Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeAtkinson]

 

[StealthP3D]

There you have it folks. Starting a Car company is easy. Elon is just a whinny baby. Guess his prediction of being successful of less than 10% chance is just being dramatic. And companies like Byton and Fisker were just an outlier.

I don't see the winky face or /s.

 

[RobStark]

Agree with the import tariffs, but stopping Tesla from building out more manufacturing in China hurts China's mercantilistic goals.

Allowing Tesla to build out as much manufacturing in China not only helps China import less oil, it also helps China export vehicles (Teslas) to other Asian countries.

Tesla's China division is even becoming something China can be proud of in a nationalistic way. Not only is it run entirely by Chinese people and does it employ thousands of Chinese, the Gigafactory Shanghai is also a statement to China's greatness (at least until Berlin and Austin do even better), and designing a vehicle locally in China at the upcoming R&D center will further add to this.

Not ruling out that China will be less cooperative with Tesla at some point in the future when their goals no longer align, but I don't think the scenario you describe is likely.



Here are a couple of EU smartphone markets:

UK: smartphone market share 2010-2018 | Statista.
View attachment 578075

Netherlands: smart phone market share by brands 2018 | Statista
View attachment 578074

Mobile Vendor Market Share Germany | StatCounter Global Stats
View attachment 578073

Unless smartphones are handled differently than vehicles, I don't see the EU necessarily stopping Tesla from reaching 40% or 50% EV market share.

Nationalist don't take pride in being the best most profitable colony.

China is allowing Tesla to own their own GF(s) to whip their own automakers into shape. So they will be forced to make BEVs compelling enough to export to first world markets. And to a lesser to degree to appear to be playing by global WTO rules.

Chinese BEVs will replace oil consumption just as well as a Tesla.

Smartphones are not cars. There are for more jobs attached. And far more national pride attached.

The combined influence of Germany-France-Italy inside the EU is far greater than the combined influence of Sweden-Finland.

 

[StealthP3D]

No. Don’t use the CARES act for investment. That’s not what it’s for. People are struggling enough with the system for the actual purpose of helping small business and not every Joe smoe who wants to make some quick and easy cash.

If a citizen is entitled to a check, that recipient should use it however it best serves them. If they don't need it for their immediate living expenses they should wisely decide where it could best be used. That might be bolstering their retirement nest egg by investing it in other companies.

 

[RobStark]

There you have it folks. Starting a Car company is easy. Elon is just a whinny baby. Guess his prediction of being successful of less than 10% chance is just being dramatic. And companies like Byton and Fisker were just an outlier.

Starting a BEV company in the US in 2003 probably did have a less than 10% chance of success.

No, launching a BEV company in 2020 has a far greater than 0 chance of success. In large part because of Tesla.

Not all of the startups will succeed. I would wager at least one American and one Chinese will succeed.

And Yes, Elon can be a Drama Queen. Tesla was not weeks away from insolvency and bankruptcy during Model 3 ramp. He could have easily picked up the phone and raised Billions without much difficulty.

 

[StealthP3D]

Chinese BEVs will replace oil consumption just as well as a Tesla.

Not really. Because the Chinese can't get enough quality EV's. All the good ones get sold as soon as they can make them. It's only the crappy EV's that might not sell right away. The bottom line is Chinese made electric cars and trucks can only replace ICE cars and trucks at the rate China can manufacture desirable EV's at good price points. This is why China invited Tesla to begin with. To have an expanding supply of EV's (especially semi's) that people actually want to buy (and can afford).

Allowing Tesla to expand within their borders as needed will most benefit China's continuing economic development (as well as accelerate on of China's key goals, the adoption of sustainable energies). I think you are taking the current "tiff" with China too seriously in the bigger picture. The man who continually escalated the trade war is likely out of office before Tesla wants to add another China factory (and China knows it). China will do what's best for China and they are just biding their time until the next US administration takes power and tries to normalize trade.

 

[EV forever]

The So, how do you interpret that Tweet?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1295964157204979712?s=21

 

[StealthP3D]

And Yes, Elon can be a Drama Queen.

Elon is not naturally a drama queen. What you may not realize is that Elon is working almost 24/7. If his eyes are open (and sometimes when they are not) he is thinking about his businesses and how he can increase the speed of the mission by reducing potential roadblocks such that everything comes together. He is not lucky, he creates his own luck by having an amazing ability to line up all the "Lego" in the correct pattern so when a project or a negotiation is approached, it's already set up for acceptance.

Part of doing this entails creating and planting narratives for maximum success. It's important to recall at what point in time Elon claimed they almost "died" (during the trying period immediately following that critical period). Yes, it's true Tesla had excellent access to all the capital they could have needed; it's also true that Elon ran the company close to bouncing checks. By accenting the problem of negative cash flow, he was able to further the mission. Sympathy goes a long way. It can also help keep sales robust during key points of growth. He's not dumb and the "drama queen" behavior you saw is simply Elon working at all times to make the mission more successful and also to subtly expose the cold-heartedness of the short-sellers who were very actively cheering for Tesla to fail (and even working towards that despicable goal).

