Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[Knightshade]

Nio has done 20 million battery swaps. The target is urban dwellers who lack overnight charging. That's very common in China. A swap station doesn't take up as much expensive urban real estate as a DCFC with the same throughput, and is much faster for users. They also let you swap into a bigger pack if you want to take a long trip.

Apparently it wasn't a very sustainable business model- this is from a couple weeks ago:

NIO slashes EV prices and removes key free battery swap service

EV maker NIO revealed Monday it’s slashing prices on all of its models by $4,200 (30,000 yuan) in China in...

electrek.co

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Apparently it wasn't a very sustainable business model- this is from a couple weeks ago:

NIO slashes EV prices and removes key free battery swap service

EV maker NIO revealed Monday it’s slashing prices on all of its models by $4,200 (30,000 yuan) in China in...

electrek.co

Maybe going the same way as the Supercharger network. Free to cheap to expensive.

 

[JRP3]

Oh. My bad. I didn’t realize someone actually tried to make a pack-swapping EV. I always thought the limits of stupidity ended at hydrogen.

Tesla did it as well

 

[MP3Mike]

Ford originally planned to make ~55k F-150 Lightnings in 2023, but later upped that to say that they would hit a 150k/year run rate by mid-2023. To give them the benefit of the doubt lets say ~27.5k in the first half of the year and ~75k in the second half of the year, for ~103k for all of 2023. How are they doing on that plan?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1674899062963724293

So they tripled sales vs 1H22. How many did the sell in 1H22? All of 4,469. So that means that they have sold ~13.5k so far this year. (Or about 13% of their goal for 2023.) Shoot they didn't even meet their original plan for ~27k in the first half of the year, hitting only half of it.

Does anyone think they are really going to sell ~90k F-150 Lightnings in the next 6 months?

Seems like they are falling way behind their plans/predictions. What is the issue? Not enough demand so they are slowing production? Too many issues? (Obviously the battery fire did slow down their production for the first half of the year.)

 

[nativewolf]

Yes Ford is struggling to ramp and I don't know if that is battery issues as with Tesla (cell limited) or other issues. i know people waiting> we have ordered another one.

 

[Knightshade]

So they tripled sales vs 1H22. How many did the sell in 1H22? All of 4,469. So that means that they have sold ~13.5k so far this year. (Or about 13% of their goal for 2023.) Shoot they didn't even meet their original plan for ~27k in the first half of the year, hitting only half of it.

Your link includes July sales in 4469. Which is 2H 2022.

Back those out and 1H 2022 was only 2296 trucks.

Triple which is only 6888 trucks.

So it's much worse than even you suggested

 

[Doggydogworld]

Ford originally planned to make ~55k F-150 Lightnings in 2023, but later upped that to say that they would hit a 150k/year run rate by mid-2023.

Ford gave no date when they originally upped their Lightning production goal to 150k/year. In early March they said 150k/year by end of 2023. I never saw mid-2023, perhaps you can supply a link?

Does anyone think they are really going to sell ~90k F-150 Lightnings in the next 6 months?

That's your number, it was never theirs.

Back those out and 1H 2022 was only 2296 trucks.
Triple which is only 6888 trucks.

They sold 7333 Lightnings through May this year. I don't know why Farley tweeted about tripling sales more than a month after the fact. Probably means they didn't reach 4x = 9184, though. So a max of ~1800 in June vs. 1335 in April and 1707 in May?

Seems like they are falling way behind their plans/predictions. What is the issue? Not enough demand so they are slowing production? Too many issues? (Obviously the battery fire did slow down their production for the first half of the year.)

Sales are very slow, even using correct numbers. There are anecdotal reports of inventory sitting on dealer lots, yet Ford said a few weeks ago increased production would reduce long wait times by fall.

This graph from an article last year is even nuttier. First, they show 14 months of 2023 model year production instead of 12. Second, MY 23 production continues through November, extremely late by legacy standards. Why don't they switch to 2024 after the June/July changeover period, as they do for every other vehicle? Fourth, the article says MY 24 production starts in November, but the graph shows MY 23 November production is the same as September and October. How do they start a new model year without impacting production of the old one?

