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If you want to ship internationally from the UK, you probably want a factory near southampton. Somerset is great for cream teas and sightseeing, but its a tourist trap, not a major manufacturing location.

An alternative would be in the Goole, Castleford, Selby area (Google Maps):
  • close to the Humber ports: vehicle, container, chemical and general ports
  • good road links, A1(M) and M62
  • good rail links
  • near Leeds-Bradford conurbation, also reasonably close to York, Sheffield and Hull (so 2+ million within easy commuting distance)
  • industrial area
  • lots of flat green-field land
 
You must have done well on your covered calls this week.

These were 5 calls I sold when the SP was $805, so I didn't get a huge premium for them, but enough to buy 4 more core shares. I chose that strike as I thought it was safe, but still gave a decent premium, but with $TSLA you never know :D
 
Good grief. To the people rating this “funny” or “disagree”, I just gotta know what part of that post triggered that, especially the disagrees:
  • I know it’s only a one-time thing (stretched over about a year)
  • but, given it’s well-known that the making of concrete is a huge contributor to greenhouse gases,
  • I’m curious how much CO2 etc is being generated in order to build GigaBerlin.
  • Has Tesla said anything?
Quick source on well-known carbon emissions problem with concrete:
Environmental impact of concrete - Wikipedia
No matter who is trying to improve the situation, there are always people who are more than willing to take some small part of the puzzle and use that to criticize them.
 
Good grief. To the people rating this “funny” or “disagree”, I just gotta know what part of that post triggered that, especially the disagrees:
  • I know it’s only a one-time thing (stretched over about a year)
  • but, given it’s well-known that the making of concrete is a huge contributor to greenhouse gases,
  • I’m curious how much CO2 etc is being generated in order to build GigaBerlin.
  • Has Tesla said anything?
Quick source on well-known carbon emissions problem with concrete:
Environmental impact of concrete - Wikipedia

interesting, but what alternative are they supposed to use?
seems similar to using fuel for rockets. yes it’s bad, but probably a use case worthy of the emissions and impact.
 
Thought question for someone who's been in market for 10+ years ...
What kind of returns are you looking for next 5 years? (Average returns is like 8%, Hedge funds get 30+ returns annually).

Just want to know the mindset and approach others are taking.

thanks in advance ...
 
Low volume again today in the Pre-market (but not as low as yesterday):

2020-06-05 08:00 $872.00 46,784 shares

TSLA.2020-06-05.08-00.png


SP @ 08:09 hrs was $870.00 (+0.65%)

Cheers!
 
Thought question for someone who's been in market for 10+ years ...
What kind of returns are you looking for next 5 years? (Average returns is like 8%, Hedge funds get 30+ returns annually).

Just want to know the mindset and approach others are taking.

thanks in advance ...
SP 500 average return over 90 years is 9.8% hard to top that. Bernie Madoff only claimed he could double that, what hedge fund averages 30%?
 
I don't think it's an unreasonable question to ask [in the TSLA stock movements thread].
Yes it is unreasonable. I would love to discuss this here, but it would clutter up the stock thread , so I'm going to discuss it over in the Berlin Gigafactory thread. Do people ask about Autopilot in the Supercharging thread? Do they ask about Wheel options for Model S in the Model 3 threads? Do they ask about Solar Roof installation in Model X Suspension threads?

Why is it reasonable to discuss concrete use specifically at the German factory (as if other Tesla factories are different) IN THE STOCK THREAD? Answer: it is not.
 
What kind of returns are you looking for next 5 years?
TSLA +50% / yr for the next 5 years just on the strength of the automotive business. TE doubles this if a suitable bty tech is introduced (manufacturing cost and volume). RoboTaxi might be 5-10 (who knows?) if it also becomes a viable business.

Remember, Elon needed to build Falcon 9 to launch Starlink. Now Starlink is a business with 10x broadband internet revenues vs SpaceX's original launch business. Similarly, Tesla needed to build an affordable EV (and the BATTERIES!) to launch the Robotaxi business. o_O

Adding it all up: (Revenue in Billions)

5 Years: 20*10^9 * 1.50^5 + 0.5*10^9 * 1.50^5 = $155 B / yr
@ 20% Gross profit is $31 B / yr

10 Years: 20*10^9 * 1.50^10 + 0.5*10^9 * 1.50^10 = $1.2 T / yr
@ 20% Gross profit is $236 B / yr​

That's just Automotive and T.E. by 2030. Robotaxi is extra. 5x revenue would be:

5 * (20*10^9 * 1.50^10) = $5.8 T​

But Gross Margins could be half again (conservatively) due to removing so much labor from the Operations side (FSD vs Drivers) for the Robotaxi Business, so

@ 30% Gross profit is $1.73 T / yr​

That's what I expect by 2030. I'll let @FrankSG estimate the SP. :cool:

Cheers!
 
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SP 500 average return over 90 years is 9.8% hard to top that. Bernie Madoff only claimed he could double that, what hedge fund averages 30%?

