Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

Why California? The factory is in Texas.

I could think of lots of reasons.

1. California has the largest number of existing Tesla customers
2. California has either the largest or second largest number of Tesla employees
3. California has the largest number of Service Centers and Delivery locations (to support delivery and fix post delivery issues)
4. California has the largest number of Superchargers

and so on...

Like I said California and Texas are two very large states and it's only a 4 week or so difference.

 

[tmoz]

Someone here may have more insight than me, but is the model Y the only car that is consuming 4680 cells? I thought I read somewhere that model Y isn't using 4680s anymore. So if not Model Y, where are they going? Cybertruck isn't ramping fast enough to consume them, so the semi? Or is the Model Y info not true? I think people were worried that the cybertruck would be 4680 starved, but the HV ramp appears to be a solid year away. Thoughts?

 

[Cosmacelf]

It's steer by wire, break by wire, throttle by wire, everything by wire. Clearly discussed in the Hagerty video but I think it's been covered elsewhere as well.

Literally everything on the cybertruck from the breaks to the speakers is on the same CAN network running at GB speeds.

You mean Ethernet network. I’m pretty sure Elon said it had gigabit Ethernet.

 

[dhanson865]

You mean Ethernet network. I’m pretty sure Elon said it had gigabit Ethernet.

We'll the Hagerty guy might have misspoke but he called it a GB speed CAN network.

Maybe that's him translating it into legacy auto terms as a way to make it sound sensible to non technical people?

My quote was

It's steer by wire, break by wire, throttle by wire, everything by wire. Clearly discussed in the Hagerty video but I think it's been covered elsewhere as well.

Literally everything on the cybertruck from the brakes to the speakers is on the same CAN network running at GB speeds.

Take "CAN" out if you like and it still works

oh and while we are add it change breaks to brakes.

It's steer by wire, break by wire, throttle by wire, everything by wire. Clearly discussed in the Hagerty video but I think it's been covered elsewhere as well.

Literally everything on the cybertruck from the brakes to the speakers is on the same network running at GB speeds.

start at 37:30 and watch for a few minutes for his take.

 

[tmoz]

We'll the Hagerty guy might have misspoke but he called it a GB speed CAN network.

Maybe that's him translating it into legacy auto terms as a way to make it sound sensible to non technical people?

Next, it'll be neural link.

 

[jim0266]

My 2017 Bolt EV has a rear view mirror screen. It turns out that it's kind of useless because what you are shown looks a lot different from what you see in ordinary mirror mode. It's sort of "squeezed" and hard to make out what the image is showing. It's just the wrong form factor for viewing a camera image.

With rear view on the big screen, Cybertruck can show a clear, crisp image that is properly sized and is actually helpful.

Other issue with the Bolt's video on the rear view mirror screen is for those of us who need bifocals for close-up seeing. I have to tilt my head way up to get a sharp image.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's steer by wire, break by wire, throttle by wire, everything by wire. Clearly discussed in the Hagerty video but I think it's been covered elsewhere as well.

In this discussion, Lars Moravy says "steer by wire, steer by brake" (timestamp 14:45), but I think he meant to say 'steer by wire, brake by wire'. If Tesla accepts liability for robotaxi, occupants must be locked out of steering and braking.

Design & Enginneering Interview w. Lars Moravi + Franz von Holtzhausen | Top Gear | Dec 01, 2023

Cheers!

 

[InTheMiddle]

Just a thought regarding the range discussion: perhaps it is best to assume that most here have a good understanding of what their particular reed for range is. Perhaps it is towing, or weather, or destination, or other factors…but presumably by now everyone here is familiar enough with Tesla vehicles, SuperChargers, and their own situation to make an intelligent assessment of what *their* range needs are. Instead of trying to argue why someone’s “need” isn’t valid, or they should do something different or be OK with something different, just acknowledge that they have needs which are different than yours. At @TN Mtn Man correctly points out, it’s a lifestyle choice, and telling others how they should live theirs does not work as well as actually listening to what they want even if it is different than what we might want or might do. Understand that the currently-being-built CT will work well for some and will not yet work well for others, instead of arguing why those in the latter need to change or think differently and move to the former instead of the product evolving to their needs.

 

[InTheMiddle]

Regarding the delivery in 2024 vs backlog, @Artful Dodger ’s reference to the Model 3 is quite apt. Even with the CyberTruck production rate in 2024 being far lower than many (most?) on here expected (or still expect?), I am quite certain I could place a fresh new order for one now and take delivery in 2024. <Perhaps I should do that as a simple experiment and see if I am invited to configure a new higher-priced CT sooner than my existing reservation…will contemplate that, actually, although the 500mi range was one of the biggest draw of the CT for me, personally, and 340 is no more than my current MX.> Reality is that 2024 deliveries will be to those willing to pay the higher prices for the 320mi / 340mi versions, and those with other needs (prior lower prices or greater range) will be delayed until 2025 or later. I do not expect a rush of cancellations (or even many at all)…people will just not configure until a product / price they want is ready. So, the backlog will continue to appear very large and long, despite new orders getting fulfilled quickly in 2024 in the meantime.

 

[Stretch2727]

I will post this again on the Dec deliveries in CA and TX, since some missed it. It looks like it's from the confirmation page when you place an order/reservation. Shows they will deliver more vehicles this quarter, but odd in a way as a person ordering now would not get a delivery in Dec.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730364521460465923

 

[Max Plaid]

I was concerned about the CT ramp before the delivery event, now I'm even more concerned. Did you all notice deliveries start in '24? Not now, or December, but 2024? I'm afraid production still might not even start for months. As usual with my pessimism, I hope I'm wrong, but the ramp could be even uglier than what I feared in my previous bear case.

