Any regrets ordering 70D vs 85D?

[kuttakamina]

Hmm cool thanks. I read somewhere that it's the charge discharge cycles that kill the battery the most. But even then, 300k miles worth of charge discharge is what is expected before the batteries die. Have you contacted Tesla? What did they have to say?

 

[mknox]

Hmm cool thanks. I read somewhere that it's the charge discharge cycles that kill the battery the most. But even then, 300k miles worth of charge discharge is what is expected before the batteries die. Have you contacted Tesla? What did they have to say?

I did ask Tesla and they said my battery is operating normally. As I say, others have reported similar numbers to mine, while others still have maintained higher range numbers.

I had thought that the batteries had a finite number of charge cycles, which I believe they do, but I've also heard that shallower charge/discharge cycles are better than deep ones. My longish commute maybe does result in my doing deeper discharging than others with shorter daily drives.

This is another advantage of a larger battery: For a given daily driving distance, the larger battery will discharge less, as a percentage of its capacity, than a smaller one.

 

[kuttakamina]

Hmm yup! But a 100 mile commute is a LOT. For most I still feel 70D is more than enough.
One more thing to consider, the tax rebates on 70D and 85D are identical. So the percentage difference viz. 85D is a much pricier car.
But in 8 years when the tax rebates expire, the 70D's resale will be better (because it will be a percentage from the new price).

I still feel, Tesla should raise the price of 70D by 2.5K, and lower 85D's price by 2.5K, and the S85 should be maybe 1K more than 70D.

 

[mknox]

For most I still feel 70D is more than enough

I would agree with that. I ordered my car well before the Model S even was in production, and my options were 40, 60 and 85. Today, I would definitely go for a "D" but have no interest in a "P". Just as with my current car, I find the performance already way more than I need, and just can't justify the additional expense. Where I would be torn is between the 70D and the 85D, but the pricing sure does make the 70 very compelling.

 

[Max*]

But in 8 years when the tax rebates expire

lol, what? I bet the tax rebate will expire WAY before then. More like the phaseout starts in <2 years.

 

[kuttakamina]

lol, what? I bet the tax rebate will expire WAY before then. More like the phaseout starts in <2 years.

Yup! So they'll be gone in 8 years for sure, phase out included.
Probably much before that.

I saw this happen with prius'es. When the 2500 hybrid rebate went away, the used cars got 2500 pricier. I was like WTF?!
Same will happen this time around with Volt/Leaf/Tesla/etc.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

But in 8 years when the tax rebates expire, the 70D's resale will be better (because it will be a percentage from the new price).

Are you referring to the federal tax credit (which is not a tax rebate)? If so, can you tell me where you got the "8 years" from as I haven't heard that number before. The federal tax credit begins to be phased out after the manufacturer produces 200,000 vehicles.

 

[kuttakamina]

Are you referring to the federal tax credit (which is not a tax rebate)? If so, can you tell me where you got the "8 years" from as I haven't heard that number before. The federal tax credit begins to be phased out after the manufacturer produces 200,000 vehicles.

I need to do a better job at picking my words I guess.
Yes that alongwith all the state incentives is what I meant.

Either way, its gonna cost more to buy an EV in 8 years (or much lesser).

I think once Tesla starts producing MS and MX, you'd see the 200K number hit within a year or two.
The state tax incentives will go away sooner.

There is always the wildcard of what the next govt. may do too.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I saw this happen with prius'es. When the 2500 hybrid rebate went away, the used cars got 2500 pricier. I was like WTF?!
Same will happen this time around with Volt/Leaf/Tesla/etc.

Could have the same effect, but when the Prius rebates were used up, Toyota was in the middle of Gen 2 and they didn't have any fundamental improvements coming. Given what's expected from 2016 onwards, we should expect the value of Gen 1 used BEVs to tank.

- - - Updated - - -

Are you referring to the federal tax credit (which is not a tax rebate)? If so, can you tell me where you got the "8 years" from as I haven't heard that number before. The federal tax credit begins to be phased out after the manufacturer produces 200,000 vehicles.

