Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Damn. This would be unexpected. I didn't intend to take delivery before the battery investor day.

If you were dreaming that there was going to be some sort of sudden rapid switch of not just Tesla's more distant future battery lines, but all current lines as well, shortly after the battery investor day... I recommend going back to sleep and to keep dreaming.

And the main purpose of Tesla's battery investments is what it's always been: bringing the production cost down. People at Tesla have talked a number of times about how they're always getting people coming to them with some great new battery breakthrough, and they start pitching its energy density, its power density, and this and that, and Tesla always interrupts their pitches to ask: what's the cost per kWh in mass production? And if they can't answer it, or the answer is too high, they're shown the door.

Cost per kWh is the barrier to EV mass adoption, and the factor for maximizing Tesla's profitability. Tesla can always design for larger packs where greater stats (range, power, etc) are desired. But only IF the price point is right.

Also, I know everyone always wants the newest battery tech, but seriously stop and think... do you really though? I'm sure the people who got Tesla's first graphite-silicon anode cells were thrilled about getting the latest battery tech. Probably not so much anymore. There are advantages to not being first.

They could pirate from Model 3 to improve mix to more profitable Y while they ramp battery production.

Avast, me feels ye' plan!

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Breaking! Tesla Model Y Production To Start In Q1 2020 (Unofficial Leak) | CleanTechnica

speculation about Y prod. Maybe that’s why Elon said Q1 would be tough as they attempt to ramp

We will see, but I wouldn't be surprised. I always though the Q3 2020 date seemed a little too far off. I purposely think they picked a date for this one they knew they could either 100% meet or even beat.

 

[copyhacker]

This is a too obvious strategy for Tesla to miss. Why not do all new products in Q1 to smooth demand and use seasonality to retool and revamp. I was always asking why they would intro MY in Qs with the highest demand anyway.

I've said since the launch event that Model Y production will start around the end of Q1 2020 and ramp fairly quickly. Musk said Fall 2020 at the event, but he was obviously downplaying everything about Y to avoid Osbourning the Model 3. Several other factors point to Q1 production start:

1) Q1 is a slow quarter, the perfect time to dial production down and rearrange factory workflow
2) Shanghai will ramp Model 3 up during Q1, allowing Fremont to reallocate Model 3 capacity to Model Y
3) Shanghai should transition to LG Chem cells by end of Q1, allowing GF1 to supply Fremont 3+Y
3a) Shanghai should be able to make packs by end of Q1, also allowing GF1 to supply Fremont 3+Y
4) They ordered Y tooling around end of Q1 2019, high quality body stamping dies take ~1 year to make

5) ASP gets a boost, nullifying margin FUD
6) Overall production rate stays high, nullifying “demand cliff” FUD
7) No need to tweak logistics to target seasonally lower throughput, just keep cranking out cars

All that said, the timing is interesting to me. It would have been easy to camouflage or hide the transported cars, but they went the other way and painted them red and moved them in broad daylight. Combined with the “unofficial” leak in CT.

Why not wait for the earnings call and just mention that oh yeah, they’re starting employee betas this quarter? Keep it in their pocket to counteract a post-earnings drop?

 

[hobbes]

Breaking! Tesla Model Y Production To Start In Q1 2020 (Unofficial Leak) | CleanTechnica

speculation about Y prod. Maybe that’s why Elon said Q1 would be tough as they attempt to ramp

They say they have two independent sources confirming this. Could be huge IMHO, at least offsetting the QoQ drop in revenue when they report Q3 results. Maybe this is the reason for the recent run-up?

 

[UncaNed]

This channel has 4.69 MILLION subscribers and posted this video today, which already has 125k views:

As a heavy wheelchair guy, I don't think I could get in the car feet-first like she does, yet with the second row seatback folded down in my 5-seat Model X, it's not as hard as it sounds to sort of "roll" my chair forwards up the side and onto the second row seat back. As long as I situate it with a little care, the FWD closes nicely with the back of my wheelchair right below the FWD ceiling glass. This awkward-sounding option works well, forcing me to reach and stretch (in a good way) placing my chair and locking/unlocking the brakes

I suggest this option to other wheelchair folks because I used to disassemble and bring my wheelchair across my lap in my old Buick, and over the years the interior as well as the dashboard got very beat-up right where the touchscreen is in a model X. Covered or not, I'm not optimistic that the touchscreen will have a long life in her Model X.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla is back at the Ring.

Tesla Model S Spied Back At The Nurburgring

 

[Krugerrand]

FYI, the year ends in just 2.5 months - and most of the speculation here is about potential Model Y deliveries starting in Q1 already - two quarters ahead of the "Q3 2020" guidance.

FYI, not addressing that craziness.

 

[capster]

Tesla to start Powerwall home battery installations in Japan

Given this, the Model Y sightings, the patents and the acquisitions, I'm calling it: There will be a greater than expected step change increase in battery production capacity coming on-line within the next 6 months.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tesla is back at the Ring.

Tesla Model S Spied Back At The Nurburgring

You didn't see in the 65 pages of OT nonsense that this was already posted today?

