TSLA Investor Discussions

[gg_got_a_tesla]

daniel, that was a good summary of the stock market overall and the situation with TSLA/Elon in particular. Unfortunately, it's a wasted effort when it comes to Cali; we've all been over this ground before with him till we were blue in the face but to no avail.

I hope we can resist reacting to his outbursts in the future; silence might be the best response.

Regarding Toyota, despite Akio Toyoda's favorable impressions of Tesla and Elon (and which probably helped seal the deal on NUMMI), Toyota has stayed put on its line that they believe in Hybrids rather than EVs as the way to go for the next decade or two. The RAV4EV is indeed a cynical compliance move, not very different from GM's EV1 effort all those years ago. By my math, if you take way the $100 million owed to Tesla, Toyota's at best making $11K per each of the 2,600 RAV4EVs not counting their own development and manufacturing costs; the real margin is probably far lower.

 

[zack]

Well, if they break even and learn something in the process, that's a heck of a lot better than buying credits from another manufacturer.

 

[BYT_P1837]

People, do not forget Toyota SELL's the RAV4 EV! No leasing or fleets only! (unlike others)
Do not forget Tesla first also only planned 2000 cars I think, to plan 500 more once it got running! If Lotus where still producing gliders, they would still be selling lots more (and airbag-regulation permited)
So Toyota can be conservatively planning 2500 cars, but if they can sell more with profit why wouldn't they?

Toyota has a big advantage! They have already the people who are used to own an EV! People with EV experience! I can understand some will like to stay with the brand! So I am certain they will sell more RAV4 EV's as they thought!

I can't think of a single advantage the 2012 Rav4 EV has over any other EV aside from the SUV moniker. But why would you buy an averagely equipped SUV that is the same price as other luxury SUV's but with the limited 100 mile range? As a Rav4 V6 owner, I had much higher expectations and maybe my disappointment has blinded me to any advantages. I guess if I want a real SUV now, then I better get my name on the Model X list!

 

[JRP3]

For the price no other EV has similar range or cargo room. I can see a potential LEAF customer who want's the larger vehicle with probably at least 30 miles of more range.

 

[dmckinstry]

Yep, my 29.99 fired. That's the bulk of my money for the car in TSLA, so it's all up to the stock now as to whether or not I can actually buy the car come November-ish My theory is if the stock tanks then there's probably good reason not to get the car anyway (and I can live with my current car for a bunch of years if needed).

I'm pretty much where you are. About a quarter in CDs and the rest is TSLA. The trouble is I don't want to sell all my TSLA to get the car (especially since I want everything except performance, sound upgrade, rear facing seats and pano roof). If TSLA doesn't go up quite significantly, I may have to put off the purchase until next year (maybe even late next year).

 

[BYT_P1837]

For the price no other EV has similar range or cargo room. I can see a potential LEAF customer who want's the larger vehicle with probably at least 30 miles of more range.

Well, Toyota claims 100 miles per charge, not Tesla in this case so it still maybe more like ~80 miles on a charge based on EPA ratings, time will tell on that. To tie this all back on subject, I am speculating how the Toyota offering effects the TSLA stock as both a partner and representative of the EV market (in case the TMC Mods ask)

 

[Citizen-T]

Letter is up, they are shipping in June!

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1516034094x0x567959/9429b5fe-3ebc-4e93-9fe9-7655b15301f1/Q1%202012%20Tesla%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf

 

[AnOutsider]

Letter is up, they are shipping in June!

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1516034094x0x567959/9429b5fe-3ebc-4e93-9fe9-7655b15301f1/Q1%202012%20Tesla%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf

Model S deliveries to start ahead of schedule in June

Are you happy-dancing or shall I?

Found this interesting:

We recently signed an agreement with Daimler to create an entire electric powertrain for a new Mercedes-Benz
EV, thus formalizing the joint effort kicked off in Q4 last year. This program is expected to exceed in value the sum
of all powertrain agreements signed in Tesla history. Producing at this expected volume will allow for economies
of scale that give the resulting vehicle a cost of ownership that is on par with its gasoline equivalent.