200,000 vehicles _sold in the USA_.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

200,000 vehicles _sold in the USA_.

Yeah, I knew that but I guess I could've been more precise for those who don't know about it.

 

[Ride Long]

Okay good to know about the L2 chargers. From the DC area, Hershey's is a risky trip on a 70D, back and forth without juice.
It's 120 miles from me, each way, with no superchargers in the middle. I think I need to get comfortable with the idea of non supercharger trips before I attempt Hershey.

For some reason I remembered this post yesterday as I drove to Hershey, PA and back for the day in my 70D. 112 miles each way, and Hershey's Chocolate World has two chargers that are free. I started the day at 100% in range mode and was at 54% when I arrived at my destination, so that's cutting it a bit close for a round trip without charging. 3.5 hours later we left at 76% so I turned off range mode and cranked the AC home (hot by late afternoon). My 'plan B' was to divert to Hagerstown to the SC there, which didn't bother me because I didn't have any place I needed to be any time soon. I've learned that as long as I have a plan 'A' and a plan 'B" I get out the door to enjoy the day and not get preoccupied with range.

 

[GregTexas]

I only regret it when I take my 70D in for service and they give me a P85 loaner to drive but I suppose that's enough of a periodic thrill for me.

 

[dhanson865]

Are you referring to the federal tax credit (which is not a tax rebate)? If so, can you tell me where you got the "8 years" from as I haven't heard that number before. The federal tax credit begins to be phased out after the manufacturer produces 200,000 vehicles.

I need to do a better job at picking my words I guess.
Yes that along with all the state incentives is what I meant.

Either way, its gonna cost more to buy an EV in 8 years (or much lesser).

I think once Tesla starts producing MS and MX, you'd see the 200K number hit within a year or two.
The state tax incentives will go away sooner.

There is always the wildcard of what the next govt. may do too.

200,000 vehicles _sold in the USA_.

the post below shows my math from the other thread. Only way I see it being around 8 years later is if you bought your Model S in 2011 or 2012.

Model X Configuration has begun! - Page 80

US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)

2015 Aug 54,000 (14,500 for partial 2015 + prior years)

The current rate has them selling more than 20,000 in the US for 2015. Ramping up Model X and production in general might trigger the 200,000 mark in 2018? I figure it'll be a Model 3 that is the 200,000th sold in the US (or at least Model 3 sales will be under the 200,000 mark and contribute to the total).

The phase-out period stretches over one year, beginning in the second calendar quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer hits the 200,000 vehicle US sales mark. From there, all qualifying vehicles sold by the manufacturer are eligible for 50% of their specified credit for the first two quarters and 25% of the credit for the next two quarters.

For example if a manufacturer sells its 200,000th vehicle in the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, the credit amounts for all of that manufacturer's eligible vehicles would phase out as shown in the table below.

Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
Q1 2018 Full amount
Q2 2018 Full amount
Q3 2018 50% of full amount
Q4 2018 50% of full amount
Q1 2019 25% of full amount
Q2 2019 25% of full amount
Q3 2019 No credit

It's entirely possible that it will trigger sooner and run out sooner but the important concept is that it doesn't go away immediately and when it starts going away it diminishes slowly not all at once.

If Tesla is pumping out 10,000 plus a month in 2018 they could easily sell 50,000 or more with the full tax credit. They could then be selling double that amount in the next 6 months with half tax credit. And then double rate again with 1/4 tax credit. All in all hundreds of thousands of Model 3s could be sold with federal tax credit.

Keep in mind Tesla can game this slightly by focusing on overseas deliveries of Model S and Model X the month they are going to roll over 200,000 US deliveries. If that rolls them into the next quarter it extends the tax credit by 3 months no matter how many they sell after that.

 

[RockinWithKids]

Just a simple question? Need some help rationalizing spending an extra $10000 on top of which I can't change it without loosing my deposit

Now that we've experienced some actual winter (ie below 32F) in areas of the US - I wonder if anyone's opinion has changed on this?