Tesla Supercharger network

[Bet TSLA]

3. Urban coverage. This is to handle vehicles of people who cannot charge at home or work. These were essentially zero until recently.

No, there have been many of these, just not near you. Take a look at London, Hong Kong, and Shanghai.

 

[Saghost]

I know most of the discussion to this point had been about the build out of the Supercharger network. Let's just look at the U.S. And Tesla recently has had a big push in deployments in advance of the Model 3. Starting in the high density corridors first, like LA-SF and LA-Vegas, and then going forward presumably to match demand elsewhere as the fleet grows.

Had anyone, other than Tesla, taken a stab at estimating how large the US Supercharger network will need to be?

The map shows that most of the country is covered, though there are some gaps that need filling. With more EV's on the road, already existing sites will probably be expanded to be larger versus just building new sites. And we are already seeing that.

Urban Supercharger sites catering to those who cannot charge at home are also beginning to be rolled out. But as time goes by and there are more EVs in use, condos and workplaces will eventually install charging infrastructure. This will happen over time, likely years, but will at some point decrease the need for Tesla to continuously construct urban Superchargers. Not a factor now, but certainly will be in 5-10 years.

I'm pretty sure Tesla has an idea of what's needed. They know that the Supercharger network delivers a certain % of the power that all the Teslas sold to date use. This is valuable info, so they are not likely to release exact details. But I would think that the % of Supercharger use versus home charging would be fairly stable over time. Let's say it's 10% just to pick a number out of the air.

The ultimate network size would then seem to need to scale to match the number of deployed vehicles. Wider deployment of home and work chargers will reduce that over time though, as will charging infrastructure built out by other companies. Presuming Teslas can use that infrastructure.

I would love to see the raw data, since that would provide answers to a lot of the questions. The recent large surge in construction and openings was expected, and previously announced by Tesla. So we are currently still in the "mass build out" phase of the Supercharger network.

Besides wondering about the eventually size, I wonder when the rate of stall openings will start to slow down. The network deployment is actually a one time cost that will start decreasing at some point. I would imagine the stall opening data over time would be an S curve. Maybe I'll have a look at the supercharger.info site if I get a chance and see if he has a graph for that.

Anyway, glad to see that we have hit 1,000 sites Worldwide. And despite the above speculation, I don't believe we will see deployments slowing anytime soon. I could also see a scenario where businesses start providing free charging to attract EV travelers. That would free up Tesla resources to deploy elsewhere. I think that the more EV's there are on the road the sooner we start seeing some of these agreements between Tesla and others (McDonalds, In-N-Out, etc).

RT

P.S. Just killing some time till the coffee shop opens

We could have fun with this.

As always, it depends on your assumptions, but I did some big picture groundwork that may help with the perspective a while back.

Using those numbers from 2014 and the 10% assumption, and assuming Tesla wins the format war and the Supercharger network becomes the one true way to charge your EV away from home (presumably with the manufacturers buying in and supporting,) you need 113 TWh delivered annually to cover 298 billion miles (10% of the 2.98 trillion driven.)

With an average charging rate of 80 kW, that's about 1.4 billion charging hours.

Given that there are 8766 hours in a year, that means the smallest possible network to cover 10% of all miles driven annually in the U.S. with current technology is around 160,000 stalls - and realistically it should probably be five times that or a little more.

Of course, it will be a while before Tesla is covering that much of the mileage, if they ever do...

 

[Drucifer]

No, there have been many of these, just not near you. Take a look at London, Hong Kong, and Shanghai.

Good point. It was the North America market that had the intention of "enable long range travel". Other markets had other approaches.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Given that there are 8766 hours in a year, that means the smallest possible network to cover 10% of all miles driven annually in the U.S. with current technology is around 160,000 stalls - and realistically it should probably be five times that or a little more.

As a point of comparison, the number of gas stations in the USA is somewhere between 115,000 and 153,000.

Hitting that total number wouldn't be a big deal. At $150k for 8 stalls it'd only cost about $3B. If anyone thinks that would be expensive, there are about 253M registered cars and trucks, so $3B would be about $12 per vehicle.

 

[Electroman]

I think at somepoint in the next 5 years, many gas stations will host fast charging in addition to pumps.

When that happens, the charging options will explode.

 

[jelloslug]

I think at somepoint in the next 5 years, many gas stations will host fast charging in addition to pumps.

When that happens, the charging options will explode.

It's already starting to happen.

 

[Saghost]

As a point of comparison, the number of gas stations in the USA is somewhere between 115,000 and 153,000.

