Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

His hedge funds incredibly embarrassing rate of losses as Tesla has gone up certainly support his claims he shorts them.

(and why would he so loudly and consistently be pushing mountains of FUD nonsense if he wasn't?)




Most of the comments are pretty dubious about him being correct- pointing out the die size given the other info would be 10x larger than HW3.

Which seems the opposite of:




A process shrink and the die gets 10x larger? That doesn't make much sense in general (assuming they're not finding they need a TON more power to actually reach FSD which seems unlikely) and none at all in context of smaller or cheaper.

Basically this has already been addressed by a well informed poster on this forum:- Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

I was trying to say this earlier, you said it much more clearly. Basically a full motherboard chipset on a chip. They can improve performance and reduce power and cost. For dojo chips operating as part of a large parallel processor, this design would also seem to be much more effective.

But people seem to be confusing HW4 with Dojo... we don\'t know if Tesla is even designing custom chips for Dojo.

if you imagine that Tesla would somehow use the latest technology to design and build something worse than their current product,, you need to re-read this entire thread from the start.

 

[RobStark]

Agree with you on Tesla and China leading the way. The success of Chinese OEMs outside of China will be interesting to watch.

I know this is unpopular to say here, but GM and Ford aren't going away. The U.S. government won't let them fail. IMO, Tesla will become dominant in the U.S. followed by GM and Ford. Maybe GM and Ford merge.

It's popular here to root against and hate on GM and Ford but they simply aren't going away, nor should they. I love Tesla as much as anyone but a little brother (or two) at home wouldn't be so bad.

There is no desire in either major Party to bailout Detroit. Again.

It is more likely that VW buys Ford than GM and Ford merge.

The Feds would only let them merge after their is no antitrust concerns regarding full size truck and SUV market.

If it gets to the point where there is no antitrust concerns then Ford and GM are already finished.

 

[dw4ngg]

So, you capped your upside at 84% above today's price and you got paid 15% pre-tax on that risk for a year and a half. Your risk yields about 5% post-tax if you annualize it.
While I am sure seeing 300k hitting your checking account is nice, premiums on LEAPs are taxed as short-term income - 50% for you, I presume. So, unless you can offset short-term losses, I am not sure 150k post-tax is worth it given the current sentiment around the stock and upcoming events.

I'd close those calls. Advise.

Make the MMs hedge those calls.....

 

[RobStark]

20% market share for Tesla of the 2030 EV market would be pretty much my bear case at this point. I think double that is much more likely, with a decent possibility of a majority 50%+ market share.

Neither the EU nor the Chinese government will allow this.

 

[FrankSG]

Neither the EU nor the Chinese government will allow this.

Why not? And how would they do that?

 

[MC3OZ]

But people seem to be confusing HW4 with Dojo... we don\'t know if Tesla is even designing custom chips for Dojo.

Actually this is the quote I was looking for.

I think the key is SoW: System on Wafer. Rather than just the HW3 chip, this die will have both chips (4 NN cores), plus GPUs, Arm cores, flash and dynamic ram. Possibly also the video front ends.
Basically, they pull in all the high end ICs from the board to one wafer/ package. This reduces parts count, packaging costs, and board size while increasing theoretical bus speed and width. Downside is yeild impact due to die size (but that can be worked around with redundant circuits).
They can use the wafter as a substrate (nano PCB) and mount memory (or other) ICs to it with wirebond connections.
The Next Advanced Packages

People are wondering if this new chip can be used for HW4 and Dojo... that makes more sense than designing a specific chip for Dojo only...

 

[RobStark]

Why not? And how would they do that?

Because they are nationalist mercantilist and want Chinese automakers to dominate the global automotive market.

They don't give Tesla licenses to build more factories than say 10% market share. And they put 20-100% tariff on imported Teslas.

The EU is far more clever and mischievous as to how they go about this.

There are a bunch of "nondiscriminatory" regulations that could be applied.

There could be anti autonomous legislation that slows Tesla down to give European companies time to catch up. Elon said 10 years after Tesla achieves FSD then Level 5 autonomy will be a commodity.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Thank you for the heads up. Tesla does take that into account with their pricing. Due to the $5k NY discount and the local utility discount it does make it still cheaper for me to get more solar with the Powerwalls. My only hope is that when I go for it after battery day they'll be able to get it installed before the end of the year.


View attachment 578024View attachment 578028

I am getting solar installed on my house (not tesla as they don’t service that area). I started the process early this month, but it’ll not be completed until end of next.

