RobStark
Well-Known Member
Yes, but I expect Tesla to sell 400k plus BEVs in 2020 vs maybe 8k FCEV for Toyota.
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Toyota 'Mirai' Fuel Cell Sedan
- Thread starter ivog
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Yes, but I expect Tesla to sell 400k plus BEVs in 2020 vs maybe 8k FCEV for Toyota.
does heavily subsidised leases to Japanese affiliates count as a sale? or is this a US only? or is it 8k per annum?
I don't think it matters. By 2020 FCs will have gone the way of steam powered cars.
Btw, if the guy that said he'll eat his hat if AP changed lanes successfully doesn't eat his hat, then my offer is void.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Global sales and leases to individuals,NGOs and Government entities.
I expect 90% of those sales to be in countries,states, provinces and or cities that offer heavy FCEV subsides. Japanese government and Toyota's hometown city are at the forefront of those efforts.
It seems many regional governments were forced to buy Mirai
it's hard to refill Hydrogen even in Tokyo though. At car related trade shows and demonstrations, Mirais are always carried by flatbeds 
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
57 MPGe in their real world testing. Mentioned in one place a "top off" to 270 miles range took 4 minutes, but no mention on how empty it was before filling.
Chuq
Well-Known Member
Very disappointing to see that one of the biggest marketing coups for BTTF day - Christopher Lloyd and Michael J Fox themselves - was wasted on this vehicle which, in 2045, will be as unrealistic as flying cars are in 2015.
Great video as a BTTF fan - not as a BEV fan.
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Very clever video that the unwashed masses will enjoy. Did you note how the bio-gas was "mixed" with natural gas to make hydrogen?
From evchels on twitter:
At least two @AirResources Board members have ordered @Toyota Mirais.
10/22/15, 17:02
Why am I not surprised. Sigh.
At least two @AirResources Board members have ordered @Toyota Mirais.
10/22/15, 17:02
Why am I not surprised. Sigh.
Of course... aren't they current or former members / directors of the California Hydrogen Coalition?
My view is... Tesla is on its own class. Mirai will compete with LEAF, although Mirai is bigger.
basic Tesla D has 500HP vs 150HP Mirai
Where's the Mirai autopilot, 17" screen, frunk, 7 seat capacity.
Can't compare.
The fools who buy a Mirai will be the ones that never got a Tesla test drive.
And the LEAF already has 155 mile range 40% cheaper the price. Hint, hint, Nissan, please offer 200+ mile range battery, make deal with Tesla, share supercharger network... On can dream.
PS: oops, LEAF large pack European range is 251Km (155 miles), but EPA range is 107 miles. Weird.
basic Tesla D has 500HP vs 150HP Mirai
Where's the Mirai autopilot, 17" screen, frunk, 7 seat capacity.
Can't compare.
The fools who buy a Mirai will be the ones that never got a Tesla test drive.
And the LEAF already has 155 mile range 40% cheaper the price. Hint, hint, Nissan, please offer 200+ mile range battery, make deal with Tesla, share supercharger network... On can dream.
PS: oops, LEAF large pack European range is 251Km (155 miles), but EPA range is 107 miles. Weird.
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Leaf is bigger on the inside. 5 seats vs 4 seats, as well as more cargo space.
I think the Model S is meaningless to compare with. A more meningful comparison is the Volt. 4 seats vs 4 seats, similar trunk space, similar performance and they should be similar when it comes to the environmental impact.
The current Leaf has more like 100 miles real life range, and indications are that this will increase to around 150-200 miles in 2016, when the next gen Leaf is launched.
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This isn't weird. The US EPA testing is a lot more realistic than the EU NEDC testing. The only way you'll achieve 155 miles in a Leaf is in a lab. (Or driving at 20 mph in summer with no AC.)
Kipernicus
Model S Res#P1440
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
People get so confused about Leaf generations if they don't follow close.
2016 won't be Gen 2. It'll be a 30 kWh pack in gen 1.x body.
here is an old quote from another forum I post at
to update that it'll be something like
1.3 2016 Leaf S trim (stripped with 24 kWh pack, basically a re badged 2015)
1.5 2016 Leaf SV/SL with 30 kWh pack
will 2.0 come in 2017 model year or 2018 model year or 2019 model year? Who the F knows.
What we do know is what Nissan calls Leaf 2.x won't come until there is a pack around 60 kWh in a Leaf.
Maybe they'll even float a 48 kWh pack between the 30 kWh and the 60 kWh. Maybe that will be the 2017 1.x revision. If they put a 48 kWh pack in a 1.x body I'd give that a 1.75 designation for now.
as to range, there was much confusion between years because EPA doesn't test range it just makes rules about how you state the range. So a a 2012 with a 80% charge option, a 2013 with a 80% charge option and a 2014 with a no 80% charge option got three different EPA range stickers even though all three cars had the exact same real world range and would test the exact same in EPA tests should they get selected for such.
Oh and newer posts of people testing 2015 battery packs in hot environments aren't looking that good for "lizard" status on the "lizard" packs.
I'll agree that a 2012 Leaf with no degradation will do 100 miles real world I did 85 miles on a 83% SOH pack and I didn't drive it all the way to turtle.
The 30 kWh version is testing around 25.75 kWh usable. Multiply that by your favorite miles per and you get
129 miles at 5.0 m/kwh (200 Wh/m) (any of the below but driving slower)
121 miles at 4.7 m/kwh (212 Wh/m) (what I drive spring/fall with no AC/heat)
115 miles at 4.5 m/kwh (222 Wh/m) (summer with moderate AC)
108 miles at 4.2 m/kwh (238 Wh/m) (very hot summer, strong AC use, or winter with seat heater and heated steering wheel use)
103 miles at 4.0 m/kwh (250 Wh/m) (any of the above but driving faster)
that's with a 30 kWh pack, 0.5 kWh reserved at the bottom and 3.75? kWh reserved at the top and/or reserved to hide degradation. Not sure if that should really total exactly 30.
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Candleflame
Active Member
Its probably one of those "we have gone too far and invested too much to stop" moments... I remember in the 90s me and my dad went to this car expo in Germany where my dad also got to drive a hydrogen car. I think it was from BMW actually.
It seemed pretty attractive back in the days. The manufacturers wanted to build electric cars, but in the 90s there were no batteries which could give suitable range and noone thought that lithion batteries would become so advanced (as it then happened through laptop, smartphone technology etc). I remember the spokesperson at the expo said their biggest challenge at the moment is to sort out the whole refueling and hydrogen manufacturing business.
Fastforward 20 years later and we now have advanced batteries which will be extremly affordable in the next 20 years which makes the whole electricty to hydrogen to electricity conversion seem stupid and expensive but Toyota invested more than 20 years into hydrogen EV RDnE...
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