What would you think about a small Generation 4 Tesla EV for $20,000 in about 2020?

[richkae]

The non battery drivetrain of EVs are only at a cost disadvantage to ICEs because of lack of scale. I think when the motor, inverter, and charger are being made by the 100,000s per year instead of 10,000s the cost will drop a lot. At similar scale I can not imagine the EV drivetrain being more expensive than an ICE one, I think it would be much less.

Then we have the battery, Tesla is currently at $400 per kWh. If the battery is $200 per kWh and the energy density is double what it is now, I could imagine a $20000 car with 150 mile range that is of a similar trim level with a $15000 ICE car. The EV would have better acceleration, cargo space and maintenance regimen.
I think you could easily get 150 miles out of a 200 pound 30kWh battery in a small aerodynamic car. With a 200 pound battery, and the rest of the EV drivetrain being much lighter and more compact than a comparable ICE - I think the EV could even weigh less than the ICE.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

No thanks to a cheap, tiny Tesla.

Small does not necessarily mean tiny or cheap.

A Honda Fit is dimensionally small, but has a ton of space inside. A Mini Cooper is small, but it is also a premium vehicle with a premium price.

Tesla should make a small car at some point in the future because larger cars don't sell we'll in some overseas markets. Also, not everyone in the US wants a big car.

 

[Alpha]

Small does not necessarily mean tiny or cheap.

A Honda Fit is dimensionally small, but has a ton of space inside. A Mini Cooper is small, but it is also a premium vehicle with a premium price.

Tesla should make a small car at some point in the future because larger cars don't sell we'll in some overseas markets. Also, not everyone in the US wants a big car.

Can a really small car be made as safe as a bigger car? That was actually one of the reasons I wanted to upgrade from a little car to the Model S.

 

[vfx]

Watch the TESLIVE video with Elon. When a questioner challenged Tesla going downmarket as not good for Tesla he said they were going to do it anyway.

He also said recently, If it moves they will build it.

 

[Al Sherman]

I'd like to see the half ton pickup before Gen 4. Selfish reasons certainly but I truly believe they would sell a ton of them.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Biggest problem is micro-cars are just not very popular in the US (Tesla's biggest market for the forseeable future).

But in Europe it's the other way round. Of course Europe is not Tesla's biggest market but the Tesla sales could increase a lot in Europe with a micro-car.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Can a really small car be made as safe as a bigger car? That was actually one of the reasons I wanted to upgrade from a little car to the Model S.

Generally speaking, a large car will be safer than a small one, but it depends on many engineering factors besides mass. Crumple zones, materials, and force distribution properties of a car's body structure matter a lot.

Bringing back the example of the Honda Fit: the Fit has a polygonal front bulkhead designed to provide more even contact with a taller SUV or pickup. The frame is also designed to channel forces around the passenger compartment. This makes a big difference. The Fit handily outperformed the Toyota Yaris in IIHS collision tests with mid size sedans.

 

[mnx]

Watch the TESLIVE video with Elon. When a questioner challenged Tesla going downmarket as not good for Tesla he said they were going to do it anyway.

He also said recently, If it moves they will build it.

I think he also said at TESLIVE that "if it moves they will build it" was a joke, and that bloomberg was going to make a correction to that article.

 

[fjavifp]

Hi all,

After all that's been said before, I think the only real question is whether this will happen by 2020 or later - I honestly don't think the concept and it's market potential can be challenged by anyone other than using personal preferences... the thing will happen - it'll sell potentially less in the US where consumers are used to bigger cars thanks to decades of high-performance car history and lower fuel prices than say Europe, even if use is mostly the same i.e. commuting from home to work and back, but it'll sell like "churros" (sorry - a Spanish expression) in Europe, India, China, Japan, Brasil...

So is 2020 a realistic target? I cannot say - I'm missing info regarding TESLA's expansion plans. As far as I am able to judge it is possible, provided Model X will be in the 40-50k$ price range, GenIII in the 30-40, GenIV in the 20-30. Makes sense. But, who knows... there could also be before then the Model S based pick-up, the Model S based convertible, the break, the coupe, and the same for GenIII variations: the SUV, the coupe, the convertible, the break... and the revised Roadster is very likely to happen as well by then...

Kind regards,
Javier

 

[ElSupreme]

So is 2020 a realistic target? I cannot say - I'm missing info regarding TESLA's expansion plans. As far as I am able to judge it is possible, provided Model X will be in the 40-50k$ price range, GenIII in the 30-40, GenIV in the 20-30. Makes sense. But, who knows... there could also be before then the Model S based pick-up, the Model S based convertible, the break, the coupe, and the same for GenIII variations: the SUV, the coupe, the convertible, the break... and the revised Roadster is very likely to happen as well by then...

Kind regards,
Javier

The Model X will not be in that price range. It will be "comparable" to the Model S. Which is code for Model S +$5k.

Tesla has basically stated that they want to go down market after the Model S/skateboard platform. This car, which Elon basically said will cost $35k in 2013 dollars, is going to compete agains BMW 3/ MB C/ Audi 4 directly and probably VW Jetta/Ford Fusion/Chevy Malibu/Honda Accord/ Toyota Camry for a lot of people.

I expect that there will be tremendous pressure for Tesla to create a Roadster successor by this point. I think they will try to leverage the GenIII platform but, (if they truly want a supercar) may need to develop a dedicated platform. After this I think Tesla will look to expand their existing platforms, and probably introduce a update to the S and X.