 

[30seconds]

More Model Y

mrleetesla on Twitter

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

More Model Y

mrleetesla on Twitter

So much anecdotal evidence of an impending launch of the Model Y. It's amazing the stock isn't moving today off of the multiple pieces of news about Model Y last night and then today. Doesn't matter if it's up 10% over the past week.....a Q1 launch of Model Y high end trims would be just huge.

Hard to believe there won't be fireworks on the Q3 earnings call.

 

[FreqFlyer]

You didn't see in the 65 pages of OT nonsense that this was already posted today?

Uh............no.

 

[Tslynk67]

I think making Pearl White default was, beyond simplifying color management, also a "demand lever" that Tesla pulled to develop organic demand. It looks fantastic (it's the best color, in my totally not biased view), so it has indirect marketing advantages as well.

It is lovely, here’s a photo from Brussels service centre/showroom from this afternoon...

 

[kbM3]

Those who are using buy-and-hold are primarily doing it for its simplicity, not because it's the only valid investment strategy.

You keep making these broad, unfounded accusations against TMC members in a sour, toxic tone that I find a pretty odd mood from a Tesla investor on such a nice day.

Disagree (respectfully because I agree with 99.9% of your posts). I’m doing buy and hold because I don’t want to miss out when TSLA inevitably gaps up out of the 300’s, not because of the simplicity, and I assume many others are as well.

Take a stock like Amazon or Apple that generated 30%+ annual returns. My intuition is that 90%+ of those who were swing trading early, missed out later and did not beat 30%. I.e. 30% is an unbelievable return. Getting better than 30% by jumping in and out has to be an extremely rare event. As I said, this is my intuition and if data were available to show I’m wrong, I’d have no problem admitting it.

It just seems like swing trading is based more on hunches like “Wow $205 is really cheap so I’ll buy”, or “It dropped the last several times it hit $350, so now I’ll sell.” Whereas buy and hold is based on the value of Tesla as a company and as a powerhouse technologically.

 

[ZeApelido]

More Model Y

mrleetesla on Twitter

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - this morning: GM CEO Barra joins bargaining table in bid to end UAW strike: sources

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This is from Barrons. Anyone has more information on what Cross-Sell put out ? Obviously we don't care about the numbers - but pricing information would be interesting.

Cross-Sell Interactive is trying to give investors a new edge on Tesla stock by tracking new-vehicle registration data in two dozen states. Cross-Sell's third quarter report -- released Monday evening -- is alarming, showing lower prices and stagnate sales. Still, the report might not presage a big stock decline when Tesla reports third-quarter numbers after the close of trading on Oct. 23. Cross-Sell's data set is new and, after all, captures only a sample of total sales.​

Sounds like it's a tool for bears to purposely put out misleading information. July showed a large increase over July 2018 because Model 3 was still being ramped and had barely begun deliveries. Also their numbers simply do not add up. They say Tesla registered 31,000 US sales in Q3. That would mean about 66k overseas deliveries. Pretty sure that's not accurate lol

PS It's so infuriating that things like this can be put on the internet, specifically target towards investors, as useful information......with no responsibility for accuracy or misleading information.

 

[Fact Checking]

Are you sure? I have limit order at 260 and it didn't get triggered.

Probably the ask or the mid-price touched $260.00 - but to fill a $260.00 BUY LIMIT order the bid has to reach $260.00 - which probably only reached $259.90 or so.

(There are special order types that allow limit orders to be triggered by the ask - but few platforms offer them and even fewer traders are using them.)

Usually this doesn't matter.

 

[M3Rider]

So much anecdotal evidence of an impending launch of the Model Y. It's amazing the stock isn't moving today off of the multiple pieces of news about Model Y last night and then today. Doesn't matter if it's up 10% over the past week.....a Q1 launch of Model Y high end trims would be just huge.

Hard to believe there won't be fireworks on the Q3 earnings call.

Yeah...it seems too much is happening at the same time

- Nurburgring,
- likely a date for truck reveal announced in ER,
- China production starting any day now (saw some "few days launch start" notice yesterday),
- Y in Q1?
- shorts are covering
- Steve is being bullied on his Twitter

Is something brewing?

 

[EVNow]

Sounds like it's a tool for bears to purposely put out misleading information. July showed a large increase over July 2018 because Model 3 was still being ramped and had barely begun deliveries. Also their numbers simply do not add up. They say Tesla registered 31,000 US sales in Q3. That would mean about 66k overseas deliveries. Pretty sure that's not accurate lol

PS It's so infuriating that things like this can be put on the internet, specifically target towards investors, as useful information......with no responsibility for accuracy or misleading information.

Without seeing the full report it is difficult to say anything.

Registration data from 21 states would be useful (i'd say more than survey on TMC) - but obviously needs to be interpreted properly. For eg. we know US sales or flat / down from Q2. Similarly we know ASP is down from last year.

At this point what bears think or make of that report doesn't matter - we'll have full ER in a week. It is for us to get a better sense and be able to model the earnings in Q3 better. I'm afraid the recent SP run can again turn out to be a sell the news event if people are buying with unrealistic expectations. I prefer rallies after the news