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Daimler CEO Isn't Investing in Tesla's Giga-Factory
Daimler CEO Isns Seat - WSJ
The plot thickens.
Why is Mr Zetsche discussing Tesla and not Mercedes Benz, while at one of the biggest auto shows in the world?
Daimler CEO Isns Seat - WSJ
The plot thickens.
Why is Mr Zetsche discussing Tesla and not Mercedes Benz, while at one of the biggest auto shows in the world?
Interesting article. This caught my eye, quote:“A question is, when do you realistically see the next-generation batteries,” Mr. Zetsche said. “Lithium air, lithium sulfur? No one has the answer to the next generation.”
The question that he poses can be posed at any point in time, past, present or future. There will never be a certain answer to his question, the science evolves and what is best option today is certain to be superseded in the future. If one is to follow his logic, then no investment should be made into producing any product as they all eventually become superseded.
Perhaps gigafactory is a large investment and he may see it as high risk that his business does not need to take.
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California Lithium Battery | The CalBattery Solution
What if the next generation battery is Li-ion?
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
jackl,
I remember looking at how other large manufacturers would look at the Gigafactory shortly after Elon mentioned doubling the world's LiOn capacity in the (Q1 13 ??) quarterly call. Specifically, I posted about the type and nature of the conversation at the board level that would be required to allow any meaningful focus on BEV. The cult of personality that would be required at the top to allow shareholder value to suffer while changing focus from ICE to BEV would be on the order of a Musk and that kind of leadership does not exist (that I am aware of) in other large OEMs.
MB's comments are in line with a CEO who can not respond competitively and thus needs to buy time. If he comes out and says "hell yes, this is the only way to go make larger numbers of BEVs at prices that will compete with ICE" his board will start asking how he is going to compete when he is the ICE in that BEV sandwich.
We are all watching the start of the death of an enormous industry (or two if you count what is happening with PV, Batteries and Utilities). I am curious as can be how this will all play out. I'm finally going for that MBA by studying real time cases
I remember looking at how other large manufacturers would look at the Gigafactory shortly after Elon mentioned doubling the world's LiOn capacity in the (Q1 13 ??) quarterly call. Specifically, I posted about the type and nature of the conversation at the board level that would be required to allow any meaningful focus on BEV. The cult of personality that would be required at the top to allow shareholder value to suffer while changing focus from ICE to BEV would be on the order of a Musk and that kind of leadership does not exist (that I am aware of) in other large OEMs.
MB's comments are in line with a CEO who can not respond competitively and thus needs to buy time. If he comes out and says "hell yes, this is the only way to go make larger numbers of BEVs at prices that will compete with ICE" his board will start asking how he is going to compete when he is the ICE in that BEV sandwich.
We are all watching the start of the death of an enormous industry (or two if you count what is happening with PV, Batteries and Utilities). I am curious as can be how this will all play out. I'm finally going for that MBA by studying real time cases
Chickenlittle
Banned
funny but I don't understand him saying he wouldn't invest in gf. He already is invested in it. Can he be unaware of Mercedes investment in tesla?
Back to China news, the latest.
Interesting bit, "While the city received more than 90 bids for each available permit for conventional gasoline autos in a February drawing, there were only 1,428 applicants for 1,666 new-energy vehicle plates offered, the municipal government said."
Interesting bit, "While the city received more than 90 bids for each available permit for conventional gasoline autos in a February drawing, there were only 1,428 applicants for 1,666 new-energy vehicle plates offered, the municipal government said."
That's because the BEV (other than Tesla) is not popular at all in China, usually they (like BYD) are urgly and inferior performance. Even Tesla is excluded from "new engergy" vehicle plates application, but for Model S buyers, they usually have more than one vehicles, so plate application is not a problem for them.
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New Shanghai store under construction now, looks like in remodeling stage. You can even see the super charger stalls are up. From geographical deploymnet point of view, besides Bejing (cover northern China), Shanghai should be the next (eastern China), need it urgly. Then is Guangzhou (Southern China) and Chengdu (Western China).
http://tieba.baidu.com/p/2996991888
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There is no media coverage for Elon attending Beijing Auto Show Opening Ceremony yet, so I suspect Elon just can't make it due to delay for SpaceX launch.
