Buckminster
Well-Known Member
It'a pretty quiet on the forum. Quiet before the burn?
Come on Tesla!
Come on Tesla!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Menifeer
Member
I dodged a bullet on an options transaction in late September. I had sold a ton of pharmaceutical Amarin (AMRN) $3 Calls that expired Sep 21. The stock closed the Friday trading session at about $2.95 and the Calls expired worthless.
Monday morning before the open, the company announced favorable results from some drug trials. The stock jumped to about $12 that day. Had they announced the news after the close Friday, I'm sure the Calls would have been exercised. The stock is now trading at $20.
I was only too happy to skip past the 13 minutes of this random, raving lunatic with head phones over his hoodie...
I take that to mean that I am pre-generation Y.
But it was worth it to see Elon Musk in a good mood.
The main problem I see with the Consumer Reports non-recommendation is that they are ignoring the owner satisfaction. This is an overall rating that encompasses everything the owner knows about the car.
Rather than base the recommendation on the customer’s overall rating, CR parses a bunch of other ratings given by the customer and calculates a result weighing the criteria CR feels is most important and pop out with their rating. In effect they’re saying “Yeah we know you think this is the most satisfying (or best) car to own, but YOU don’t really know. WE know what criteria is most important so you need to pick this other car.”
Rather than base the recommendation on the customer’s overall rating, CR parses a bunch of other ratings given by the customer and calculates a result weighing the criteria CR feels is most important and pop out with their rating. In effect they’re saying “Yeah we know you think this is the most satisfying (or best) car to own, but YOU don’t really know. WE know what criteria is most important so you need to pick this other car.”
The CNCDA (California New Car Dealers Association) end of 2018 report just came out:
https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-18.pdf
Very good news WRT Tesla and EV's in general. All numbers are 2017 versus 2018 (highlights):
Nice graph as seen below:
https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-18.pdf
Very good news WRT Tesla and EV's in general. All numbers are 2017 versus 2018 (highlights):
- Light vehicle registrations down from 2.05 million to 2.00 million
- Hybrid (excluding plug-in) down from 93,338 to 82,352
- Plug-In Hybrid up from 45,040 to 62,846
- Pure Electric up from 53,500 to 94,813
- Tesla sales up from 19,598 to 70,338
- Tesla California market share went from 1.0% to 3.5%
Nice graph as seen below:
CR went Bill Cosby heel on us.
Irrelevant since the turn of the century due to the amount and ease of access to information.
Always had a nostalgic good will but showed their ineptness with how they handled this review.
Let’s be honest and get down to it:
If CR fails to influence sales and Model 3 continues to top the charts they need to eat *sugar*.
The consumers will have spoken.
So what do us EV consumers really care about?
No juice and stranded. Who has the MOAT in this area?
If I have but one regret, is that I have just one CR subscription to cancel and I canceled it before this debacle started.
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Maybe a lesson to just buy back before close and eat the couple of bucks rather than get burned. I’ll keep this in mind.
Fully charged tested the E-tron. Conclusion: Too heavy and too uninspired to drive with too short range. Love how the Audi spokesman try too answer the question of cars produced per year. It's at 21 minutes in the video. "Eeh uhm not 10k uhm only efficient if uhm maybe eeh 100k. Eeh uhm."
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Cheep knock-off of the original by P.M. Winston Churchill in 1942, responding to A.H.'s promise to "wring Britain's neck like a chicken":
"Some Chicken. Some Neck".
dhrivnak
Active Member
Yes sir!!! I think that is the night I bested three Corvettes, a Shelby Mustang and a Sport BMW.Just curious, is your roadster the same car seen here...?
SunCatcher
Member
Request: would someone with a Consumer Reports subscription (I know, many here have now cancelled) please take the time to look at the charts of the other car makers who have had their models dropped from the "recommended" list, and see/compare those charts to this one of the Tesla Model 3? What did it take for them to be dropped? A comparison like this could prove most revealing...
And while we're at it, let's compare a few charts of those who are still on the CR recommended list... how do their charts compare to the Model 3's?
Just the fact that there were others whose models were dropped from the "recommended" status, but Tesla Model 3 was the one that CR chose to highlight, makes this whole cheese stink to high heaven.
Thanks in advance to anyone willing/able to do this...
Fantastic, sounds like fun, but I have to ask - are you also entering races with your Volt?
As you know, racing cars pushes a car to extreme limits and certainly tests a car’s reliability. Is it fair to compare “issues and service calls” you have had with the Roadster race car vs the normal driving conditions of the Volt? Also, I don’t mean to be the bearer of bad news, but have you voided your Tesla warranty by putting it on the track?
OT
Taking your Tesla to the track is not modifying the vehicle at all. I fail to see how allowing the car to do what it was engineered to do would void the warranty. My local service center used to comment on how much they loved seeing my random videos that would show my car at the local drag track.
Tesla Model S Versus Ford Mustang GT500 - Drag Race Video
Of course, there are times when the family car at the track does not win...