Hitting that total number wouldn't be a big deal. At $150k for 8 stalls it'd only cost about $3B. If anyone thinks that would be expensive, there are about 253M registered cars and trucks, so $3B would be about $12 per vehicle.

There are just under 7,000 stalls open worldwide according to supercharge info - and 42% of sites in the U.S., which seems to suggest about three thousand in the U.S. (couldn't find an exact number.)

Given how few Teslas there are right now, Tesla is well ahead of the curve.

 

[Merrill]

I think at somepoint in the next 5 years, many gas stations will host fast charging in addition to pumps.

When that happens, the charging options will explode.

Yes, they will need to do that because they will not be pumping much gas.

 

[Cosmacelf]

He was born in South Africa. His father is an Afrikaan whose family has been there a long time, but his mother was an immigrant from Canada. Because she still has Canadian citizenship, he is a Canadian citizen by birth too. He went to school initially in Canada because he could emigrate to Canada with no hassles and getting into the US was tougher, though moving to the US was always his long term goal.

I was replying to a post that said Elon grew up in Canada. I don't believe he did. He initially did a couple of undergrad years in Canada, then moved to the US. So, lived in Canada about 2 years. The reason he left South Africa was that he didn't want to serve in the S. African army (mandatory service) while Apartheid was on-going. So, again, he grew up in S. Africa.

 

[Bet TSLA]

So we're past the halfway point of 2017. How's Tesla doing on its promised doubling of North American supercharger locations (see their February 2017 letter to shareholders)?

Well, they've picked up the pace a little bit lately, but it still looks utterly hopeless. As of June 30 they had reached 398 locations operational. That's 37 new locations this year over the 361 locations they started with. In 181 days. To reach their goal they needed to open just about one new location per day.

They've opened five more in July so far, but that's still not close to one a day. As it stands, for the rest of the year they'll have to open new supercharger locations at the rate of 1.8+ per day to make their goal. I don't think that's going to happen.

To follow up on my own post, we're now past the 3/4 point and things are just looking worse. To almost meet their stated goal, Tesla will have to open three new supercharger locations in North America every day for the rest of the year. Not going to happen. They'll miss big. I wonder what went wrong, as I assume they did have the intention of doing the buildout or they wouldn't have said so.

 

[Electroman]

Nothing went wrong. That was just another one of those over optimistic goal with an aggressive timeline, that no one really took it seriously. If they achieve half of what they said they would, that is still a huge win for everyone.

 

[AudubonB]

If anyone would care to look on the brighter side, the slope of the buildout curve has turned sharply and consistently upward recently.

From supercharge.info:

 

[RubberToe]

If anyone would care to look on the brighter side...

You should probably check the site terms and conditions, not sure if that is allowed or not. Worst case, your post just gets moved to the "unsnippiness" thread...

RT

 

[HillCountryFun]

To follow up on my own post, we're now past the 3/4 point and things are just looking worse. To almost meet their stated goal, Tesla will have to open three new supercharger locations in North America every day for the rest of the year. Not going to happen. They'll miss big. I wonder what went wrong, as I assume they did have the intention of doing the buildout or they wouldn't have said so.

Well, I too am concerned about their ability to hit their 2017 goals (and 2018) goals for SpC installations, but I am seeing their "push" gaining momentum. They don't control 1) Permit signatures, 2) Site approvals, 3) Utility Installs, 4) etc. so what they have to do is have A LOT of sites underway in order to constantly show good progress. I'm finally seeing A LOT of progress. Earlier in the year, they would have 8 to 12 sites under construction at any one time (according to supercharge.info) but since Sept. 2017, they've sustained ~30 construction sites. If they're able to push and hold that to 50+ then I think we'll see them make a good showing for 2017.

I'm certainly hoping they succeed!

 

[Cosmacelf]

The ONLY time Tesla hit their Supercharger build out goals was when they announced the Supercharger network for the first time. Ie. We weren't expecting anything then. It's been one missed deadline after another since. Not that I'm complaining, just pointing it out. The SC network is still amazing. Bolt owners are realizing what life's like without the Supercharger network, and it is fairly primitive.

 

[Merrill]

When I purchased my first Tesla in 2012 I did not know how many superchargers they would build and although I hoped they would build lots, I purchased the car anyway.

 

[jrreno]

We bought our car because the infrastructure would get us where we wanted to go. It is our only car and since buying it is our default transportation whenever we can get there by land. And we love it. Knowing how much work goes into installing an SC besides the actual construction I am continually impressed at the rate of buildout.