There are many reasons Elon is extraordinarily effective, it's not an accident or good luck.

 

[StealthP3D]

The So, how do you interpret that Tweet?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1295964157204979712?s=21

View attachment 578088

Probably just celebratory in that they caught the $500,000 nose cone so they could reuse it on another launch. They want a 100% catch rate eventually. SpaceX takes recycling to a new (cost-efficient) level!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Last night there were two discussions about taxes. I’ve created a general thread about the tax consequences of trades and possible strategies, and moved those discussions there: Tax questions and strategies

Please discuss tax issues over there from now on. If there is enough activity in the new thread it may become a sticky.

 

[Tslynk67]

You just caused me a Delirium Tremens. I guess I should have went to a Delirium Nocturnium

In case you've no idea what this is about, Delerium is a Belgian brewery, Tremens being their most famous beer, along with some variations.

It's around 8.5% abv and if you drink enough of it, you start to see dancing pink elephants...

 

[UkNorthampton]

Because they are nationalist mercantilist and want Chinese automakers to dominate the global automotive market.

They don't give Tesla licenses to build more factories than say 10% market share. And they put 20-100% tariff on imported Teslas.

The EU is far more clever and mischievous as to how they go about this.

There are a bunch of "nondiscriminatory" regulations that could be applied.

There could be anti autonomous legislation that slows Tesla down to give European companies time to catch up. Elon said 10 years after Tesla achieves FSD then Level 5 autonomy will be a commodity.

The EU is a rules based organisation that plays fairer than most.

They won't allow unfair practices (Microsoft bundled browsers, harm to citizens (GDPR) nor huge mergers that create a designed monopoly but organic growth is fine. Can't see Tesla doing many mergers except with technology as focus, not market share.

I'd love to know Elon's views on America and other countries. I think he is genuinely thankful, likes and respects USA. However, Elon has connections to other countries and cultures.

With a future involving another planet, I can't see him putting all his eggs in one basket or being a complete USA cheerleader. He may be pan global in outlook and regional leaders recognise that in EU and China. Hence why local designers and factory engineering

 

[lascavarian]

GM and Ford can always do something about batteries... but they need to get moving on that.

I agree batteries are a hugh issue. Next hugh issue is their business model utilizing dealers.

They can never truly compete until they ditch their dealer model and how can that even happen. The dealer system gives the dealers too much influence and they will ride GM & Ford into the dirt rather than sacrifice themselves IMO.

 

[Tslynk67]

As per recent days, the same weird pre-pre-market behaviour, stuck on $1907 despite some "volume"

 

[lascavarian]

The So, how do you interpret that Tweet?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1295964157204979712?s=21

View attachment 578088

SpaceX has created a solution for the need for a space elevator. The commercialization of space now accelerates.

 

[lascavarian]

People are wondering if this new chip can be used for HW4 and Dojo... that makes more sense than designing a specific chip for Dojo only...

This is a little bit out there but I wonder if Dojo could be partly in orbit? Vehicles could have simple uplinks to feed data to orbit. A few Dojo birds amongst the StarLink satellites might be doable and provide global driving data at scale for analysis.

 

[FrankSG]

As per recent days, the same weird pre-pre-market behaviour, stuck on $1907 despite some "volume"

View attachment 578104

It only updates when there's a trade of 100 or more shares.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

I got so many strange looks so many times over the past 2-3 years when I would say with a straight face "Tesla's growth is being hidden....in 3-4 years times Tesla will be a trillion dollar company and at least 3 traditional Auto makers will have gone bankrupt before 2025"

They never made fun of me.....but I'm sure they thought I was in the looney bin. I don't plan to rub it in their face........but I will invite them out on my boat when I buy it next year. I'm thinking I'm going to name the boat "Doubters"

Edit: Btw I would definitely take suggestions for boat names if anyone has some good ones

Only mildly OT, but PLEASE make it one of these, or something similarly powered by the sun:

SILENT-YACHTS | Driven by Passion . Built with Solar Ingenuity

It defeats the purpose of Tesla's reason to exist if you buy a conventional, fossil fuel-swilling boat, no?

Thx.

 

[jerry33]

I
My guess of future world wide production volumes is something like:-

• Tesla 20%
• China 30%
• Germany 20%

Aren't you counting Tesla three times here?

 

[JBRR]

Panasonic to invest $100m in EV battery plant in US for Tesla

The investment will be made in Gigafactory 1, a battery plant in the U.S. state of Nevada with 13 production lines. Panasonic will add another line, increasing capacity by 10% to 39 gigawatt-hours per year.

------

Panasonic is also upgrading the batteries being produced at Gigafactory, raising each battery's storage capacity by 5%, starting in September.

------------

With annual production capacity set to exceed 1 million vehicles next year, the capacity for battery production is also likely to increase, Panasonic officials say.