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Look at all the car transporters leaving Gigafactory Berlin in the first 2 minutes of this video. It is a burst of activity and not representative of the whole day, but still impressive.

It looks like another "no news" day.

If Y was demand limited, you would expect inventory to grow as production in Berlin and Austin continues to ramp. There is also much of the world where the Y is not sold, including much of Asia, Middle East, Africa and Central and Southern America.

Create Musk Holdings Transfer his shares from various ventures into it. Sell shares in Musk Holdings Use proceeds to buy TSLA and create new companies. This maintains Elon's control of existing companies, but dilutes ownership. For TESLA it increases ownership and control. Companies that need...

And for those who say Omar is just a cheerleader

Emplace wiring harness, sensors, actuators, etc. within the mould, then inject the plastic. Snap fit the panels together and glue onto frame. This can all possibly be fully automated. They may not do it that way.

"NEWS: 16,300 Teslas were insured in China last week, up 36% YoY - CPCA" Exports also look strong with lots of ships https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/edit?pli=1#gid=0

It looks like FSD is going to be released soon in China and Europe (I can't find the posts on X at the moment)

It looks like we have a new hyper-bull. Interesting that he has assigned a high value to distributed inference, a business that was first mentioned only a few months ago. Tesla/Elon continue to throw off multi-billion business ideas at a high rate. As to the actual valuation, it seems highly...

VRU = Vulnerable Road User

Rob Maurer seems to have made a rare mistake concentrating on the "other income (expense), net" line where foreign exchange on intercompany transfers has yielded a £328M one-off positive. He should have looked at total foreign exchange movement consequencies on results, this is a one-off...

Another rumour with big consequencies:

I wonder if this is correct?

It looks like FSD 11.4.4 is rolling out. For a point release there is an extensive list of improvements.

I wish I knew what that was refering to, and what it meant Edit: perhaps something Twitter related.

One of the replies had an interesting idea: This would also give an opportunity to encourage upgrade to FSD.

I was going to make exactly the same point, but with one addition. Apparently much of the size and complexity of a paint shop is the need to store the BIW between coats so that they can dry. The complexity is driven by the large size and complex shape, while the size is due to most of the BIW...

It is a long format tweet, so I'm reproducing here as it probably won't render inline properly. And WOW, lots of information in here: and the next tweet: And what has already been reported with above:

Perhaps it is a task finished. Sent about the time data review with NASA of the static fire might have been concluded.

He made a similar post on the 8th Feb Edit: perhaps nothing but a test of something new on Twitter, perhap a hidden message, maybe something to do with "stop", "full stop", "period" or "point".

If the production doubles every two years then the sum of production also doubles every two years (to a first approximation) consider sequence 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, ... , 2^n where n is the production after n periods of 2 years then sum( 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, ... , 2^n ) = 2^(n+1) -1 after two more years...

A couple of things stood out for me: "cathode is that it is made of molybdenum phosphide, which is abundant and inexpensive" - molybdenum is not that cheap, it is 3x the cost of Cobalt, or particularly abundant (less than 2x production of Cobalt). Apparently there in increased demand from the...

Perhaps I have not taken downside risk into account enough. However, the great thing about investing in TSLA is that Tesla is followed with a devotion unlike other companies (except possibly Apple). People literally count the number of cars coming off the production line, factory completion %...

Yes, I know what the "discount rate" is but what is the "actual discount rate"? As it varies from investor to investor, there is no one figure, also you confused the issue by bringing in the current share price, in 2019 the share price in 2023 is not known by investors so is irrelevant to what...

Mostly agree but: 1. PEG is a stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings for a specified time period (Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio: What It Is and the Formula) 2. There are good reasons to think that adoption of a new technology approximates to the...

The method I used is only very rough. It is quite possible that FSD and Robotaxi enter their middle portion of the S curve while vehicles and energy are still in the middle (50%/year) part. Similarly, Optimus could occur at the same time (or even slightly before) as Robotaxi. All this does is...

