Are the Model X mules close to the final version?

[JRP3]

I'm throwing in with those who don't think the "real" X will be all that different from what we've seen, mostly because of the constraints of aerodynamics, fitting 3rd row seating, and SUV styling. I just don't think there are too many options for doing things much differently. However, I hope I'm wrong, not because I don't like what we've seen, but because I'd like Tesla to surprise me :biggrin:

 

[vigge50]

Mod note: deleted as per users request

 

[sigurdi]

Where is the Model X Test Mule? Is there one?

They will produse a new boddy, only for camulage?
The prototype was build by hand, the 30 betas prodused in upgraded production line last fall, not just for testing cars but also production.
300 RC is prodused around now, to test faster speed in production line and see if adjustments have to be done to make production smooth and speedy.
Nice to dream, and sorry to say, it was no hidden air battery, more storage, more range on the Model S, just a software upgrade that estimates range better. ;-)
I am happy as long as I get my kids, dog, and luggage in the car, it run as smooth as the P85D, it is the fastes SUV/Minivan on this planet, and can park itself in my garage. It do not need to look spesial, quite OK that it looks like a large Model S.

 

[bluenation]

And I'm quite fine with that. I rather liked the prototype… er… "beluga whale". The only thing I don't particularly care for is the black plastic nosecone and I harbor some hope still that they're creating an illusion of the nosecone with their camouflage. Or at least covering the fact that they've started using color-coordinated pieces. But even if it's still the same Model S nosecone I can live with it.

I think some folks have come to expect that there must be a radical exterior redesign to justify the 3-year delay. I'd rather the time was spent in other areas. I put in a reservation based on what I saw, not with the idea that the final product would necessarily be strikingly different in appearance.

well, they believed elon's tweets.

protip: try not to take his tweets without a bowlful of fine, Dead Sea-quality salt.

Subaru analogy:

Too long to be a Forester so aim to be an Outback but with even higher axles and bigger wheels, at least optionally. More ground clearance and of course air susp on top of that. TM is doing major redesign here, else it would just be an S done up as a mini-van and we would have seen it already.
--

the outback absolutely revolutionized subaru's balance sheets, not to mention popularizing the CUV in this continent.
if the X achieves even 10% of that, Tesla can pat itself.

 

[AlMc]

Hey, I'm only a few days away from winning my bet with Al regarding the delivery date of your Model X... I'm more than happy to take money from more people here.
Oh, wait. Dang. You and I are both on the same side of this bet :-(

We have to come up with a 'double or nothing' bet. Configuration date opens for Sigs or when Bonnie takes deliver on her X. :wink:

 

[Yuri_G]

Ah, but that isn't the disagreement at all! The question is whether the car we have seen driving around IS the beta.

Following this line of thought Tesla has been driving around prototype Xs in camouflage just to surprise us when they unveil the production X. They have stated at least twice that there will be no release event in which to unveil the production version. So Tesla is driving these cars around for no better reason than to throw enthusiasts off, since they wouldn't be getting specific data for the final version. Seems like a huge waste of time.

The more likely scenario is that these are betas being heavily road tested because the production X will have to roll off the assembly line in 3-6 months. Also, Jerome is getting a release candidate X soon, which means there will most likely be footage of uncovered Xs in the next few weeks.

 

[aronth5]

Following this line of thought Tesla has been driving around prototype Xs in camouflage just to surprise us when they unveil the production X. They have stated at least twice that there will be no release event in which to unveil the production version. So Tesla is driving these cars around for no better reason than to throw enthusiasts off, since they wouldn't be getting specific data for the final version. Seems like a huge waste of time.

The more likely scenario is that these are betas being heavily road tested because the production X will have to roll off the assembly line in 3-6 months. Also, Jerome is getting a release candidate X soon, which means there will most likely be footage of uncovered Xs in the next few weeks.