I don’t think Tesla will be able to fulfill your order before battery day. If they did, the PW installed is probably the upgraded version (as Tesla does with new products). A third party may or may not have the upgraded ones, it’s doubtful with how in demand they are. And they probably won’t get them until the EOY.

So it doesn’t really matter to upgrade later: upgrade now, to lock in the 26%.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Job ending after 22 years do to Covid next month. Getting a severance package and paid for unused vacation time that could extend after the 39 week unemployment ends out to maybe almost another year. Already have 96 shares of TSLA at 400% gain. Its outperforming my 401k by miles. Completely debt free except for $2,000 on house and $1,800 for a OneWheel.
Would I be crazy to pull $100,000 out under the Cares Act to invest in TSLA. I know about the tax hit, but I miss out on the 10% penalty do to Covid and I pay tax on the rest over the next 3 years.
My thinking is it'll grow faster than my 401k, plus I have money in case *sugar* gets worse. I'd have upwards of 700+ shares of stock to fall back on.
I could start an IRA and max it the first year. Next year taxes would be less if I stay unemployed all year and milk the severance and vacation time money all I can.
Thoughts? Crazy things going thru my mind right now. 2020 just got about as bad as it can get for me now.

No. Don’t use the CARES act for investment. That’s not what it’s for. People are struggling enough with the system for the actual purpose of helping small business and not every Joe smoe who wants to make some quick and easy cash.

 

[RobStark]

BTW I would be shocked and giddy if Tesla ever gets past 10% market share in Japan.

So far this year Tesla has sold under 2k cars in Japan.

Japanese market is ~5M units per year where 40% are "kei cars" or ultra micro cars.

 

[Mo City]

20% market share for Tesla of the 2030 EV market would be pretty much my bear case at this point. I think double that is much more likely, with a decent possibility of a majority 50%+ market share.

What is your rough estimate of global EV production in 2030?

 

[Singuy]

And the new companies don't have to overcome the biggest hurdle of all; the idea in the minds of consumers that an EV can not replace an ICEv.

Tesla already settled that question.

Plus, Tesla built the Supercharger Network because no one else was willing to build a fast charging DC network.

Today there is an ever growing CCS network in North America/Europe and GB/T in China. Every new company doesn't have to build their own network.

Except that question is not yet settled by anyone except Tesla. And Tesla haven't fully addressed the issue(which they are on the cusp of succeeding) which is not can an EV replace an ICE, but can an EV that cost 25k replace an ICE that cost 25k and under(the true mass market). The charging networks you speak of is not enough for other auto makers, but maybe enough for Tesla since they have access to everything.

Elon said, the real way for new car companies to go bankrupt is the initial 5-8 years in which all of your cars are under warranty. Then you compound this to where to fix these cars? Would you dare to buy a Rivian/Lucid if the nearest repair center is no where? Tesla barely have enough, and this is a real issue that Elon is addressing as only service centers create the most demand according to him. These new car companies are dead man walking. EVs are terrible as a start up. They have infinitely higher chance starting an ICE company and succeeding as not only are there 3rd party infrastructure, but they never have to worry about batteries being the rate limiting step of production as Tesla is still facing. Too many people don't appreciate just how impossible Tesla actually succeeded. There were enough rich people willing to give Tesla a pass on service and no charging network, buying his 100k cars all due to loving his vision. Will it happen again with another company? What vision do these other companies have to gather such fandom and blinders?

 

[FrankSG]

Because they are nationalist mercantilist and want Chinese automakers to dominate the global automotive market.

They don't give Tesla licenses to build more factories than say 10% market share. And they put 20-100% tariff on imported Teslas.

Agree with the import tariffs, but stopping Tesla from building out more manufacturing in China hurts China's mercantilistic goals.

Allowing Tesla to build out as much manufacturing in China not only helps China import less oil, it also helps China export vehicles (Teslas) to other Asian countries.

Tesla's China division is even becoming something China can be proud of in a nationalistic way. Not only is it run entirely by Chinese people and does it employ thousands of Chinese, the Gigafactory Shanghai is also a statement to China's greatness (at least until Berlin and Austin do even better), and designing a vehicle locally in China at the upcoming R&D center will further add to this.

Not ruling out that China will be less cooperative with Tesla at some point in the future when their goals no longer align, but I don't think the scenario you describe is likely.

The EU is far more clever and mischievous as to how they go about this.

There are a bunch of "nondiscriminatory" regulations that could be applied.

There could be anti autonomous legislation that slows Tesla down to give European companies time to catch up. Elon said 10 years after Tesla achieves FSD then Level 5 autonomy will be a commodity.