Finally, if we assume Sep/Oct/Nov23 production is 10k/month, leaving room for one final step to 12.5k in December per their 150k/year run rate goal, then the Oct/Nov/Dec22 bars are ~2k and the Mar/Apr/May bars are ~3k. They sold 13,321 in 2H22, implying ~2.5k/month production, though it's possible they also drained inventory some. They unexpectedly suspended production during parts of Feb/Mar due to a battery fire issue, but sales should have been back to the ~3k level by May. Even if we allot a few hundred trucks for Canada/Mexico they were still only around 2k in May and presumably June.

None of this completely makes sense, but the low sales in 1H23 were mostly by plan plus impact from the unplanned fire-related production pause. And it's clear they plan much higher production after the June/July changeover. But who really knows what will happen.

 

[Knightshade]

They sold 7333 Lightnings through May this year. I don't know why Farley tweeted about tripling sales more than a month after the fact. Probably means they didn't reach 4x = 9184, though. So a max of ~1800 in June vs. 1335 in April and 1707 in May?

Yup exactly my read too, if they were already at 3x end of May and he's now tweeting about 3x including June, June sales sucked. Otherwise he'd be touting 4x.

Either way-- let's go with what you said and they were never specific about WEN 150k RUN RATE and maybe they didn't mean they'd be there until ON Dec 31 and have a much lower run rate before then.

They originally said 55k total for 2023 before the increase though right?

But they're under 9k for the first half of the year, and seemingly still stuck around 2-3k a month run rate. Over a full year from production start.

 

[MP3Mike]

Ford gave no date when they originally upped their Lightning production goal to 150k/year. In early March they said 150k/year by end of 2023. I never saw mid-2023, perhaps you can supply a link?

It was reported by multiple news sites: https://fordauthority.com/2022/01/ford-f-150-lightning-production-will-double-to-150k-annual-units/

To meet a high level of demand, Ford will nearly double its planned F-150 Lightning production to 150,000 units per year at the Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle Center. To accomplish this, the automaker has put together a small task force of employees from manufacturing, purchasing, strategy, product development, and capacity planning that is responsible for finding ways to quickly expand production and is also working with suppliers and workers at other plants to increase the capacity of parts such as battery cells, battery trays, and electric drive systems. The automaker expects to reach its projected 150k target by mid-2023.

Ford Explains How It Will Reach 150,000 F-150 Lightning Per Year

Reservations for the electric pickup truck are still closed: the only way you can order one is by asking for updates on the vehicle page

www.autoevolution.com

Ford added that it wants to achieve “a run-rate of 150,000” electric pickup trucks by mid-2023.

 

[Doggydogworld]

It was reported by multiple news sites: https://fordauthority.com/2022/01/ford-f-150-lightning-production-will-double-to-150k-annual-units/

Ford Explains How It Will Reach 150,000 F-150 Lightning Per Year

Reservations for the electric pickup truck are still closed: the only way you can order one is by asking for updates on the vehicle page

www.autoevolution.com

Thanks. I mostly rely on company press releases and quoted statements. These unattributed claims are often BS. Both stories came straight from the press release I linked above, which says nothing about mid-2023. But execs speak off the record and say mid-2023 to create buzz. Or they say something they know the reporters will misinterpret as mid-2023. For example, they may have said they'd start MY 24 production at 150k/year, knowing the reporters will interpret that as mid-2023 because that's "always" when new model year production starts. But as the slide above shows, Ford bizarrely delayed MY 24 Lightning production until November.

Or maybe the execs fully expected MY 24 production to start after the mid-year changeover, and something happened since then to delay it. I still don't understand why MY 23 production lasts 14 months, even though it also started late.

Maybe they're trying to be like Tesla, and line model years up with calendar years

EDIT - as another example, the second story quotes a 2024 production start in Blue Oval City. But AFAIK their published start date has always been 2025.

 

[wdolson]

Ford gave no date when they originally upped their Lightning production goal to 150k/year. In early March they said 150k/year by end of 2023. I never saw mid-2023, perhaps you can supply a link?

That's your number, it was never theirs.


They sold 7333 Lightnings through May this year. I don't know why Farley tweeted about tripling sales more than a month after the fact. Probably means they didn't reach 4x = 9184, though. So a max of ~1800 in June vs. 1335 in April and 1707 in May?


Sales are very slow, even using correct numbers. There are anecdotal reports of inventory sitting on dealer lots, yet Ford said a few weeks ago increased production would reduce long wait times by fall.