I am not sure what you are asking. Is there even such a thing as the "actual discount rate"? Does it not depend on many factors? Most people seem to use risk free return + a term for risk, in 2019 people were using 9% to 12%, recently I've seen 12% to 14% used by different people for discount...

A $1,000 price for TSLA can be discounted back to today. Assuming a conservative (high) discount rate of 12%, it would be $450 now. The current share price would be a discount rate of 25% There is an extreme disconnect between what people on this board think the share price will be in the...

First time I've come across GF Value. It agrees with my assessment of TSLA being slightly overvalued when it reached the ATH, but not by much (a better way of thinking about it is that TSLA got ahead of itself by a few months), and my current guess that the share price should be in the $400-600...

Better than I feared, worse than I hoped for. No mention of FSD in side deck.

Agree, worth the read. All in one via @Threadreaderapp https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1618056804461838336.html

"It takes more electricity to drive the average gasoline car 100 miles, than it does to drive an electric car 100 miles. If we simply count the electricity used to make the gasoline that gets burned in a normal vehicle, you need more juice than you do to move an EV the same distance. Of course...

$TSLA daily net purchases by retail investors (unsmoothed data).

"Behind Tesla's price adjustments, there’re countless engineering innovations, which are essentially unique & excellent cost control mechanisms, including but not limited to vehicle integration design, production line design, and supply chain management and even optimize the robot arm...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/03/uk-sets-new-record-for-turbine-power-generation-after-period-of-low-wind Lots more wind energy coming online in the next couple of years. To make full use of it and get to even higher percentages of usage the UK needs more storage. Edit: the...

Agree about Tesla, but I was talking about the total EV market, as was NicoV to whom I replied.

I think the mega-trend is going to be production limited. Most of Europe (because of incentives and taxes) and NA (because of IRA) and China (government direction) are biased heavily to EVs, and this bias looks like it will only increase. It looks like EVs have become more desirable than ICE...

I don't agree with these projections after 2027. There are two basic scenarios I think are likely: 1. Robotaxi (about half vehicle production is Robotaxi, they drive most of the miles) - total (all OEM) production peaks at 100m then falls back to about half, Tesla peaks at 20m in 2031 and then...

It looks like they are really pulling out all the stops to get deliveries from Fremont. "NEWS: New drone video from Tesla's Fremont factory tonight shows that for the first time ever Tesla has converted their south employee parking lot to accommodate hundreds of new Teslas for local delivery...

Looking at earnings call transcripts it looks like they use both 50% YoY and 50% average. However, the Q4 2019, Q1 2021 and latest guidance is clear that it is long term average growth. Q3 2022 earnings call "As we look ahead, our plans show that we're on track for the 50% annual growth in...

Looking at earnings call transcripts it looks like they use both 50% YoY and 50% average. However, the Q4 2019, Q1 2021 and latest guidance is clear that it is long term average growth. Q3 2022 earnings call "As we look ahead, our plans show that we're on track for the 50% annual growth in...

Latest guidance is an average of 50% over the next few years. So it has not changed. It looks like growth this year will be less than 50% YoY, but next year will be well above 50% YoY (if there is just Q4 annualised plus moderate growth from Berlin and Austin would give about 2.1 million about...

I can't speak for Tesla, but Elon replied by indicating that he approves.

Thread on 50% growth target, endorsed by Elon. This shows that contary to recent FUD Tesla are ahead of their 50% growth in vehicle deliveries.

Creyke Beck battery from the train. Control room at the back, substation back right, were 3 GW peak wind from the Hornsea and Dogger Bank wind farms will be delivered to National Grid.

We can test that easily, is every statement from Tesla or about Tesla from Elon taken up by the media and repeated. Take the tweet: which was retweeted by Elon. There have been exactly 3 mentions in the press, Clean Technica, Screen Rant and The Edge Markets, none of which would be classed as...

Didn't he also transfer $5B in shares to his charitable trust, doesn't that reduce his taxes?

I think that this is a pretty big hint that the NPV of Tesla (due to its future FCF) is much larger than the company value (market cap + debt - cash)