Here are a couple of EU smartphone markets:

UK: smartphone market share 2010-2018 | Statista.

Netherlands: smart phone market share by brands 2018 | Statista

Mobile Vendor Market Share Germany | StatCounter Global Stats

Unless smartphones are handled differently than vehicles, I don't see the EU necessarily stopping Tesla from reaching 40% or 50% EV market share.

 

[Singuy]

Because they are nationalist mercantilist and want Chinese automakers to dominate the global automotive market.

They don't give Tesla licenses to build more factories than say 10% market share. And they put 20-100% tariff on imported Teslas.

The EU is far more clever and mischievous as to how they go about this.

There are a bunch of "nondiscriminatory" regulations that could be applied.

There could be anti autonomous legislation that slows Tesla down to give European companies time to catch up. Elon said 10 years after Tesla achieves FSD then Level 5 autonomy will be a commodity.

Don't be so sure about that. The Chinese government carters to Elon as they are not stupid. Elon holds the higher percentage of top engineers in the world. Elon is also a straight shooter, and will pull out and build Tesla on a drone ship in International waters next to China because that's the type of crazy nut he is if he gets angry. The government sees great value in Elon and the ship he commands as a way to be on par with the U.S technology wise. If you think China is going to lose Elon for a bunch of stupid home made EV eco boxes, you are greatly mistaken. Also I don't even know what you are talking about in the first place as Mercedes/Audi/and BMW holds like 90% marketshare of the luxury ICE market. You don't see China shutting the Germans down to promote their own shitty cars.

 

[FrankSG]

What is your rough estimate of global EV production in 2030?

I've thought about a 100% AEV market, in which case I think global yearly production might be around 50M vehicles.

2030 is a lot harder to predict, because it'll depend a lot on what the rest of the industry does. Maybe it's more accurate to call 20% for Tesla the most bearish of bearish predictions I can think of, because I have a hard time seeing Tesla do less than 10M in 2030, and I'd be shocked if the rest of the industry does a combined 40M.

Rob Maurer recently stated in his presentation to Master's students that the automotive industry combined has plans to sell 80M vehicles from now until 2030. That's unlikely to lead to annual production of anywhere close to 40M in 2030, and they could also very well fall short of these targets.

More likely, I think Tesla will do ~15M in 2030, perhaps as much as 20M, and the rest of the industry combined might do a similar number, giving Tesla ~50% or slightly less than 50% market share.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Just say "thank you" for the large contingent of people that don't get it; they're providing you with your information advantage for investing in TSLA.

Or sadly, they're helping perpetuate our mine and burn energy economy because they don't understand, but at least there's that silver lining around our investment.

Oh all the wannabes are just after Tesla's market cap. I would say Nio and Lucid are serious, the rest are nothing but a bunch of dog coins.

Anyways, the best chance for an EV competitor against Tesla is from the Legacy. These new start ups including Nio/Lucid will fail. Tesla faced bankruptcy 3 times and this is with zero EV competition and his cultish fans gave Tesla a lot of good will. Nio and Lucid will soon find that Tesla will just absolutely crush them because it's the ecosystem that determines the life or death of the company, and EVs are at a massive disadvantage when it comes to the support system that ICE cars enjoy (gas stations, 3rd party repair shops) and yet hundreds of ICE companies ended up in the graveyard this past century anyways.

Elon said himself he though Tesla and SpaceX had less than 5% of surviving.

They are unicorns

 

[RobStark]

Except that question is not yet settled by anyone except Tesla. And Tesla haven't fully addressed the issue(which they are on the cusp of succeeding) which is not can an EV replace an ICE, but can an EV that cost 25k replace an ICE that cost 25k and under(the true mass market). The charging networks you speak of is not enough for other auto makers, but maybe enough for Tesla since they have access to everything.

Elon said, the real way for new car companies to go bankrupt is the initial 5-8 years in which all of your cars are under warranty. Then you compound this to where to fix these cars? Would you dare to buy a Rivian/Lucid if the nearest repair center is no where? Tesla barely have enough, and this is a real issue that Elon is addressing as only service centers create the most demand according to him. These new car companies are dead man walking. EVs are terrible as a start up. They have infinitely higher chance starting an ICE company and succeeding as not only are there 3rd party infrastructure, but they never have to worry about batteries being the rate limiting step of production as Tesla is still facing. Too many people don't appreciate just how impossible Tesla actually succeeded. There were enough rich people willing to give Tesla a pass on service and no charging network, buying his 100k cars all due to loving his vision. Will it happen again with another company? What vision do these other companies have to gather such fandom and blinders?

