TSLA Investor Discussions

[dsm363]

I agree, but how are they not going to be upset when (if) it's announced later? 8^P

What if it could be offered as an upgrade, aftermarket?

I've had my deposit down since April 2009. It was promised to be a 'fully loaded' Model S and the best of the best. If deliveries start in June and in July they announce a 500 mile pack coming out at the end of 2012 for example, I could see how that would upset some people. I wouldn't need a 500 mile pack but some might and others would simply want the top of the line and expect that to last longer than June to July.

I could see that as an upgrade down the road but don't think they'd announce something like that so soon. I don't think people would be that upset if 2 years from now they offer a bigger pack and also make it available to current owners. Most people realize they're buying a drivable computer basically and things get upgraded often. Some people will get upset at anything so they can't worry about everyone. I think the SuperCharger network is more likely. I think the next revision of the Model S will probably be after the Model X launch and will likely me mostly interior upgrades and maybe a new battery pack. This new battery pack could be offered to current owners as an upgrade but this is just my guess of course.

 

[smorgasbord]

We hear what we want to (and expect to) hear. I shouldn't be so excited about the long-range battery pack. I know he announced early in the conference call that very few people would be interested in a longer-range pack.

Yeah, I took Elon's comments to mean that they have no plans for a 500 mile battery pack for Model S.

For Model X, I think the door is open that they'll up to the next generation of LiIon chemistry and end up with larger kWh packs that deliver close to the same range as Model S.

 

[zack]

Aside from the upcoming "range" announcement, the biggest news I took away from the conference call was that Elon was willing to let slip that the Mercedes deal could be an order of magnitude bigger than anything they've done so far. If he's willing to say that now, it seems safe to assume it will eventually be much bigger that that.

 

[ckessel]

I don't know that you really need a pack much larger than the 300 since that's approaching the range of a lot of ICE cars. What's necessary is fast refueling time, that's where ICE's have such a big advantage. EVs basically have endless range right now since there's always an electrical plug almost anywhere, but the access to that plug and the recharge time is prohibitively high. Fix that recharge time and battery pack sizes don't need to grow much.

When Elon keeps touting the super charger as such a big deal, I think that's where he's going, reducing that refueling time to as small a time as possible.

 

[AnOutsider]

Aside from the upcoming "range" announcement, the biggest news I took away from the conference call was that Elon was willing to let slip that the Mercedes deal could be an order of magnitude bigger than anything they've done so far. If he's willing to say that now, it seems safe to assume it will eventually be much bigger that that.

That much was in the shareholder letter though, so I'm not sure I'd call it a slip.

 

[Norbert]

The 500 mile pack was just a 'we could if we wanted' thing, it would have to use cargo space if they actually did it. (Point being: what matters is $/kWh improvements, which are going to continue at about 8-10% roughly, on average). In July, that's about the charging infrastructure. Elon said it going to be "pretty cool", and, later, "awesome".

Altogether this was really great news, in many ways.

 

[JRP3]

So far, I'm batting 1000:

1a) Toyota shipping? Check. Note Tesla claims range is 170 miles
1b) Over 10K deposits for Model S? Check. Over 1000 Model X deposits? Check.
1c) Lost money in Q1? Check. (0.76/share to be exact, larger than expected)

2a) Deliveries in June? Check!

3) Release Candidate Vehicles announced? Check.

4) Additional financing NOT required? Check.

My first thoughts on hearing the data were "Smorgs nailed it!" :biggrin: Are you always this good?
Notice the obviously anti-EV anti-Tesla comments from the one reporter in this piece:
Tesla Shares Spike on Earnings - CNBC

 

[daniel]

I can only hope you are right because my feeling is that those who look to kill the EV market again will use this as another example of how the EV is a futile effort and the fact that Tesla is the driving force behind the Toyota Rav4 EV makes it directly responsible when the fingers are pointed at the disappointing offering that Toyota has presented. When it fails (and I really mean when and not if), this will be a huge blemish and although we all can argue it's not Tesla's fault, that isn't how it will be presented publicly. We are all small single celled organism voicing the facts and trying to plead a case we should win to a very loud and powerful air horn which is current automotive and oil industries.

IMHO, releasing a crap product that nobody can justify purchasing in a small market to begin with just to get by state regulations isn't helping the cause, it will do the opposite.

