Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

While I'm inclined to believe the buying is authentic buyers because the large blocks instead of a steady stream of small blocks, The MM's could always ride that buying volume to the upside and then push it back down tomorrow. That would be playing with fire though because say some sort of news does come out tomorrow or a fund randomly decides that they're going to start accumulating....it's only a 3% gain from this level to break 850, which I think someone pointed out would be the worst case money wise for the MM's.

850 is where the serious pain begins for option sellers. It gets really bad above 900. order of magnitude - 150M turns into 1B at the 1000 strike (this week). The 850 share price though is only "200M" vs. 117M at max pain (800) (using the data published today from yesterday). Tomorrow's data can and will change all this based on activity today.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - midday: New Investors Pile In, Fuel Record Rise In Account Openings, Trading Volumes

Excerpt:

Trends revealed that Millennials’ top 10 holdings were unchanged from the previous quarter, with securities like Tesla Inc, Amazon.com and Netflix Inc insulating portfolios from broad market weakness.

 

[pz1975]

At close, Toyota still in the lead at $162B vs $153B, but the gap closed a relative 3% today. Two more days like today is all it would take.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

At close, Toyota still in the lead at $162B vs $153B, but the gap closed a relative 3% today. Two more days like today is all it would take.

Time to make a bet about the year that Tesla will be worth more than all other listed OEMs combined. I’m going for 2027.

 

[Todd Burch]

Elon's not charging enough for Cybertruck...
Brabus launches a £440,000 armoured Mercedes G-Wagen | Daily Mail Online

And people complain about Tesla's paint...That's a lot of orange peel for 440k pounds!

 

[bpjod]

Today was a good day. Long overdue.

I started acquiring TSLA in 2017, buying the dips whenever I had the cash. I have never sold a share and my eyes glaze over when I read about options, calls, puts and whatever. My last buy was Jan 3/20 at $404 as I thought the stock was taking off. Since then I've not bought, at first because of a lack of free cash and needing time for my brain to adjust to the new price range. Then I was forced to shut down my business on March 17th and the financial uncertainty of the future for both my business and personal finances made me sit on the sidelines and miss the TSLA COVID dip, much to my dismay, but I don't believe in tying up cash I might need in the next year or so.

On May 4th my business re-opened and it still had good cash reserves, only about 1/4 depleted. Since opening it's been production constrained - limited only by the extra COVID procedures and precautions. Then this morning, while enjoying my morning coffee I noticed my tax return came in. On a whim I put it in my investment account as it wasn't money I was counting on needing any time soon. I did the math and determined I could pick up 13 shares (plus pay the $9.99 fee) at $799.55, so I put in my order. The market had just opened and TSLA was at about $815 at the time so I didn't expect it to hit. Off to work I went. I just checked now and found out my order filled and it seems I caught today's dip. Nice!

I'm confident that so many good things are going to happen for Tesla in the next 1-2 years (and who knows what after that!) that eventually everyone will sit up and take notice and that has to mean good things for TSLA. COVID-19 will shake money out of many companies that can't adapt and that money will be looking for companies with a promising future. TSLA has to be one of those companies. It feels good to be back in the game.

Okay. My break's over, back to work! Cheers everyone!

 

[Lessmog]

Google Maps

Someone edited google maps to show the Hutto location as "Tesla Terra Factory."

Who, with the Tesla love to actually make this point, would get the name wrong?

Yes indeed! Tesla Terra Factories are already in the plural.
Now, what would be very interesting is the location of Tesla [other celestial body] Factory.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

850 is where the serious pain begins for option sellers. It gets really bad above 900. order of magnitude - 150M turns into 1B at the 1000 strike (this week). The 850 share price though is only "200M" vs. 117M at max pain (800) (using the data published today from yesterday). Tomorrow's data can and will change all this based on activity today.

The super low volume this week and inability of anyone to push down SP makes me quite bullish for the $1k+ breakout. CV19 lockdown easing and Battery Day should do it, therefore the mere specter of that might push us that high before Battery Day even hits. Buy the rumor behavior has been quite popular with all these option-centric traders.

 

[Green Pete]

What's interesting to me that hasn't been mentioned in a long time is that before covid tore the world apart Trump said a number of things about supporting musk and such that hinted at US government support for bringing on new factory/ies but that there has seemed to have been no mention for quite some time.

 

[Krugerrand]

19 June 19 830 CALLS I bought this morning.
Hope it pays out.

I have no idea what that means. I literally block out all options talk as if it’s a lecture on how to basket weave.

I’ve decided now that I might want to make a basket and this seems like a good time for step one.

So you bought 19 contracts with an expiration of June 19, 2020. At which point the SP needs to be $830+the individual contract price you paid to expire worthless?

