Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I’m doing buy and hold because I don’t want to miss out when TSLA inevitably gaps up out of the 300’s, not because of the simplicity, and I assume many others are as well.

But there's many ways to swing trade while keeping 70-90% of assets in a long term TSLA position, to guarantee that 70-90% of the upside is caught even if the swing trading leg hits a worst-case outcome during a big rally.

Furthermore, the really aggressive options swing traders can also catch 1000%+ of the upside, should a breakout happen - without using margin.

 

[samppa]

With Tesla, there are also investors that invest because they believe that ev revolution is of utmost importance to our future.
Maybe not so many, but I would bet there are some who don't care about profits so much. I for one am one. If stock goes skyhigh, I'm happy. If not, I've invested in what I believed in. Meanwhile I'm accumulating more stock.

I can't be bullied with. I can't be bargained with. I want to see Tesla succeed in their mission.

And for all the OEMs and shorts.

 

[KarenRei]

Well, this clears up why the Rivian factory was empty and why they're still hand-building trucks in a one-off manner:

Rivian's Manufacturing Chief Reveals Some Details About the New Plant - The Next Avenue

• So far, all they've been doing is demolition work
• They have to reengineer the entire plant, as it was designed for smaller vehicles
• They hope to start tooling in December or January
• They hope to ramp up production-hiring in 6-8 months.

So, that's the explanation and the schedule.

• Colour me skeptical that a company that's never mass produced a car before will go from demolition to mass production in half a year. Please prove me wrong though, Rivian! )
• Wait... didn't they buy their "near production ready" factory two years ago? And they're still doing demolition? Even if money was limiting that, didn't they raise $700M in February? Then another $500M in April? What have they been doing all this time?
• Okay, now colour me very skeptical that they can tool and go into production in half a year.

 

[Fact Checking]

FYI, the year ends in just 2.5 months - and most of the speculation here is about potential Model Y deliveries starting in Q1 already - two quarters ahead of the "Q3 2020" guidance.

FYI, not addressing that craziness.

What craziness? CleanTechnica just reported, based on two independent sources, that Model Y production and deliveries will probably begin in Q1:

Breaking! Tesla Model Y Production To Start In Q1 2020 (Unofficial Leak) | CleanTechnica​

 

[StealthP3D]

Disagree (respectfully because I agree with 99.9% of your posts). I’m doing buy and hold because I don’t want to miss out when TSLA inevitably gaps up out of the 300’s, not because of the simplicity, and I assume many others are as well.

Exactly! I've watched too many stocks get away from me to ever want to swing trade again. Yes, I can make consistent profits by swing trading but it's a lot of work and stress and time. It's a rare person that ever becomes wealthy through swing trading. The same cannot be said for the better strategy of buy and hold. There are literally millions of "buy and hold" millionaires. That's not to say that I wouldn't sell my Tesla shares today for $1200 if it gapped up. But no way am I selling them for only $300-$400. I know myself well enough to know that if I sold it because I thought it was "topping out", but then it gapped up, I'm not going to have the guts to buy it back at 40% higher prices.

Take a stock like Amazon or Apple that generated 30%+ annual returns. My intuition is that 90%+ of those who were swing trading early, missed out later and did not beat 30%. I.e. 30% is an unbelievable return. Getting better than 30% by jumping in and out has to be an extremely rare event.

I'm sure a number of swing traders did better than 30% on Amazon but the buy and hold crowd are the ones who became wealthy. I never bought AMZN because it was always too expensive for what I thought they had. How wrong I was (hindsight is 20/20). Tesla is in a different industry but very much the same kind of stock. The thing is, AMZN did not have a powerful, wealthy and evil consortium of mom and pop, brick and mortar retailers teaming up against them to spread fear uncertainty and doubt. And I STILL thought they were over-priced! Dang! I could be worth over $200 million by now if I had only put a reasonable portion of my investable assets into AMZN in 2002!

 

[FreqFlyer]

Well, this clears up why the Rivian factory was empty and why they're still hand-building trucks in a one-off manner:

Rivian's Manufacturing Chief Reveals Some Details About the New Plant - The Next Avenue

• So far, all they've been doing is demolition work
• They have to reengineer the entire plant, as it was designed for smaller vehicles
• They hope to start tooling in December or January
• They hope to ramp up production-hiring in 6-8 months.