Emphasis mine.

The Rav4EV will not fail. It will be a huge success at the numbers being produced. People have been paying $60,000 for ten-year-old Rav4EVs! This new one will be ten grand cheaper than used ones have been going for. And it's a unique product: An EV with gobs of hauling space inside. They'll go like hotcakes. Oh, and with the Toyota name on them, there'll be no doubts, as there are with Volt and Leaf, about quality.

There's so many buttons, so many acronyms, so many abbreviations on this application. I wish I had someone looking over my shoulder making sure I'm not making a mistake.

If you don't know what you're doing, you're really better off not doing it. With folks talking about selling puts I looked into options trading. My on-line brokerage account is not authorized for it. Turns out you really need to know what you're doing. If you are not really confident that you understand what you're getting into, and that you understand all those acronyms and buttons, wait until morning when you can trade as you're used to. Or put a limit order in now for tomorrow's trading.

Okay, when it comes to personal finances, I'm very conservative. I'm just going to keep sitting on my $29 limit order. Maybe I'll never get those shares. Or maybe tomorrow or next week or next month it will take another dip.

 

[zack]

That much was in the shareholder letter though, so I'm not sure I'd call it a slip.

No, not in so many words. Here's the line from the letter: "We recently signed an agreement with Daimler to create an entire electric powertrain for a new Mercedes-Benz EV, thus formalizing the joint effort kicked off in Q4 last year. This program is expected to exceed in value the sum of all powertrain agreements signed in Tesla history."

Elon said to one caller that he expected the Mercedes program to be an order of magnitude larger than all agreements so far. That's a far cry (10X!) from "expected to exceed in value".

 

[jerry33]

No, not in so many words. Here's the line from the letter: "We recently signed an agreement with Daimler to create an entire electric powertrain for a new Mercedes-Benz EV, thus formalizing the joint effort kicked off in Q4 last year. This program is expected to exceed in value the sum of all powertrain agreements signed in Tesla history."

Elon said to one caller that he expected the Mercedes program to be an order of magnitude larger than all agreements so far. That's a far cry (10X!) from "expected to exceed in value".

You would never put 10X down in writing just in case it was only 9X.

 

[zack]

But my point, as I stated in my original post, is that this is the best news of the day for me. 20,000 Model S cars averaging $60K each is $1.2B/year in Model S gross sales, so that Mercedes thing looks pretty darned good at $1.5B.

 

[Norbert]

Elon said to one caller that he expected the Mercedes program to be an order of magnitude larger than all agreements so far. That's a far cry (10X!) from "expected to exceed in value".

However not in the first step. Not already agreed upon in writing, I'd think. Just what he thinks it will likely be its size eventually.

EDIT: But my understanding was it meant larger than something like $240 million, at this step.

 

[zack]

Correct, however he's confident they'll get there with Mercedes because he said today that Tesla has met all of the milestones so far.

So, who thinks Tesla will jump significantly tomorrow?

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

So, who thinks Tesla will jump significantly tomorrow?

Me! Me! Me! (hands raised, waving frantically)

This has been one heck of a day for Tesla fanboys

 

[ckessel]

Me! Me! Me! (hands raised, waving frantically)

This has been one heck of a day for Tesla fanboys

Yea, I'm really glad my trade went through this last morning before the call. I was worried about the losses, but Tesla seems to have had really good news each call in the last few quarters so I figured all things considered buying in today was better than tomorrow.

 

[JRod0802]

I like when Elon said "I am primarily an email processing device". It made me laugh. :smile:

 

[JRod0802]

The 500 mile pack was just a 'we could if we wanted' thing, it would have to use cargo space if they actually did it...

Did I miss the part about it the theoretical 500 mile pack requiring cargo space, or is that an assumption?

 

[zack]

Yeah. I wonder if there's a bit more room in the floor. Or, if there's a proven production battery around the corner that increases power density.

 

[MarkR]

Did I miss the part about it the theoretical 500 mile pack requiring cargo space, or is that an assumption?

I'd be happy to give up the frunk for more miles.

 

[Norbert]

Did I miss the part about it the theoretical 500 mile pack requiring cargo space, or is that an assumption?

Elon said something like this in the Q&A session today (unless I misunderstood that part).