Yes, to me service centers are more important than test drives. I think Tesla can work around the test drive problem with rentals and special events.
The reason I'm not concerned, currently, about the US dealership situation is that:
- there aren't many states where Tesla can't have service centers
You overlook the fact that the most aggressive attacks against Tesla Motors' preferred sales method would have outright banned their operations unless they submitted to contracting with 'independent franchised dealerships'. Missouri would have forced the closure of an existing Service Center and possibly prevented any Supercharger installations as well if some last minute legislation had not been stopped last year. Iowa stopped an event planned at a hotel based on complaints lodged by a dealership, then revoked Tesla's ability to do business there. Michigan removed a single word from existing law and effectively banned Tesla Motors for life -- or until they agree to only promote sales through 'independent franchised dealerships'.
A test drive is not that important to me, personally. I have literally never had a test drive of any vehicle, new or used, prior to purchasing it. But the revelation of what makes electric drive so much better than ICE is immediately compelling, practically infectious, readily apparent, and not easily ignored by anyone with a pulse that drives a Tesla Product for the first time. Dealership organizations are fully aware of that fact. That is why they work so hard to eliminate any possibility of potential Customers being able to test drive Model S. I expect them to redouble their efforts once Model X is also available for test drives. Because SUVs and minivans are both high volume, high margin market segments, having a viable electric vehicle -- with Tesla levels of performance -- placed against them could cause a disruption that might not be survivable by traditional ICE vehicles.
It isn't so much a matter of what is 'more important'. It is instead a matter of setting priorities. Once it is sorted out that Tesla Motors can sell direct, the question of test drives and service centers becomes moot. Because each is an included subset of sales and operations.
- word of mouth and peer test drives are the best form of advertising
- People buy online all the time
Tesla Motors sold perhaps 0.001 of all the new passenger vehicles purchased in the United States of America last year. Something tells me a lot more Friends and Family were given test rides in Ford F-150s during 2014. The Model S is not a high volume vehicle. One-on-one showings of it cannot be the best means of introducing the entire nation to Tesla Motors. It would simply take too long, and Tesla doesn't have that kind if time.
They must have brick and mortar locations in order to solidify their market presence in the minds of the populace. Not everyone in the world is comfortable with the idea of buying so much as a pizza over the internet. They will go to Rosario's and place their order at the takeout window. True enough, the point of sale system used by their waiter may be tied to the exact same internet database, and their order may be filled the same as it would have from their home PC. But some still need to have human interaction for the sake of personal comfort with the experience.
The Great State of Virginia originally proposed to ban even online sales of Tesla Motors products. The Lone Star State of Texas was poised to follow suit in that regard. Then someone pointed out to them that it was against Federal law, and the US Constitution, to restrict interstate sales. And those provisions were dropped/waived in favor of restrictions related solely to Tesla's actions within those states.
- people don't trust dealerships, and buying from Tesla is not buying from an out of state dealer. Given early adopters and early pragmatists supporting peers, and a good product, I think that issue will rapidly be overcome. (I also think that it could help some of the volume dealers who are already geared to Interstate sales.)
Again, the only reason it is possible to buy a Tesla Motors product anywhere in the United States is because no single state can outlaw interstate commerce in any industry. Tesla Motors is not allowed to 'sell' cars in Texas and other States where they are restricted to having Galleries instead of Stores. But any citizen of those States can buy a car from the California based company.
- Tesla is still currently selling "rich men's toys" which doesn't have the political effect that a more affordable, high-demand car would have
The problem is that the actions of 'independent franchised dealerships' are meant to prevent the easy exposure to the 'more affordable' cars that Tesla Motors will offer in the next two years. Dealership organizations are fully aware that people who had never purchased a vehicle in excess of $40,000 before have bought Model S, even if it were a stretch. They know it was a test drive that compelled that leap of faith. They know that Model ≡ will likely cause people who had never spent over $20,000 for a car to stretch to the $35,000+ price range when presented with a similar option. It was bad enough when it took weeks or months longer than usual to move premium cars because Tesla Model S entered the market. It will be far worse when such a slowdown threatens perennial favorites such as Accord, Camry, Fusion, Malibu, et al, as buyers realize they don't mind paying a little more, and waiting a little longer, for the privilege of driving the best possible car they can afford.
- CA and several other key large US markets do not have barriers to selling.
No. Every State that allows Tesla Motors to sell does so with concessions that are balanced with limits and barriers. The terms vary from one State to the next. Some expect Tesla to use 'independent franchised dealerships' once they have sold a certain quantity of vehicles, or upon review at a later date, or if they need more tha certain number of locations. These compromises are all based upon the notion that eventually Tesla will tow the line and sell 'just like everyone else'.
- The rest of the world isn't like the USA and a $35k long-distance electric has huge potential in many other countries, especially those with high fuel prices.
The world is not enough. No one has ever been elected President of the United States of America without winning their home state. Tesla Motors must be successful, here, in the US, at all costs. TSLA will take a major hit, though it would be survivable, if Tesla sales were truly banned everywhere but California due to dealership franchise laws. Sure, lots of cars are sold in this State, and a significant portion of Tesla sales will always be here. But it will be very hard to challenge total sales on the National scale if the dealership issues are not resolved in Tesla's favor before the release of Model ≡.