 

[Bet TSLA]

The first surprise supercharger (meaning one not listed on supercharge.info) in the US in a while just appeared on Tesla's FindUs page. Florence, South Carolina is open. Right at the junction of I-95 and I-20. How did nobody see that one being built?

 

[Drucifer]

The first surprise supercharger (meaning one not listed on supercharge.info) in the US in a while just appeared on Tesla's FindUs page. Florence, South Carolina is open. Right at the junction of I-95 and I-20. How did nobody see that one being built?

and 18 {eighteen!!!!] pedastals. Huge for the southeast, and much better location than Santee, if you have a choice.

 

[emupilot]

Here is an update on the status of North American "Coming Soon" superchargers. There were by my count 283 on the Find Us page as of April 24th which claimed to have a target opening date in 2017. Including expansions, 11 stations came online in May, 10 in June, 10 in July, 18 in August, 23 in September, and 25 in October which is a pace which would complete about 45% of Tesla's ambitious 2017 supercharger network expansion plans. The pace of openings will continue to be rapid, however, as the number of sites in permitting or under construction is at a record high. Below is a list of the sites that came online in October and the 70 sites for which we have information or at least rumors on their location. Sites with confirmed locations are shown at supercharge.info; details on all sites are available at the Supercharger Progress wiki.

Location	Site Known?	Status
Oxford, AL	yes	operational
Phoenix, AZ	yes	under construction
Tucson, AZ	yes	operational
Willcox, AZ	yes	under construction
Baker, CA	yes	under construction
Carlsbad, CA	yes	in permitting
Concord, CA	yes	under construction
Cupertino, CA	yes	under construction
Fountain Valley, CA	yes	expansion operational
Fremont II, CA	yes	under construction hiatus
Kettleman City, CA	yes	under construction
Manteca, CA	yes	expansion under construction
Mount Shasta, CA	yes	expansion under construction?
Riverside, CA	yes	in permitting
Sacramento, CA	yes	operational
Salinas, CA	yes	operational
San Clemente, CA	yes	under construction
San Dimas, CA	maybe	in design/permitting?
San Mateo (Bridgepointe)	yes	operational
Santa Clarita	yes	in permitting
Truckee I (Gateway Center), CA	yes	expansion in permitting
Yermo, CA	yes	awaiting other construction
Lone Tree II, CO	yes	under construction
Poncha Springs, CO	yes	under construction?
Danbury, CT	yes	awaiting power on / testing
Manchester, CT	yes	awaiting transformer / hookup
West Hartford II, CT	maybe	in site selection
Lewes, DE	yes	under construction
Altamonte Springs, FL	yes	in permitting
Aventura, FL	maybe	in site selection
Miami - Wynwood, FL	maybe	in site selection
West Melbourne, FL	yes	under construction
Buford, GA	yes	in permitting
Sioux City, IA	maybe	in design/permitting?
Rolling Meadows, IL	yes	operational
Colby, KS	yes	operational
Emporia, KS	yes	in design / permitting?
Leominster, MA	yes	awaiting transformer / hookup
Lynnfield, MA	sort of	in design / permitting?
Gaithersburg, MD	yes	operational
National Harbor, MD	yes	operational
Freeport, ME	yes	operational
Auburn Hills, MI	yes	under construction
Big Rapids, MI	yes	under construction
Gaylord, MI	yes	awaiting transformer / hookup
Livonia, MI	yes	under construction
Muskegon, MI	yes	under construction
Roseville, MI	yes	under construction
Rochester, MN	yes	operational
Sherburn, MN	yes	under construction
Fayetteville, NC	yes	under construction
Greensboro, NC	yes	in permitting
Hickory, NC	yes	in permitting
Raleigh, NC	yes	operational
Woodbridge, NJ	yes	under construction
Deming, NM	yes	under construction
Brooklyn, NY	yes	operational
Manorville, NY	maybe	in permitting?
New Rochelle, NY	yes	in permitting
Toledo, OH	yes	awaiting transformer / hookup
Grants Pass, OR	yes	expansion operational
Bellefonte, PA	yes	awaiting transformer / hookup
Florence, SC	yes	operational
Oacoma, SD	yes	operational
Sioux Falls, SD	yes	operational
Spearfish, SD	yes	operational
Cookeville, TN	yes	operational
Austin (North Loop), TX	yes	awaiting power on / testing
Dallas, TX	yes	in permitting
San Antonio, TX	yes	in permitting
Southlake, TX	yes	in permitting
Waco, TX	yes	expansion operational
Fredericksburg, VA	yes	in permitting
Glen Allen, VA	yes	expansion under construction
Mount Jackson, VA	yes	under construction
Richmond, VA	yes	under construction
Woodbridge, VA	yes	expansion under construction
Snoqualmie, WA	maybe	in design / permitting
Vancouver, WA	yes	under construction
Madison II, WI	yes	under construction
Oak Creek, WI	yes	under construction
Oshkosh, WI	yes	in permitting
Wausau, WI	yes	operational
Beckley, WV	yes	awaiting power on / testing
Weston, WV	yes	operational
Wheatland, WY	yes	under construction?
Squamish, BC	yes	expansion under construction
Barrie II, ON	yes	under construction
Markham, ON	yes	under construction
Owen Sound, ON	yes	under construction
Sudbury, ON	yes	under construction
Brossard, QC	yes	operational
Laval, QC	yes	under construction
Lévis, QC	yes	operational
Mascouche, QC	yes	under construction