What makes you think Jerome would get an uncovered X?
If Tesla is intent on waiting to show the X until the actual unveiling with founders getting the first cars why in the world would they have an uncovered Model X beforehand?

 

[robby]

I'm always open to a small side-bet for fun (and bragging rights).

I'll make a side bet that the spy shots we've seen recently have been release candidate vehicles + camo/body alterations). Wager my 85D for your X? ... or just bragging rights is fine, too.

 

[bonnie]

I'll make a side bet that the spy shots we've seen recently have been release candidate vehicles + camo/body alterations). Wager my 85D for your X? ... or just bragging rights is fine, too.

Uhhh, since I think what we've been seeing is altered vehicles ... what are we betting on? Now if you want to bet that we're seeing true spy shots of the vehicle, then we have something to talk about.

 

[AnOutsider]

It was him I mean, Henrik

For reference:

Instagram

Model S behind, Model X in front.

Yes people, but this is not the "recent one". So much I can say.

(Also, first post..)

Mod Note: deleted as per users request

 

[Yuri_G]

What makes you think Jerome would get an uncovered X?
If Tesla is intent on waiting to show the X until the actual unveiling with founders getting the first cars why in the world would they have an uncovered Model X beforehand?

I'd guess that he's going to use it as a daily driver and having camo on would not simulate normal day to day use. 30 or so release candidate Xs driving around means we will likely get spy shots of at least one without camo. Tesla isn't unveiling anything. That doesn't mean we won't get to see the exterior before the founders' cars go out.

 

[robby]

Uhhh, since I think what we've been seeing is altered vehicles ... what are we betting on? Now if you want to bet that we're seeing true spy shots of the vehicle, then we have something to talk about.

"Alteration" is very broad though. There's a big difference between a camoed nose that obviously implies a change, and thinking for example that the falcon doors we're seeing clear as day are a decoy design.

I think the spy shots we've seen are the final version of the car with camo applied over them where feasible. I don't think the vehicle itself is a modification of the release candidate.

 

[bonnie]

"Alteration" is very broad though. There's a big difference between a camoed nose that obviously implies a change, and thinking for example that the falcon doors we're seeing clear as day are a decoy design.

I think the spy shots we've seen are the final version of the car with camo applied over them where feasible. I don't think the vehicle itself is a modification of the release candidate.

Interesting. Hmm, okay. What options are on your car? Is it a P85D or?

 

[PokerBroker]

i think anything is possible... bumper covers, nose design, quarter panels, etc are so easily changed. it is very possible that the outer paneling of these vehicles is old and that new paneling is an easy swap away for the production version

 

[robby]

Interesting. Hmm, okay. What options are on your car? Is it a P85D or?

Haha, sadly a non-P on my budget. Sound, pano, tech and subzero. I pick it up this Friday and I don't want to worry about losing it though, so let's stick to bragging rights.

- - - Updated - - -

i think anything is possible... bumper covers, nose design, quarter panels, etc are so easily changed. it is very possible that the outer paneling of these vehicles is old and that new paneling is an easy swap away for the production version

Certainly possible. My thinking is simply that a quality-obsessed company like Tesla will want to test its final product rigorously on real roads prior to shipping them by the thousand. If Tesla can somehow do that testing on enclosed private property with 100% confidence, I would love to be wrong and floored by pleasant surprises at the reveal. For me, it's just hard to imagine a substitute for real world testing -- especially when it comes to factors like weather and interacting with other cars. Modifying even small things like body panels can have significant impacts on range, road noise, rain displacement, etc. In a nutshell I think Tesla will prioritize testing this stuff in the real world over the marketing benefits of a complete surprise.

 

[ohmman]

Haha, sadly a non-P on my budget. Sound, pano, tech and subzero. I pick it up this Friday and I don't want to worry about losing it though, so let's stick to bragging rights.

Awww, this thread was about to get much more interesting.