So, that's the explanation and the schedule.

• Colour me skeptical that a company that's never mass produced a car before will go from demolition to mass production in half a year. Please prove me wrong though, Rivian! )
• Wait... didn't they buy their "near production ready" factory two years ago? And they're still doing demolition? Even if money was limiting that, didn't they raise $700M in February? Then another $500M in April? What have they been doing all this time?
• Okay, now colour me very skeptical that they can tool and go into production in half a year.

With Ford in their corner and a bunch of veteran car guys in management, I think they will figure out how to tool a Factory and get production up and running. Will it be smooth, no, but they will figure it out.

 

[Unpilot]

I thought 258 was some sort of tech cap...it seems like 260 has a harder ceiling.

 

[Fact Checking]

Lol, good way to tip the car over with a high mounted nozzle, wot?

Those are transponders for a data link to the race team back at the pits. Production Plaid Model S cars won't have those.
Cheers!

If it's antennae then why are they tall? Rooftop antennas are usually flat, to reduce drag - radio waves will propagate from a flat antenna just fine.

 

[kbM3]

But there's many ways to swing trade while keeping 70-90% of assets in a long term TSLA position, to guarantee that 70-90% of the upside is caught even if the swing trading leg hits a worst-case outcome during a big rally.

Furthermore, the really aggressive options swing traders can also catch 1000%+ of the upside, should a breakout happen - without using margin.

Would love to take to a new thread and debate.

My argument in your example would be that you will be at 70% when it gaps up, rather than 90%, so you would only win if you swing traded successfully several times prior to the gap up.

I agree swing trading paid off handsomely these past few years with Tesla, but that depended on Tesla messing up initial Model 3 ramp, SX demand falling, Elon’s SEC trouble, market’s inability to understand Tesla’s true value..., none of which were foreseeable.

 

[AlexS]

So much anecdotal evidence of an impending launch of the Model Y. It's amazing the stock isn't moving today off of the multiple pieces of news about Model Y last night and then today. Doesn't matter if it's up 10% over the past week.....a Q1 launch of Model Y high end trims would be just huge.

Hard to believe there won't be fireworks on the Q3 earnings call.

MSM is not reporting any of these news. And when everybody is awaiting fireworks from both sides, usually the surprise is that stock stays flat after earnings.

 

[StealthP3D]

But there's many ways to swing trade while keeping 70-90% of assets in a long term TSLA position, to guarantee that 70-90% of the upside is caught even if the swing trading leg hits a worst-case outcome during a big rally.

I see this argument for using a portion of your investment to trade in/out of said investment. But it never holds up to scrutiny. If the investment is so good, just put your swing trading money in there too. That way you don't have to settle for only capturing 70-90% of the capital appreciation when it really pops.

Or maybe you're worried that the stock won't go anywhere, that it'll just bounce up/down forever without really appreciating. Then I would suggest you're in the wrong investment or you have too much in an investment that is too speculative by your own analysis. In that case, take the money you have allocated to swing trading and put it into another stock. Or start a small business. But swing trading a company you believe to be a good long-term buy and hold just doesn't make a lot of sense. Particularly when you account for all the time and effort it takes. How much is your time worth?

 

[Unpilot]

How much is your time worth?

Not much it seems with how much time I spend on this forum!

 

[StealthP3D]

With Ford in their corner and a bunch of veteran car guys in management, I think they will figure out how to tool a Factory and get production up and running. Will it be smooth, no, but they will figure it out.

I hate to break it to you but having Ford embedded on Rivian's BoD might actually be a net negative. It's a conflict of interest for sure. I'm sure Ford will keep the execs and other board members happy and in the money but why would they help accelerate a product that could gut their most profitable sales, ie. ICE trucks and SUVs? It's a multi-billion dollar business.

 

[macman]

What craziness? CleanTechnica just reported, based on two independent sources, that Model Y production and deliveries will probably begin in Q1:

Breaking! Tesla Model Y Production To Start In Q1 2020 (Unofficial Leak) | CleanTechnica​

Make sense if true. Q1 normally has a lighter sales because of seasonality and the federal tax credit will be totally phased out.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

If this 1Q production rumor is true and 3Q call guidance is strong AND the Donald decides to put out this fire he started.......lord only knows where this SP ends up.