December deliveries planned in Texas and California

 

[Todd Burch]

Additional thoughts:

If you’re towing, you might get 180 or so miles of range on the LR version.

One factor to consider is that CT already charges at 350kW, and that will almost certainly go up.

So you tow for 2.5 hours, then charge for 25 minutes. That doesn’t seem too unreasonable. In the early Model S days I drove for 3 hours and charged for an hour or so, and I survived.

There will be plenty of people who will tolerate this until the next chemistry is introduced. I would. (Yes, v4 Supercharger availability is assumed).

I recall Elon said there is 75% less wiring in the CT. I also recall wiring being a big cost and assembly line bottleneck because its flexibility makes it not a good target for automation.

The “by-wire” systems also make assembly easier, since much of it can be made as a subassembly—no shaft passing through a hole in the firewall.

Yes, lots of new tech. But the tech all improves assembly and speed of manufacturing, and removes parts. Those are reasons to perhaps be more optimistic about this ramp.

A month or so ago, I think Joe Tegtmeyer was seeing 7-10 CTs get produced in a day (not necessarily every day though). So we could potentially be closer to 200/wk already.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Regarding the delivery in 2024 vs backlog, @Artful Dodger ’s reference to the Model 3 is quite apt. Even with the CyberTruck production rate in 2024 being far lower than many (most?) on here expected (or still expect?), I am quite certain I could place a fresh new order for one now and take delivery in 2024. <Perhaps I should do that as a simple experiment and see if I am invited to configure a new higher-priced CT sooner than my existing reservation…will contemplate that, actually, although the 500mi range was one of the biggest draw of the CT for me, personally, and 340 is no more than my current MX.> Reality is that 2024 deliveries will be to those willing to pay the higher prices for the 320mi / 340mi versions, and those with other needs (prior lower prices or greater range) will be delayed until 2025 or later. I do not expect a rush of cancellations (or even many at all)…people will just not configure until a product / price they want is ready. So, the backlog will continue to appear very large and long, despite new orders getting fulfilled quickly in 2024 in the meantime.

Agree. As with all its models, Tesla needs to find a clearing price that equals production. We have seen the price drops at scale on the 3/Y to achieve this, and will work to keep the prices high for Cybertruck until production has ramped enough to clear the backlog and meet prevailing demand.

 

[Maarten]

Will you guys please think twice about the relevancy of what you think you are going to post here?
I understand everyone is excited, but I cannot keep up…

 

[jerry33]

Additional thoughts:

If you’re towing, you might get 180 or so miles of range on the LR version.

One factor to consider is that CT already charges at 350kW, and that will almost certainly go up.

So you tow for 2.5 hours, then charge for 25 minutes. That doesn’t seem too unreasonable. In the early Model S days I drove for 3 hours and charged for an hour or so, and I survived.

There will be plenty of people who will tolerate this until the next chemistry is introduced. I would. (Yes, v4 Supercharger availability is assumed).

I recall Elon said there is 75% less wiring in the CT. I also recall wiring being a big cost and assembly line bottleneck because its flexibility makes it not a good target for automation.

The “by-wire” systems also make assembly easier, since much of it can be made as a subassembly—no shaft passing through a hole in the firewall.

Yes, lots of new tech. But the tech all improves assembly and speed of manufacturing, and removes parts. Those are reasons to perhaps be more optimistic about this ramp.

A month or so ago, I think Joe Tegtmeyer was seeing 7-10 CTs get produced in a day (not necessarily every day though). So we could potentially be closer to 200/wk already.

In the early days of the Model S, there were no Superchargers (unless you happened to live in the part of California where the three Superchargers were installed).

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Order now, delivery in 2024...
View attachment 995659

That's really disappointing to see. Totally misleading from Tesla. It would be more accurate if they said "Delivery to some in 2024". If you can order now, and get a truck in 2024, it means the attrition rate on reservations is at least 90%. I don't think that's going to be the case, and if it is the case, it will be shocking by itself.

I'm doubling down, on the record, that I will not receive a CT in 2024 despite my early reservations

 

[GOVA]

Can't wait for the next round of TSLAQ FUD moving from Sudden Unintended Acceleration to Sudden Unintended Swerving.

You know these articles are coming everytime a Cybertruck crashes.

Disagree.

Tesla has always had all driving data. Elon sues now and they seem to be more cautious now with plain lies. Those days of fake acceleration and fake fires are gone IMO.

 

[Mengy]

So we are now in the last month of 2023, not many trading days left. What does everyone think the stock will do for the next few weeks? Will we see a rally into 2024 or will we drop lower to start 2024 at a low point?

 

[CHGolferJim]

I gotta say, as someone who camps a lot in many weather conditions throughout the year, roof-top tents are about the stupidest thing I've ever seen. Pay thousands to expose yourself to the wind on top of the vehicle, and/or make getting out of the tent in the middle of the night an adventure?--no thanks, Just invest in a good quality standalone tent or sleep in the truck bed itself. Better and cheaper.

Truck bed for me, too. I’ve also been thinking about a DIY contraption in the second row for a single sleeper — to benefit from climate control, and since all gear and luggage can obviously go in the truck bed. Do we have the internal dimensions of the second row yet?

 

[spacerfc]

Just a note that anti-Musk idiots are spreading FUD about CT crash test:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730542419278536997