 

[vandacca]

Certainly possible. My thinking is simply that a quality-obsessed company like Tesla will want to test its final product rigorously on real roads prior to shipping them by the thousand. If Tesla can somehow do that testing on enclosed private property with 100% confidence, I would love to be wrong and floored by pleasant surprises at the reveal. For me, it's just hard to imagine a substitute for real world testing -- especially when it comes to factors like weather and interacting with other cars. Modifying even small things like body panels can have significant impacts on range, road noise, rain displacement, etc. In a nutshell I think Tesla will prioritize testing this stuff in the real world over the marketing benefits of a complete surprise.

Some of the most important testing is longevity testing that can't be done on the roads in the span of 3 months. They need to come up with ingenious ways to condense years of testing in the span of a few weeks or months. They may use techniques such as high-temperature testing, rigs that run 24x7, extreme testing like a vibration platform or an intense suspension-test course.

The reasons why these rigs and platforms are preferable is:
1.) the test is repeatable
2.) if they make a change, they can re-test to verify the improvement
3.) the test can be automated, saving time/money/resources
4.) the testing is more harsh and thorough, much more than in regular driving
5.) the testing can be used to test product limits in a safe and controlled environment
6.) you can test for conditions not possible on a Californian road (e.g. Rain, snow, cold, etc.)

Road testing is only really useful in testing the human-to-vehicle interface. For example, all the road-testing in the world would not have identified the Model-S drive-unit grinding problem from a few years back.

 

[Andex23]

I think the squares at the top of each wheel well may be cameras for a 360 degree surround top down view of the car for parking, etc... BMW and others already have this feature although I think it is in the side mirror.

I think the "innovative ideas" are masked, the body is the general shape and proportions. I agree with the windshield being complete all the way back to the b Pillar and the only cross bracing at the B & C pillars. that would be innovative although not enough to really change the body shape.

Maybe the front plastic parts can change easily but the body panels... NOPE

I was at the Beta event for the MS back in 2011. I remember them expressing how freaking long it took for the dies to get to the plant from Japan and that they could only do minor modifications to those dies in house. I don't know if their capabilities have changed since then but the lead time for body panel dies would indicate either the body is designed and in some form of wait/production with the dies or that the design is not done and therefore the dies have yet to be ordered. The second example would not allow for an august delivery, so my guess is the design was finalized 6-9 months ago.

 

[Henrik]

What has been written lately about Swedish forums and Model X stuff etc.. is for those who might have overestimated this information.. - These are only wild speculations.

Yes - I visited the Tesla factory, but so has a lot of other people. A lot has changed since then and that was almost a half-year ago. The information provided here and on the Swedish forum is only speculations from what we have been able to get from the internet and the forums during these months.

I am 19 and a nobody - It makes no sense that I would know more than other people. I know as mush as all of you do - not more, not less.

I did however make a post here to be a bit mysterious - I did hope that people wouldn't take it too serious - Which then concludes that everything I say should be considered "a low value information".

But it seems like some people went hyperactive - But since some really thought this information and stuff about prices and sizes were real, I have to set things right by telling you that they are only wild speculations.

We just have to sit down and wait - The time will come - And when it does we will know pretty much everything..

I am writing you this because a lot of people started to ask questions and some got angry that I couldn't simply answer them, because I don't know - Anything.

//Henrik

 

[anticitizen13.7]

What has been written lately about Swedish forums and Model X stuff etc.. is for those who might have overestimated this information.. - These are only wild speculations.

it seems like some people went hyperactive - But since some really thought this information and stuff about prices and sizes were real, I have to set things right by telling you that they are only wild speculations.

Thanks for clarifying on this, because it seems like this speculation has lead people to believe that the production Model X will be radically different from the photos and videos of the presumed Betas driving around.

I've followed the auto industry long enough to know that stuff just doesn't change this close to production. I don't think it's likely that the exterior will be a big surprise, but I expect surprises on the interior.