I think after Tesla starts manufacturing for a few years, they can make improvements that make production, faster, easier, cheaper, and higher quality. And Tesla will very much want to rework the S and X, and possible expand that platform to a truck, van, or wagon.

I think after a 2.0 Model S Tesla will look to develop a new platform. And I think supercar/sports car, or truck/commercial vehicle is going to happen before sub-compact/microcar.

 

[fjavifp]

OK so I stand corrected on Model X (I thought I heard it being said...)
In any case, the suggested model would still work: Roadster at 100k, Model S at 60-80K, same for Model X, then GenIII at around 35k, then it could be GenIV at 20-30k...

I agree that after GenIII the next thing could be a new Roadster, or any variation of the S or GenIII platform but, who knows...

Regards.

 

[moollar]

I like the idea of a Model C:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/19183-quot-Model-C-quot

:smile:

 

[Benz]

Tesla's stated mission is to make compelling cars. You can do that in every segment and command higher prices than your competitors.

That's right.

But I realise now that 2020 just might not be the right year for that to happen. More time is required ro realise such an EV.

If we take a timeframe of a decade, say inbetween 2020 and 2030, then it will be much more realistic to say that there will be a Tesla EV available for about $20,000 right?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Capacity ~= minimum size ~= range ~= torque ~ 1/(dis)charge rate

It also affects price but as batteries get cheaper, and motors and inverters fall in price somewhat as well it'll have less of an impact on price.

The capability to produce a compelling cheap, citEV will depend on the gravimetric energy density and (dis)charge rates that the Tesla's technology can allow the battery to handle.* I note gravimetric, because in a smaller car primarily used in urban environment the weight is going to be very important.**

However, you really need high volume to get a low price point, so I think it more likely you'd see another manufacturer "powered by Tesla" with an evolution of a model going from pure ICEV to and increasing EV:ICEV ratio. Ground up EV is great, but next best is to design a new iteration of a model with both EV and ICEV in mind so the EV isn't heavily compromised.

* Panasonic's next gen cells are actually heavier then the ones Tesla's using now, although I expect that with the Si tech being new they'll manage to get the weight down in a few years.
** It would actually be kind of cool to watch a 4.5klb minicompact in a collision.

 

[voyager]

Intriguing topic, particularly since range and performance of an EV benefit if the car is truly lightweight and preferably low drag-shaped. There is more. A lot of car use related aspects are still seen and treated separately by the industry. I am talking about energy efficiency, traffic safety, autonomous drive and space utilization of the present infrastructure.

What better than to start with the common denominator: the car itself. Not everyone needs a five-passenger automobile that weighs 25 to 30 times more than the average driver, and that is as wide as the average driver measures in length. At least not all the time. Single occupancy of a car is most frequent during rush hour, which causes gridlock. I'd say: great arguments to work on a new personal transportation mode that is substantially more space-efficient.

Think about it: such a lightweight, low drag vehicle could be fitted with battery packs that differ in size, dependent on expected use as a commuter / urban runabout or long distance tourer.

 

[tftf]

I think this car will arrive (if at all) by around 2023-2025 because TSLA would first need to build additional capacity (both car plants and battery factories) for such Gen IV cars.

The factory would probably be located in a location with lower labor costs to be competitive (i.e. not in North America).

Why 2023-2025? I currently expect the Model 3 to be delayed until at least 2018 (or even until 2019-2020 for volume deliveries if there are additional delays betwen now and 2017).

In any case, Tesla will not have spare capacity left (both at the car and battery production facility) if everything goes according to their Model 3 volume plans (400-500k cars/year). Importing from Panasonic's existing, older Japanese battery plants is not an option for Gen IV because of cost issues.

I think Tesla will rather expand the Model 3 car (crossover etc.) before building an even cheaper Gen IV car.

By around 2020-2025, Asia-based car competition will probably dominate low-end EVs anyway so I don't know if it makes sense to enter the Model 3 and Gen IV price ranges in the first place.

 

[Larry93428]

Model S Five Star Safety Rating, highest ever, sets the bar very high. A small car - such as Smart - cannot have the important crumple zone.
It would be a sorry thing for Tesla to build something less safe than the Model S.
There is a need for small pick-ups, especially in the utilities, landscaping and other small fleet applications. I would love to see Tesla build a small, 1/2 ton size, pick-up.
~Larry

 

[voyager]

Model S Five Star Safety Rating, highest ever, sets the bar very high. A small car - such as Smart - cannot have the important crumple zone.
It would be a sorry thing for Tesla to build something less safe than the Model S.
There is a need for small pick-ups, especially in the utilities, landscaping and other small fleet applications. I would love to see Tesla build a small, 1/2 ton size, pick-up.
~Larry

I agree on the "safety 1st" consideration. Did you know that rear collisions still aren't part of NCAP safety testing? Which is weird (but understandable since the industry determines testing) - rear impacts are a frequent occurrence. To my knowledge German ADAC was the only one that thoroughly researched the effects, particularly gruesome when small hatchbacks are rear-ended.

 

[William13]

I predict a generation 4 costing $30,000. When adjusted for fuel savings $15,000. Available in fall 2022. This will coincide with the opening of the 4th gigafactory for Tesla.

 

[dhrivnak]

That's right.

But I realise now that 2020 just might not be the right year for that to happen. More time is required ro realise such an EV.

If we take a timeframe of a decade, say inbetween 2020 and 2030, then it will be much more realistic to say that there will be a Tesla EV available for about $20,000 right?

How about a Leaf available now??? I just can't imagine finding a Tesla for $20K. It is very hard to get a Model S under $80K.