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New Shanghai store under construction now, looks like in remodeling stage. You can even see the super charger stalls are up. From geographical deploymnet point of view, besides Bejing (cover northern China), Shanghai should be the next (eastern China), need it urgly. Then is Guangzhou (Southern China) and Chengdu (Western China).
http://tieba.baidu.com/p/2996991888
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There is no media coverage for Elon attending Beijing Auto Show Opening Ceremony yet, so I suspect Elon just can't make it due to delay for SpaceX launch.
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How does that work in China - people are allowed to freely switch a plate between vehicles?
It's a surprise. Shanghai store to be opened on Wednesday http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA...message&isappinstalled=0&uin=MTIwNDE0NTE0NA==
Also super charger station in Beijing and Shanghai will be opened this week. (I guess it's for demo purpose, not for long distance travel yet).
Also super charger station in Beijing and Shanghai will be opened this week. (I guess it's for demo purpose, not for long distance travel yet).
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Maybe. Perhaps the China model needs to be different. Since few people have garages, perhaps the right strategy is superchargers with an at-cost billing strategy. Then you can have free ones in between cities too. I have always been leery of the free-always philosophy. Surely the future will include partner-licensed SC in NA/Europe too. (If I ran a trendy cafe near a highway, I would want the option to add a SC to my parking lot to draw in customers, for instance)
It's not really free, because you are paying $2k for supercharging capability. I suspect that the wiring in the car to make it capable of supercharging is only a couple hundred bucks and the remainder goes into Tesla's pockets to build out the superchargers and to pay for electricity.
It costs about $10 to "fill" up a model S, so everyone would have to use the supercharger about 200 times on average in order for Tesla to lose money on the deal. That means about 40k of each cars miles are done on the supercharger network. Actual numbers will probably average out to be closer to 4k miles per car than 40k.
IMO Tesla is making big money on this "free" supercharging capability.
It is brilliant marketing too, because "free" sounds a lot better than "overcharged, pre-paid" supercharging capability.
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Than again, building an SC costs something like $150k/300k (w/o & with solar panels) according to an earlier Tesla (Elon?) interview. And that's without electricity or maintenance costs.
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The consumer doesn't care how much it costs to build a supercharger station, since he is only getting $5-$10 worth of electricity at each visit and that is all that matters.
Tesla's cost of $500k with battery storage and solar is much cheaper than a "pay as you go" system that costs $150k to build out without battery storage and w/o solar panels in the long run.
Even at $500k, Tesla only needs to sell 250 cars (at $2k per car for supercharging capability) to get $500k for a new supercharger station.
And I do not disagree. Just saying, even by your own math, at 250 cars per SC just to recoup initial costs, and 100 SCs online today, that's 25000 cars - or about the number of Model S sold by the end of last year. Now there are more SCs under construction and the network will only grow in the coming years. I agree it's one of Tesla's biggest aces up their sleeves, but they don't get these stations for free either, so it is not just "big money" on the income side, it is a considerable investment as well.
I would love to see other companies start licensing it to get access to the network. Whether they would pay up in advance to Tesla (per car), their customers would pay at the SC with a credit card, or a combination of these two scenarios, it would almost be pure profit for Tesla.
The "free" model still requires that the SC always be along highways, enabling long distance travel. (Read: not intended for daily charging) Nothing wrong with that. Build out the pre-paid/free network like crazy. I just think that third parties should be allowed to build out for-profit SC as well. Let the free market help build out ubiquity. Elon has said they are all about options. So let me have the option of paying $5 to charge in destination cities.
There has been much discussion elsewhere on TMC about the "destination problem" and "san francisco" problem. If you have a cool city place with garage or street parking you can't charge at home. Or, if you drive 100 miles past a SC to get to a destination you have limited freedom at your destination (as I found out the hard way recently on a business trip). I think it would be fine for TM to simply expand the SC network strategy by selling charger hardware to partners in a licensed program.
I think China is a bunch of "san francisco"s. So if you want adoption in China they may have to be addressing that issue sooner than later.
And, BTW, that's also true for Europe (street parking). And sure, it is a smaller problem with the S and the X, as people shopping in that price range may mostly have garages. But when Model E comes...
Anyway... going back to China, I would be really interested in finding out more about that deal Elon is about to sign/has signed with that huge Chinese (petrol?) company about adding SCs to their existing locations. Any details our Chinese speaking friends here my have read on that?
