Automatic driving on city streets” now so I’m okay with calling it that too.

 

[electronblue]

NOA on City Streets will need to read signs.

Will it?

I would not be surprised if it doesn’t read most of them.

 

[diplomat33]

I believe ”Navigate on Autopilot on city streets” actually emerged from the first Tesla demos of the system that predated the official label, hence it has stuck. It wasn’t a TMC invention at least, whether it was born out of miscommunication by Tesla staff doing the demos or those reporting them forward is an open question.

But to be exact, Tesla actually calls it ”Automatic driving on city streets” now so I’m okay with calling it that too.

I got into the bad habit of calling it "NOA on City Street" since I saw others on this forum calling it that, and I wanted to stick with the same terminology for ease of communication.

But yeah, everybody probably should call it "Automatic City Driving" since that is what Tesla is calling it on the website.

In any case, "Automatic City Driving" should include the following sub-features at a minimum:
- handle intersections
- make left and right turns
- make unprotected left turns
- respond to traffic lights and stop signs
- respond to traffic signs
- respect traffic laws
- respect one way streets
- auto lane change
- follow nav directions

So there are a lot of sub-features under "Automatic City Driving".

These are the main features listed under FSD on the website:

• Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
• Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
• Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
• Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.

• Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
• Automatic driving on city streets.

So based on the website, that is "feature complete" FSD.

But we need to understand that there are a lot of sub-features implied in the main features. NOA includes a lot of sub-features. Automatic City Driving includes a lot of sub-features as well.

 

[electronblue]

@diplomat33 Doesn’t Tesla call it ”Automatic driving on city streets”, where does the ”Automatic City Driving” come from?

 

[diplomat33]

@diplomat33 Doesn’t Tesla call it ”Automatic driving on city streets”, where does the ”Automatic City Driving” come from?

I consider them to be the same thing. I use "Automatic City Driving" as a bit of a shorthand for "Automatic driving on city streets".

 

[electronblue]

In any case, "Automatic City Driving" should include the following sub-features at a minimum:
- handle intersections
- make left and right turns
- make unprotected left turns
- respond to traffic lights and stop signs
- respond to traffic signs
- respect traffic laws
- respect one way streets
- auto lane change
- follow nav directions

So there are a lot of sub-features under "Automatic City Driving".

I’ll give you an alternative theory on what Automatic driving on city streets — the version to be available this year, that is — could mean:

- Map-based route and speeds (like NoA)
- With possibly complementary automated fleet speed data (like NoA)
- Lane selection based on rudimentary heuristics and vision, but mostly through mapping (like NoA)
- Stop sign and traffic light reading

In this ”rudimentary” scenario even things like one way streets could come from mapping (backed up by the driver-as-crutch) instead of sign reading, as would lane selection and general ”respect for traffic laws”. It might not read any signs beyond perhaps the stop signs for safety. The rest would be up to the maps and the driver.

 

[electronblue]

I consider them to be the same thing. I use "Automatic City Driving" as a bit of a shorthand for "Automatic driving on city streets".

Problem is Automatic City Driving could imply ”park seek” more readily than Automatic driving on city streets. As far as we know the Automatic driving on city streets slated for this year does not include park seek.