Just for fun, below are the remaining 144 sites for which we need to sleuth out information:
Montgomery AL, Bakersfield II CA, Calabasas CA, Commerce CA, Corona CA, Daly City CA, Downey CA, El Cajon CA, Emeryville CA, Fairfield CA, Folsom III CA, Fresno II CA, Glendale CA, Hayward CA, Hesperia CA, Hollywood CA, Irvine CA, La Jolla CA, Lake Elsinore CA, Laytonville CA, Lone Pine II CA, Long Beach CA, Marin City CA, Napa II CA, Northridge CA, Palm Desert CA, Pasadena CA, Petaluma II CA, Pomona CA, Redding CA, Redondo Beach CA, Roseville II CA, San Bernardino CA, San Felipe CA, San Francisco (Financial Dist) CA, San Francisco (Mission) CA, San Francisco (SOMA) CA, San Jose CA, San Luis Obispo CA, San Mateo III CA, San Rafael CA, San Ramon CA, Santa Barbara CA, Santa Cruz CA, Santa Monica CA, Sherman Oaks CA, Stockton CA, Sunnyvale CA, Thousand Oaks CA, Vallejo CA, Vista CA, Alamosa CO, Aspen CO, Boulder CO, Denver II CO, Estes Park CO, Darien III CT, North Stamford CT, Old Lyme CT, Stamford CT, Torrington CT, Trumbull CT, Washington DC, Boca Raton FL, Fort Myers FL, Miami (Brickell) FL, Orlando FL, West Palm Beach FL, Atlanta III GA, Madison GA, Honolulu HI, Altoona IA, Shelby IA, Chicago (Lincoln Park) IL, Chicago III IL, New Orleans LA, Beverly MA, Braintree MA, Mansfield MA, Natick MA, Orleans MA, Seekonk MA, Wareham MA, Beltsville MD, Halethorpe MD, St. Clair Shores MI, Alexandria MN, Minneapolis MN, Kansas City MO, St. Louis MO, Hattiesburg MS, Statesville NC, Fargo ND, North Conway NH, Barnegat Township NJ, Florence NJ, Hackensack NJ, Jersey City NJ, Mount Laurel NJ, Newark NJ, Paramus NJ, Parsippany-Troy Hills NJ, Socorro NM, Brooklyn II NY, Clinton Corners NY, Hicksville NY, Islandia NY, Lower Manhattan NY, Manhattan (Midtown) NY, Manhattan III NY, Queens NY, Yonkers NY, Boardman OR, Portland OR, Springfield II OR, Tigard OR, King of Prussia PA, Philadelphia PA, Charleston SC, Nashville II TN, Austin (Downtown) TX, Dilley TX, Fort Stockton TX, Fort Worth TX, Fredericksburg TX, Houston II TX, Laredo TX, Pecos TX, Plano TX, Wichita Falls TX, Fairfax VA, Tysons VA, Bellevue WA, Lynnwood WA, Okanogan WA, Olympia WA, Seattle WA, Wenatchee WA, Milwaukee WI, Sturgeon Bay WI, Calgary AB, Sicamous BC, Tsawwassen BC, Vancouver BC, Belleville ON, Cambridge ON, Concord ON, Hamilton ON, Mississauga (Meadowvale) ON, Mississauga II ON, North York ON, Ottawa ON, Pickering ON, Renfrew ON, St. Catherines ON, Stardale ON, Toronto ON, Vaughan ON, Charlemagne QC, Drummondville QC, La Malbaie QC, Point-Claire QC, Saguenay QC, Saint Therese QC, Trois-Rivieres QC