My takeaway:

• Tesla is SERIOUS about power train development and isn't just giving lip services to being more than a direct manufacturer.
• Tesla will likely see significant revenue from Power train development (this deal alone)
• Tesla isn't afraid to "help the competition" and is sticking by the whole "we want to make all cars EVs" (The Mercedes being a great EV and priced alongside its gas counterpart would be huge for MB)

 

[Citizen-T]

Loss was $0.76 a share, worse than expected, but as we've discussed that is probably meaningless. Shipping ahead of schedule should be all that investors (and shorts) take from this letter.

Stock is up nearly 5% in after-hours trading.

 

[Norbert]

Got to highlight this part:

Producing at this expected volume will allow for economies of scale that give the resulting vehicle a cost of ownership that is on par with its gasoline equivalent.

 

[smorgasbord]

OK, less than 24 hours until the 2012 Q1 earning call. Let's go public with our predictions!

So far, I'm batting 1000:

1a) Toyota shipping? Check. Note Tesla claims range is 170 miles
1b) Over 10K deposits for Model S? Check. Over 1000 Model X deposits? Check.
1c) Lost money in Q1? Check. (0.76/share to be exact, larger than expected)

2a) Deliveries in June? Check!

3) Release Candidate Vehicles announced? Check.

4) Additional financing NOT required? Check.

Bonuses:
Daimler powertrain deal is larger than sum of all Tesla powertrain deals put together!
30 RC vehicles already made!
EPA Certifications complete.
Crash testing almost all done. 5-star ratings (overall) still expected given actual (internal to Tesla) crash tests.
Q2 revenue guided higher due to June Model S deliveries! (Still a loss, though)
Only 250 Roadsters left world-wide.
Someone in Europe has driven their Roadster 200,000 kilometers.


Stock up 5% within 8 minutes after hours.

 

[Citizen-T]

There's a new blog post too if you didn't see it.

Model S Efficiency and Range | Blog | Tesla Motors

 

[BYT_P1837]

1a) Toyota shipping? Check. Note Tesla claims range is 170 miles

If this is true as apposed to my more pessimistic guess of 80 miles per charge based on Toyota's 100 mile claim, then this would be worth it's $50k cost prior to the tax credit. EPA ratings will decide that one hopefully in the next few months.

 

[zack]

My Power ETrade Pro says the stock is up $1.72? Hmm. I'm restarting it. I've never seen after-hours trading go up that fast within 1/2 hour of closing. Can I trade after-hours on ETrade?

 

[BYT_P1837]

My Power ETrade Pro says the stock is up $1.72? Hmm. I'm restarting it. I've never seen after-hours trading go up that fast within 1/2 hour of closing. Can I trade after-hours on ETrade?

I would be very careful with after hours trading as it's a whole new ball game once the lifeguards are no longer monitoring the swimming pool, so to speak.

 

[Citizen-T]

Yeah, I stay away from after-hours.

 

[dmckinstry]

There's a new blog post too if you didn't see it.

Model S Efficiency and Range | Blog | Tesla Motors

Good info. Is the data with the standard wheels rather than the aero wheels?

If the former, then the 5 cycle estimate of 265 miles would be even better with the latter.

 

[zack]

Power E*Trade Pro does let me do it, but I'll heed your advice, guys.

Wow, it's up $2.31 now. I wonder what it will open at tomorrow? I guess I should just listen to the quarterly report in 49 minutes. 8^D

 

[smorgasbord]

Can I trade after-hours on ETrade?

Probably. You might need to OK some documents online. Go to the TSLA quote page and show after hours, then see if you get BUY and SELL buttons.

All after-hours trades through ETrade are limit orders. So, it's not as dangerous as some are warning. Just know that the price jumps all over the place after hours, so don't get caught up in the euphoria.

 

[zack]

There's so many buttons, so many acronyms, so many abbreviations on this application. I wish I had someone looking over my shoulder making sure I'm not making a mistake.