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And there's still no way they will ship in 2017. Model X was over 2 years late and the entire chassis was lifted straight from Model S. Model 3 is a whole new car with new materials. Even 2018 is a long shot for production at any kind of scale.
the Model 3 has been in the works for over 10 years. the design was done a long time ago. now it is little tweaks here & there to make it look cooler, save weight, increase efficiency, add functionality, and streamline
the first cars to come of the line will use gigafactory format cells made in japan. the first gigafactory format line is already running in japan. after they finish tweaking the production flow the line will simply be replicated in Japan and then replicated at the gigafactory in nevada and then replicated at the gigafactories in germany and china. Initially the gigafactory will be doing battery assembly only. The batteries will be shipped on a train to Fremont (where they are already making Model 3's)
Other than hand built cars (they need one for the reveal in March) please explain how they are "already making Model 3s" in Fremont? Doesn't seem likely they'd already fire up an assembly line for a car they have yet to reveal.The batteries will be shipped on a train to Fremont (where they are already making Model 3's)
Uh, yeah, ok. That statement is just straight-up wrong and so calls into question everything else in your post. You don't even know Tesla's public history so how could you know details that would be closely guarded?the Model 3 has been in the works for over 10 years. the design was done a long time ago. now it is little tweaks here & there to make it look cooler, save weight, increase efficiency, add functionality, and streamline
Yep, it's all speculation at this point. But I'm just basing my statements on history and that history is simply not on the side of those saying Model 3 will be on time. The Roadster was way late, the Model S was way late, and the Model X was way late. While Elon may say they went overboard on Model X that doesn't mean he's learned from it. From the doorsill redesign on the Roadster to the motorized doors and seats on the Model X, Elon wants the car his way and that's the way it will be, schedule be damned. Personally I'd rather wait another year and have a much nicer car - I'm content to drive my Roadster until then.The Model X chassis is extremely different structurally and functionally than Model S. Elon admits going overboard on Model X. I think Elon and all of them understand that the Model 3 has to come absolutely as fast as possible. He indicated that they had an internal debate about whether to make the car another adventurous radical car, or whether to be more conservative with Model 3 (at least with the first version), and just get it out there. He said they chose to go conservative.
So, while I do not think he is breaking news by restating end of 2017, I think it is what he really wants, and will try earnestly to hit it. I think we will all have totally different sense of it all when the reveal comes in a matter of weeks.
... the Model 3 ... the first cars to come of the line will use gigafactory format cells made in japan. ... Initially the gigafactory will be doing battery assembly only. The batteries will be shipped on a train to Fremont (where they are already making Model 3's)
Elon is always optimistic. The gigafactory will be up and running this year. It really comes down to building the Model 3 line and bringing all the vendors together. It will not be easy but there is more incentive now with the Bolt to be more on time.
Uh, yeah, ok. That statement is just straight-up wrong and so calls into question everything else in your post. You don't even know Tesla's public history so how could you know details that would be closely guarded?
Yep, it's all speculation at this point. But I'm just basing my statements on history and that history is simply not on the side of those saying Model 3 will be on time. The Roadster was way late, the Model S was way late, and the Model X was way late. While Elon may say they went overboard on Model X that doesn't mean he's learned from it. From the doorsill redesign on the Roadster to the motorized doors and seats on the Model X, Elon wants the car his way and that's the way it will be, schedule be damned. Personally I'd rather wait another year and have a much nicer car - I'm content to drive my Roadster until then.
I disagree. Tesla said cell production at the Gigafactory will start this year and it will be for Model S and X.
Quote (Tesla Motors): "Gigafactory ... first cells expected to be produced in 2016 for use in Model S and Model X."
Source: SEC report page 26
That seems to be counter to the interview where EM says they will be in production at the end of 2017 thats basically almost 2 years away.They are already building Model 3's which use cells built in Japan. The gigafactory is already being used to build grid packs and will soon be used to build Model 3 packs.
Plans changed with the sucess of Tesla Energy. They will no longer be making 18650s at the gigafactory for GEN1 X/S packs. The gigafactory cell is 21700 (extra 3mm still fits in GEN1 pack)
the Model 3 has been in the works for over 10 years. the design was done a long time ago. now it is little tweaks here & there to make it look cooler, save weight, increase efficiency, add functionality, and streamline
the first cars to come of the line will use gigafactory format cells made in japan. the first gigafactory format line is already running in japan. after they finish tweaking the production flow the line will simply be replicated in Japan and then replicated at the gigafactory in nevada and then replicated at the gigafactories in germany and china. Initially the gigafactory will be doing battery assembly only. The batteries will be shipped on a train to Fremont (where they are already making Model 3's)
Model 3 packs are way simpler to build. They already have Model 3 packs on the back of flat bed trucks in the desert and in the arctic running worst case discharge and charge cycles using portable next gen superchargers. the goal is 20 year life. the most difficult part of a sealed pack design is accounting for humidity.
^^ unless they start selling at a loss and wait till the factory is up before turning the [minor] profit on the car.
but more than likely they will be building the ultra high spec versions first, making crazy amounts of money off them like the P90D cars. in which case they could totally start before the gigafactory is up.