Thanks the longer the duration, the more the average will go towards 8%.
Regarding Hedge funds, I have read in few places, here is an example https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/articles/top-hedge-funds-this-year

On this thread I keep seeing 10X returns etc etc. I think long term pic of 10% annualized would be the best for me :)

Still expecting atleast 3X from TSLA, and that would also help my long term goals.

Recently I was selling ATM Jan 21 puts for a broad selection of recovery stocks with 17% return, so I guess that was a good bet to make.
 
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For anybody wondering:

These are spread footings atop “mud slabs” (low strength, unreinforced concrete used to produce a level, dry and firm surface for the actual footing) The footings appear to have significant starter column reinforcement in the center, which means either a really tall column or something really heavy is going on top. The blue and grey parts on the trucks appear to be formwork for the footings.

There’s some sort of Geosynthetic going down (white stuff) that is getting buried again, which is probably being used to improve the subgrade strength. I would suspect a raft slab type foundation will be used for the portions of the factory that don’t need the shear resistance that the footings are being used for. Pretty common solution for this type of building.

Not seeing any evidence of pipe or H pile on site, I doubt there will be any for this factory as it would be well underway by now with everything cleared and graded. I also don’t see any piling rigs sitting around.

The major difference between here and Shanghai is the number of concurrent operations. Local aggregate supply seems to be an issue (it is being trained in) and I assume the local concrete plant also trains in their aggregate as there are concrete trucks driving to the site and no localized batch plant.

Articulated haulers on the sand and highway haulers on the gravel roads. It actually looks like all of the gravel is being used exclusively for haul roads. Normal for operations on sand, no fun getting highway trucks stuck.

This buildout is probably more comparable to GF1 and will likely take shape in a very similar fashion. If I recall, GF1 excavated their footings, which is handy as you don’t need to form them if the soil is competent enough not to slough, but it looks like a lot of sand here, so no such luck.

Credentials: I have all these toys on my site, but we’re building a different widget.
What would be cool if you could get your hands on this video and edit it with your more technical captions of the build. it is so fascinating to watch this thing go up. Thanks for your observations.
 
To add onto Franks excellent breakdown of how Tesla is (to me) easily a 3-4X potential investment from these levels, he's not even including Tesla Energy and Robotaxi. Both of which are still very speculative of if/when they will happen or ramp up in production........but if either of them do become a big part of Tesla's business, it moves that 3-4X into the territory of 5-8X from these levels. If FSD and Robotaxi actually happens, Tesla is easily an $8,000 stock.

Fair to say Robotaxi is still very speculative. But I disagree Tesla Energy battery storage business is speculative. The economics are just too compelling (for gas peaker plants as a starter) for it not to blossom into a much larger contributor to revenue and profit.
That is true today and when battery day finally arrives it's going to be doubly so. What we don't know yet is how fast it will ramp over the next several years.
 
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For anybody wondering:

These are spread footings atop “mud slabs” (low strength, unreinforced concrete used to produce a level, dry and firm surface for the actual footing) The footings appear to have significant starter column reinforcement in the center, which means either a really tall column or something really heavy is going on top. The blue and grey parts on the trucks appear to be formwork for the footings.

There’s some sort of Geosynthetic going down (white stuff) that is getting buried again, which is probably being used to improve the subgrade strength. I would suspect a raft slab type foundation will be used for the portions of the factory that don’t need the shear resistance that the footings are being used for. Pretty common solution for this type of building.

Not seeing any evidence of pipe or H pile on site, I doubt there will be any for this factory as it would be well underway by now with everything cleared and graded. I also don’t see any piling rigs sitting around.

The major difference between here and Shanghai is the number of concurrent operations. Local aggregate supply seems to be an issue (it is being trained in) and I assume the local concrete plant also trains in their aggregate as there are concrete trucks driving to the site and no localized batch plant.

Articulated haulers on the sand and highway haulers on the gravel roads. It actually looks like all of the gravel is being used exclusively for haul roads. Normal for operations on sand, no fun getting highway trucks stuck.

This buildout is probably more comparable to GF1 and will likely take shape in a very similar fashion. If I recall, GF1 excavated their footings, which is handy as you don’t need to form them if the soil is competent enough not to slough, but it looks like a lot of sand here, so no such luck.

Credentials: I have all these toys on my site, but we’re building a different widget.

I think you missed the concurrent aggregated reinforced articulated localized geosynthetic H piles made of bat goop. Hmmpf
 
This is the location Google Maps

It ticks most of the boxes for a location of a gigafactory, but there are in my opinion two potential deal breakers

  • The owners of the Gravity site want a long term lease, which is probably more expensive in the long term and probably limits what Tesla can do to the site.
  • It is a brown-field site being a former armaments factory, ground works and environmental amelioration before construction starts could easily take over a year.

There is actually a really good tech scene in Bristol, but most of the tech talent is either in London or a bit further north. Agree with Cliff that it is quite a drive from Luton to the west side, miles are deceiving in the UK.