Are you an ICEv proponent? LOL

The Replacement Question has been answered. That is why consumers are buying non-Tesla EVs as their only car.

The Charging Network Question is being answered as we speak. It is good enough for consumers to buy non Tesla EVs in ever growing numbers world wide. The percentage of people that find the current CCS/GB/T network sufficient will grow as those networks grow.

There is not enough battery supply for GM,Toyota,and/or VW to transition quickly. There is enough battery supply to launch Rivian,Lucid,et al. And the battery supply will grow with them. Every couple of months we here financing/plans for more non Tesla Battery GFs.England,Sweden,Germany, France, Ohio. Seeing Canoo and Lordstown Motors raise ~$700M each it is silly to suggest Rivian or Lucid are capital constrained. Especially Rivian backed by Bezos/Amazon.

No EV startup needs to have a successful $25k BEV today or tomorrow to be successful.

No EV startup needs a nationwide distribution and service network tomorrow to be successful. They will start in EV rich Metro Areas and grow from their as production grows. It is pretty easy to find where Tesla has the most registrations and put stores/service centers there. These are the areas most likely wanting alternatives to Tesla because "everybody has a Tesla!"

There are already a handful of shops that rebuild battery packs for Hybrids and BEVs. There are already a handful of shops that offer rather complete BEV repair services. They will only grow in the coming years.

 

[FrankSG]

Frankfurt open:

 

[Singuy]

Are you an ICEv proponent? LOL

The Replacement Question has been answered. That is why consumers are buying non-Tesla EVs as their only car.

The Charging Network Question is being answered as we speak. It is good enough for consumers to buy non Tesla EVs in ever growing numbers world wide. The percentage of people that find the current CCS/GB/T network sufficient will grow as those networks grow.

There is not enough battery supply for GM,Toyota,and/or VW to transition quickly. There is enough battery supply to launch Rivian,Lucid,et al. And the battery supply will grow with them. Every couple of months we here financing/plans for more non Tesla Battery GFs.England,Sweden,Germany, France, Ohio. Seeing Canoo and Lordstown Motors raise ~$700M each it is silly to suggest Rivian or Lucid are capital constrained. Especially Rivian backed by Bezos/Amazon.

No EV startup needs to have a successful $25k BEV today or tomorrow to be successful.

No EV startup needs a nationwide distribution and service network tomorrow to be successful. They will start in EV rich Metro Areas and grow from their as production grows. It is pretty easy to find where Tesla has the most registrations and put stores/service centers there. These are the areas most likely wanting alternatives to Tesla because "everybody has a Tesla!"

There are already a handful of shops that rebuild battery packs for Hybrids and BEVs. There are already a handful of shops that offer rather complete BEV repair services. They will only grow in the coming years.

There you have it folks. Starting a Car company is easy. Elon is just a whinny baby. Guess his prediction of being successful of less than 10% chance is just being dramatic. And companies like Byton and Fisker were just an outlier.

 

[StealthP3D]

Because they are nationalist mercantilist and want Chinese automakers to dominate the global automotive market.

They don't give Tesla licenses to build more factories than say 10% market share. And they put 20-100% tariff on imported Teslas.

The EU is far more clever and mischievous as to how they go about this.

There are a bunch of "nondiscriminatory" regulations that could be applied.

There could be anti autonomous legislation that slows Tesla down to give European companies time to catch up. Elon said 10 years after Tesla achieves FSD then Level 5 autonomy will be a commodity.

I don't see the EU capping Tesla factories to 10% market share. It would violate trade norms and cause reciprocal retaliatory measures from the U.S.

Perhaps more importantly, there is great awareness that AGW is a real thing and fossil fuels cause a major portion of it - this awareness is much stronger through most of Europe than in the US. Almost every year the heatwaves get worse, draught, flooding, sea-level rise threatens cities, etc. Those in power throughout Europe are mostly on board in realizing the speed of transition is important to human security (for so many reasons it's not funny, economics, cost of healthcare, pollution in urban areas, damage to historic buildings and statues, etc.), the need to transition away from fossil fuels is time-sensitive. If Tesla wants to buy land for another EV/battery factory and create local jobs building and running it, enlarging the tax base, and pumping out quiet, zero-emission cars and trucks (and probably offering high-quality, low-cost batteries to other local EV makers and energy projects), I don't see that being stopped. A 10% market share cap would make them look utterly ridiculous , slow down the transition to sustainable energies and be bad for their economy and future)!