I’m (on the older end of) Gen Y and I can’t stand pewdiepie either. Fortunately, the people who don’t like him won’t care and the people who do will come out liking Musk so, win win.
dhrivnak
Active Member
With the Volt I towed a 2000lb camper over the Rockies and to Banff and Jasper NP. To me THAT is pushing a car to its limits. The accerator pedal circuit happened before the races and the high voltage controller years after the races so I doubt they were related.Fantastic, sounds like fun, but I have to ask - are you also entering races with your Volt?
Musings about the Toronto International Auto Show.
TL;DR Feel really good about my Tesla investment. Not so good for the planet.
The Toronto International Auto Show is the largest auto show in Canada by some margin. I go every year to get out of the Tesla bubble (in which I live) to see how the 'future of sustainable transport' project is faring
If Tesla attends (they have not always) they get a smallish cheap booth in the 'exotics' section tucked in the basement. They had one of each of the three models on display...and that is about it. They are next to McLaren, Lamborghini and the rest. The Tesla booth is always packed which is encouraging. Many owners come down just to say 'hi'. The brand is very strong. Staff were enthusiastic and well engaged.
As for the rest of the show...
TL;DR Feel really good about my Tesla investment. Not so good for the planet.
The Toronto International Auto Show is the largest auto show in Canada by some margin. I go every year to get out of the Tesla bubble (in which I live) to see how the 'future of sustainable transport' project is faring
If Tesla attends (they have not always) they get a smallish cheap booth in the 'exotics' section tucked in the basement. They had one of each of the three models on display...and that is about it. They are next to McLaren, Lamborghini and the rest. The Tesla booth is always packed which is encouraging. Many owners come down just to say 'hi'. The brand is very strong. Staff were enthusiastic and well engaged.
As for the rest of the show...
- Every year I would say that Plug-in hybrids and EVs are moving increasingly from the backs of booths towards the front.
- You can tell how competitive this market is when you look at the money being spend on the booths. Astonishing. Glitz all over the place. Such effort to try and differentiate and tip the purchasing decision in their favour between quite similar products.
- EVs or 'green' is still not a focus (basically because they do not have much to sell). Fuel economy is not a focus.
- The exception was KIA. The focus of their booth was the Niro and over half their cars were either pure EVs or Plug in hybrids.
- Some brands have no electrification strategy at all that I could detect (certainly none on display) : Lincoln, Genesis, Mazda, Subaru, Infinity. These brands feel like dead men walking to me.
- I engaged with someone in every booth with the question "Tell me about your electrification strategy". Results were awful with the most common responses: "I don't know" or "we are working on it". Worst was a Subaru booth gremlin who said "We are working to perfect the internal combustion engine". Best was BMW who were able to articulate a vision.
- Sat in the E-pace (prominent at the front of the booth). Best Non-tesla EV yet...but so far behind IMO. I hope they sell tons of them (they had one available for test drives via the non-profit 'Plug and Drive' group).
- Toyota featured the hydrogen Mirai prominently. Facepalm. How this company lost its way from the Prius advantage will be the fodder of many future business school studies.
- 'Driving assist' systems are hyped but no talk of autonomous, even on the horizon.
- This show reminded me of two important things. EVs are still too expensive - simply out of the range of the mass of buyers. The majority of average buyers are still mostly clueless about EVs.
- For those of us investors who want Tesla to NOT be an 80% market leader of a 3% market but rather a 20% leader of a 50% EV car market the show was not particularly encouraging. We need to hit the steeper part of the S-curve soon - I am more confident we will do that.
- Battery cost and battery chemistry. As long as Tesla holds these 2 simultaneous leaderships they are simply unassailable. How can you complete? Seriously. You either price to lose money or give up performance (or both). This fact alone worries me for growth in the whole EV segment - how does any manufacturer today sit down and think I am going to complete against Tesla yet the core technology I have access to is more expensive and inferior at the outset.
- Connectivity. No other manufacturer STILL (Model S is 7 nearly years old!) has the same over-the-air updates/flexible UI/download-the-logs system that Tesla has. Baffles me.
- Autonomous. Others (GM aside) seem to be waiting to purchase a system that someone else develops. That strategy only works if you believe that huge amounts of data are not required to perfect the system. That is a very dangerous (existential threat) bet IMO.
- Innovation speed. Build into Tesla's very nature - how can you pass them?
- Supercharge network. This one can be overcome simply with money but until it is...
- I do not think they build cars (drive system apart) with the same cost efficiency at the big players. Does anyone have a $ units of manufacturing labour per car across the various manufacturers infographic? I wonder where Tesla would rank. If Tesla ever gets REALLY good at automotive manufacturing then, well, only the Chinese will be left... As much I disparage the traditional manufacturers SOMEONE has to build 70 million(?) or so vehicles a year.
Some photos from Toronto International Auto Show
Tesla Booth:
Toyota Murai (facepalm)
Kia Niro
Jaguar I Pace
Tesla Booth:
Toyota Murai (facepalm)
Kia Niro
Jaguar I Pace
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