Gtoffo
Member
Wow if those numbers are reliable this is extremely interesting........I can't find a lot of info on the site regarding where the data comes from though......
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Wow if those numbers are reliable this is extremely interesting........I can't find a lot of info on the site regarding where the data comes from though......
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
While the cost to short tesla isn't high at all, 1.5%, the number of shares available to short has dropped drastically if I recall correctly. I am checking Fidelity right now, and it is down from millions of available shares to 470,000.
Anyone have any better data on this?
Anyone have any better data on this?
Good question, I suspect short interest has been creeping back up over the past month.
we will see tomorrow after the close the official short interest published by NASDAQ as of end of the trade day on Tuesday Nov 12th (for settlement Nov 15th).
On that day (Nov 12) it opened at 144.69 and closed at 137.80 on 15mm volume. Keep in mind most of TSLA's volume these days is high frequency trading algos and perhaps only 25% is genuine buys/sells by people/entities looking to keep the position for more than a few seconds/minutes.
I am going to speculate that short interest has risen up to 24mm shares by then but I hope it is higher. Higher the short interest is already the higher the likelihood of another short squeeze in our future.
A short squeeze would happen when funds are all buying and forcing smaller retail investors who may be short to cover. However, the last big short squeeze came in two sections. The run-up to 161.88 and then the final run-up to end Q3 at 190+. If it wasn't for the fires I think TSLA would be at $200+ going into ER and then 150 immediately after (we saw a dip on the ER anyway). That would be the catalyst to shut down any near-term short squeezes. Various folks here have stated it is trading on TA right now and without monthly sales number announcements, nothing newsworthy other than material planning changes like "Model X due out July 2014" or something like that would counter the TA trading (IMO). This has been quite a year for TSLA, investors and EV advocacy.
In my view, no short squeeze is possible until it lands below the SMA 200 and does a retracement up, should that happen.
In my view, no short squeeze is possible until it lands below the SMA 200 and does a retracement up, should that happen.
Short interest as of 11/15/13 (settled date) was published today (Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com). Since it takes 3 business days to settle, the 11/15/13 settled date is reflective of short interest as the end of trading on 11/12/13.
So as of 11/12/13, 25.39m out of 79.85m shares of the float were short OR 31.8% of the float was short.
So as of 11/12/13, 25.39m out of 79.85m shares of the float were short OR 31.8% of the float was short.
| Settlement Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Share Volume | Days To Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/15/2013 | 25,390,455 | 16,974,121 | 1.495833 |
| 10/31/13 | 21,419,497 | 9,851,553 | 2.174225 |
| 10/15/2013 | 20,813,894 | 13,356,976 | 1.558279 |
| 9/30/2013 | 20,931,318 | 8,540,203 | 2.450916 |
| 9/13/2013 | 21,021,797 | 9,055,308 | 2.321489 |
| 8/30/2013 | 21,557,853 | 11,893,336 | 1.812599 |
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
Shares available to short from fidelity went from 473,000 yesterday to 435,590, with a cost of 1.25%
11/26/13 435,590 (1.25%)
11/25/13 473,000 (1.25%)
11/26/13 435,590 (1.25%)
11/25/13 473,000 (1.25%)
The TSLA short interest continued to climb through November 15 as shown by the data published after today's close.
Settlement Date - Short Interest - Avg Daily Share Volume - Days To Cover
11/15/2013 - 25,390,455 - 16,974,121 - 1.495833
10/31/2013 - 21,419,497 - 09,851,553 - 2.174225
10/15/2013 - 20,813,894 - 13,356,976 - 1.558279
Link to NASDAQ page for TSLA short interest: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest
Settlement Date - Short Interest - Avg Daily Share Volume - Days To Cover
11/15/2013 - 25,390,455 - 16,974,121 - 1.495833
10/31/2013 - 21,419,497 - 09,851,553 - 2.174225
10/15/2013 - 20,813,894 - 13,356,976 - 1.558279
Link to NASDAQ page for TSLA short interest: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest
I guess one could only hope for a blowout Q4 and superb 2014 guidance and thus hopefully have a "mother of all short squeezes"
Be careful what you wish for.
Historically, the stocks with the highest short interest have been the worst performers. Only 2013 has been different and people are very quick to forget market principles.
Yes, but at least the high short interest accounts for some of the downward price pressure - at this price point I'd rather have a higher short interest than lower. Plus, we know a lot of it is based on FUD that should eventually be cleared up.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I am just citing statistics in general without distinguishing individual companies.
If short interest goes up to 30m for the next report in 15 days, then the stock is probably going to be at $100 rather than $140. That's why I said be careful what you wish for...
Other than that I agree with you. I am long TSLA, but am still worried in the short run. I would rather see the short interest not go up and have the stock stabilize around $120.
Chickenlittle
Banned
I believe you are missing the point that the reported short interest reflects where it was two weeks ago. It may already be at 30 million and why the price is at 120 now
We may not be talking at cross purposes, if we both understand the difference between the level of a function and its derivative (change), and what correlates with past events and what predicts the future. Indeed, the November 15 high level of short interest reflects the recent drop in share price. We saw an even higher level after the New York Times fiasco last winter which pressured the share price. Then as the share price rose, shorts covered resulting in a decline in short interest and even higher prices. A high level of short interest can provide a partial reason for price drops in the recent past. It can also be a signal of a potential price rise in the future, since short sellers eventually have to buy back their borrowed shares unless the company goes bankrupt. Indeed, if we find a significantly higher short interest at the end of November, that may suggest that the price fell even more in the last half of the month. But that would not necessarily be a negative indicator for December and could be a positive one.
I understand everything you are saying and I agree with you.
But what if short interest goes to 40m and then 50m on more bad news and the stock goes a lot lower? I think a " be careful what you wish for" is in order. I don't want to see the stock any lower and short interest higher. I would be fine with consolidation at $120 and a slowly declining short interest on the way up.
wow! My guess was close but not high enough, that was two weeks ago.
I'm now guessing today it must really be closer to 28-30mm shares short which we shall find out on Dec 10th.
Actually, what willbe published on Dec 10th after the close will be the short interest as of end of day on Monday (settlement for T+3 would be 11/29 since Thursday is a holiday).
im much happier that the short interest increased 4mm shares during the price movement from 180s down to the 140s. If the short interest hasn't increased then that would signal a lot more weakness in the stock.
4mm shares doesn't sound like a lot when 'daily volume' is 10mm but the daily volume metric you can pretty much throw out the window. It's not a good metric because the vast majority of TSLA volume now is from algos and HFTs that buy/sell intraday (intra second in many cases) and aren't shorting the stock overnight or going long overnight even. Whether the algos/HFTs makes up 50-60% or 90-95% of daily volume I have no idea and not sure how one could measure that in any practical way even if they wanted to.
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