 

[AlexS]

What craziness? CleanTechnica just reported, based on two independent sources, that Model Y production and deliveries will probably begin in Q1:

Breaking! Tesla Model Y Production To Start In Q1 2020 (Unofficial Leak) | CleanTechnica​

Maybe in best case scenario they will make a production line test run in the end of Q1, but deliveries will not start in Q1. end of Q2 seems possible maybe.

 

[jerry33]

If it's antennae then why are they tall? Rooftop antennas are usually flat, to reduce drag - radio waves will propagate from a flat antenna just fine.

I thought those were the ludicrous downforce thrusters.

 

[Fact Checking]

Would love to take to a new thread and debate.

My argument in your example would be that you will be at 70% when it gaps up, rather than 90%, so you would only win if you swing traded successfully several times prior to the gap up.

I agree swing trading paid off handsomely these past few years with Tesla, but that depended on Tesla messing up initial Model 3 ramp, SX demand falling, Elon’s SEC trouble, market’s inability to understand Tesla’s true value..., none of which were foreseeable.

My point is that with really aggressive swing trading there's a good chance to capture 100% of the upside with 70% of your TSLA assets, and a 1000%+ upside with 30% of your assets- which is a combined 400% upside if the final swing-up leg is timed well.

If it's not timed well it's only a 70% upside.

But if you only have a 50% chance to hit the up-leg, there's still probability adjusted returns of 235% upside.

The swing trading part while TSLA is range bound isn't primarily to generate returns (you are right that they are peanuts in the long run), but to finance the options leveraged-breakout scenario in a self-sustaining fashion. (Lost Theta has to be financed constantly.)

Not a simple strategy, but entirely valid.

(And then there are even crazier lottery tickets, should TSLA hit $500+.)

My point: buy-and-hold isn't the only hyper-bull strategy, but it's certainly the simplest, most robust one, which allows you to follow the fundamentals and ignore the short term noise.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I hate to break it to you but having Ford embedded on Rivian's BoD might actually be a net negative. It's a conflict of interest for sure. I'm sure Ford will keep the execs and other board members happy and in the money but why would they help accelerate a product that could gut their most profitable sales, ie. ICE trucks and SUVs? It's a multi-billion dollar business.

Not really, Ford is not getting the truck from Rivian but a version of the CUV. Same Skateboard but totally different market. Ford has been testing its own EV version of the F150 for a while now.

 

[Causalien]

Exactly! I've watched too many stocks get away from me to ever want to swing trade again. Yes, I can make consistent profits by swing trading but it's a lot of work and stress and time. It's a rare person that ever becomes wealthy through swing trading. The same cannot be said for the better strategy of buy and hold. There are literally millions of "buy and hold" millionaires. That's not to say that I wouldn't sell my Tesla shares today for $1200 if it gapped up. But no way am I selling them for only $300-$400. I know myself well enough to know that if I sold it because I thought it was "topping out", but then it gapped up, I'm not going to have the guts to buy it back at 40% higher prices.



I'm sure a number of swing traders did better than 30% on Amazon but the buy and hold crowd are the ones who became wealthy. I never bought AMZN because it was always too expensive for what I thought they had. How wrong I was (hindsight is 20/20). Tesla is in a different industry but very much the same kind of stock. The thing is, AMZN did not have a powerful, wealthy and evil consortium of mom and pop, brick and mortar retailers teaming up against them to spread fear uncertainty and doubt. And I STILL thought they were over-priced! Dang! I could be worth over $200 million by now if I had only put a reasonable portion of my investable assets into AMZN in 2002!

Yes, the longer the stock is artificially surpressed, the more violent the correction.

I'd only swing trade with options and not with stock. And by swing trade I mean selling cash covered puts when timing is right. Still, these are peanuts compared to the core stock holding, but has the added benefit of accumulating more stock if I bet the timing wrong.

At this point, the tesla to 0 crowd is 99% wrong. Tesla has successfully diversified its manufacturing base, so one of my biggest worries "The big one" hitting the west coast is mitigated. Recession hitting the bottom line may happen, bit 0 is out of the question when 1/6 of the world is pushing hard for EV. You must wonder, are they right? Is our country going to be left behind if we don't pursue the same strategy?