This graph from an article last year is even nuttier. First, they show 14 months of 2023 model year production instead of 12. Second, MY 23 production continues through November, extremely late by legacy standards. Why don't they switch to 2024 after the June/July changeover period, as they do for every other vehicle? Fourth, the article says MY 24 production starts in November, but the graph shows MY 23 November production is the same as September and October. How do they start a new model year without impacting production of the old one?

View attachment 952377

Finally, if we assume Sep/Oct/Nov23 production is 10k/month, leaving room for one final step to 12.5k in December per their 150k/year run rate goal, then the Oct/Nov/Dec22 bars are ~2k and the Mar/Apr/May bars are ~3k. They sold 13,321 in 2H22, implying ~2.5k/month production, though it's possible they also drained inventory some. They unexpectedly suspended production during parts of Feb/Mar due to a battery fire issue, but sales should have been back to the ~3k level by May. Even if we allot a few hundred trucks for Canada/Mexico they were still only around 2k in May and presumably June.

None of this completely makes sense, but the low sales in 1H23 were mostly by plan plus impact from the unplanned fire-related production pause. And it's clear they plan much higher production after the June/July changeover. But who really knows what will happen.

When Ford announced in May that they would be switching to the Tesla standard for charging starting in 2024, it probably Osborrned sales. People who want a Lightning have decided to wait until the trucks with the Tesla plug hit the market.

The delay in production for the 2024 model year may also be because of the switchover. The engineering department needs to rework the charging system for the new plug and the software needs to be updated to support the Tesla supercharger network as well as handle the new protocol. Some electronics probably needs to change to the new protocol too.

The decision to switchover probably came after the lofty production numbers came out.

 

[MP3Mike]

When Ford announced in May that they would be switching to the Tesla standard for charging starting in 2024, it probably Osborrned sales. People who want a Lightning have decided to wait until the trucks with the Tesla plug hit the market.

They will have a long wait, as Ford said that vehicles will start shipping with a NACS inlet in 2025. So are they really going to hold off buying for 2 years?

 

[nativewolf]

adapter next year and there is still a waiting list.

 

[RobStark]

The least expensive Lightning with 320 miles of range is $81,269 including destination.

The base Silverado EV automotive journalist are hearing from GM employees is going to be $52k-$53k and get ~350 miles of range.

Lightning stock has been growing since base price crossed the $61k barrier.

I don't think it is the NACS plug osborning sales.

 

[wdolson]

The least expensive Lightning with 320 miles of range is $81,269 including destination.

The base Silverado EV automotive journalist are hearing from GM employees is going to be $52k-$53k and get ~350 miles of range.

Lightning stock has been growing since base price crossed the $61k barrier.

I don't think it is the NACS plug osborning sales.

Good point

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675426282509860864

BYD sold 352k BEVs in Q2.

 

[Knightshade]

The least expensive Lightning with 320 miles of range is $81,269 including destination.

The base Silverado EV automotive journalist are hearing from GM employees is going to be $52k-$53k and get ~350 miles of range.

I don't think so Tim.

Chevy Silverado EV debuts with monster battery, 450+ mile range for better (or worse?)

There's a lot to go over with Chevy's Silverado EV but what makes it really unique is the huge 200+kWh battery and the 450+ mile range.

electrek.co

Looks like any for sale this year will initially be the $78,000 450 mile work truck and the RST first edition at $105,000, and debuting "at end of year" will be the $72,905, 350 mile one.


The only sub-$70,000 one listed, with no specifics on specs other than "competitively priced with more range vs. competition" will be out sometime next year.

That could easily be same-price-as-cheapest-Lightning but 250 miles instead of 230 miles range.

 

[petit_bateau]

No room for complacency

My new Hyundai Kona electric car won’t charge fully – I want a refund

We tried everything but the company’s mantra iss ‘We understand your frustration but we cannot help you’

www.theguardian.com

 

[gglockner]

better than battery popping i suppose

More like battery pooping , amirite?

 

[gglockner]

Tesla did it as well

Sort-of. I think my 2014 Model S 85 supported battery swapping. Tesla built a demonstration station near the Harris Ranch Supercharger; I recall it was built to get a government grant. The battery swap program was quickly canceled; this article on Teslarati suggests it was available to the public, albeit briefly.

My guess is that battery swapping failed in the USA for a few reasons:

• People who pay a premium for an electric car want to keep their battery, not some other battery that was abused by 'the other guy'
• Supercharging and other DC fast charging improved over the years, reducing the charge times and the benefits for battery swapping