Am I close? Or way out to lunch and should just go buy a basket on Amazon?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Jay Leno's Garage teases a new video (alt. CNBC Prime | Youtube)

"In this episode, Jay Leno takes a trip to Tesla's headquarters to meet up with Elon Musk. The maverick tech-entrepreneur has a surprise for Jay! Catch the sneak peek and don't miss an all new episode of "Jay Leno's Garage" Wednesday at 10P ET on CNBC." (Ed. note: Wed, May 27, 2020)​

Elon Musk has a surprise for Jay Leno

Cheers!

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

At close, Toyota still in the lead at $162B vs $153B, but the gap closed a relative 3% today. Two more days like today is all it would take.

This is incorrect. I don’t know why people keep posting this....

Edit: It seems several sites (Bloomberg, Google, Marketwatch) post ~$190B while others post $162B. I looked up the number of outstanding shares which is at 1.4B. Multiplied by today’ closing price of 117.95 and it is indeed $162B. My apologies.

 

[HG Wells]

I have no idea what that means. I literally block out all options talk as if it’s a lecture on how to basket weave.

I’ve decided now that I might want to make a basket and this seems like a good time for step one.

So you bought 19 contracts with an expiration of June 19, 2020. At which point the SP needs to be $830+the individual contract price you paid to expire worthless?

Am I close? Or way out to lunch and should just go buy a basket on Amazon?

Correct. Would need to hit 873 if held to experation. Paid 43, so 830 + 43 = 873
Note: At close today they had gone up to 59.
But I will sell them wednesday or thursday before the time value gets too low.

 

[woodisgood]

So you bought 19 contracts with an expiration of June 19, 2020. At which point the SP needs to be $830+the individual contract price you paid to expire worthless?

Yes, but an important aspect of options is the basket does not need to be woven to completion.

Stock price moves, options price moves but with greater amplitude. A move of 5% may translate to options contracts moving perhaps 20% or more depending on the expiry and strike price. You can sell any time. The value of the contracts will decay the closer you get to expiry, to the point they are worthless unless over strike price. If Tesla shoots up to even 850 tomorrow, HG could sell those options for a ~20-40% gain.

 

[Runarbt]

I have no idea what that means. I literally block out all options talk as if it’s a lecture on how to basket weave.

I’ve decided now that I might want to make a basket and this seems like a good time for step one.

So you bought 19 contracts with an expiration of June 19, 2020. At which point the SP needs to be $830+the individual contract price you paid to expire worthless?

Am I close? Or way out to lunch and should just go buy a basket on Amazon?

close..

830.01 and he has $19 worth of options. (1×19x100 cents- as one option is for 100 shares)

Anything above 830 is ITM (in the money), but he will need a lot higher to make money, as the option has "time cost/premium", what he paid for them..

However, if he doest have 19x830x100 dollars (u do the math to exercise the call options, he need to sell before expiry.

 

[Tim S]

This is incorrect. I don’t know why people keep posting this.....
View attachment 543661

Yahoo Finance says TM market cap is $162B. Google says $191B. I don't know why they are different.

They both say $153B for TSLA.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

close..

830.01 and he has $19 worth of options. (1×19x100 cents- as one option is for 100 shares)

Anything above 830 is ITM (in the money), but he will need a lot higher to make money, as the option has "time cost/premium", what he paid for them..

However, if he doest have 19x830x100 dollars (u do the math to exercise the call options, he need to sell before expiry.

Why does it need to be higher than 830 for him to make money? He paid $81,700 for those contracts and they are now worth $112,100. He can sell them at any moment during market hours.

@HG Wells' timing was perfect. Still, I personally don't like buying options, as time is usually your enemy. You can predict the way the stock moves and still lose money if it doesn't happen fast enough. I prefer selling options as time is on my side. On Tuesday I sold a put 800 with expiry 19 June and today when the stock was at the same price as Tuesday I could have already bought it back 10% cheaper. The lower volatilty is also helping.

 

[Green Pete]

We know the Model 3/Y battery packs aren't designed for easy swapping like the S/X so be careful when making assumptions.

wait is this true? I was under the impression module swapping was possible on all teslas.

edit: no. batteries are the 3 are swappable. its not like batteries in a flashlight but its not impossible.

Elon Musk makes incredible claims about Tesla Model 3 longevity, will offer battery module replacement - Electrek

 

[MP3Mike]

This is incorrect. I don’t know why people keep posting this.....
View attachment 543661

Well, why do you think Google is correct, and everyone else is wrong?

Morning Star even says $163B

Edit: As far as I can tell the difference is in where they get their outstanding share count from. Google uses total shares, including treasury stock, while Yahoo, Morningstar, etc. do not include treasury stock.

In looking at Toyota's financial reports, they don't include the treasury stock count when calculating their per share net income, etc. So I am going to go with Google is wrong and Yahoo is correct.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Well, why do you think Google is correct, and everyone else is wrong?

Morning Star even says $163B

View attachment 543671

Everyone else?

Edit: It seems several sites (Bloomberg, Google, Marketwatch) post ~$190B while others post $162B. I looked up the number of outstanding shares which is at 1.4B. Multiplied by today’ closing price of 117.95 and it is indeed $162B. My apologies.