Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[uscbucsfan]

Average .05c kWh over the network is a fantasy.

At best 10% profitability on Supercharging is a long ways off. If ever.

No, I'm stating of a known location that they pay, max, .05c and charge .31c.

There's no numbers to back your claim. I can prove robotaxi isn't close.

 

[RobStark]

No, I'm stating of a known location that they pay, max, .05c and charge .31c.

There's no numbers to back your claim. I can prove robotaxi isn't close.

One location is irrelevant.

You can't prove Supercharger is or will be profitable.

 

[GleanerC]

Average retail electricity price for industrial consumers in the United States 1970 to 2021.

According to Statista it was 7.26 per kWh in 2021

According to my Tesla app I’ve paid, on average, 35 cents per kWh here in the midwest over the last year.

 

[MP3Mike]

As discussed in another thread, Tesla absolutely makes money on SCs. According to Elon, they make 10% profit with all costs included.

He didn't say that. He said they aim to do that, but that doesn't mean they actually do. They might if you look at an individual site, or maybe just exising high volume sites, but no way for the network as a whole while they are expanding it.

Right, but 10% isn't out of reach and Elon has reiterated that is their goal when they factor in sites.

It is out of reach until such time as Tesla stops expanding the Supercharger network.

Average retail electricity price for industrial consumers in the United States 1970 to 2021.

According to Statista it was 7.26 per kWh in 2021

But that probably doesn't include the connection/demand charges which can be significant.

 

[MP3Mike]

I can prove robotaxi isn't close.

I think you just proved what @RobStark was saying. Tesla aims for both a profitable Supercharger network, as well as a profitable Robotaxi network. As you said you can prove that they haven't achieved what they aimed to do.

We have no idea what the net is for the Supercharger network, but it is highly likely to be profitable while they are still expanding it at breakneck speed. (Though the Ford deal might help, but that doesn't start for about another year.)

 

[GleanerC]

But that probably doesn't include the connection/demand charges which can be significant.

100% agree. As an example I’m familiar with one facility here locally, 78% of their annual electric bill was for demand charges until a demand controller was installed. Just trying to include some real numbers even if they were anecdotal and local. Speaking of local our industrial rate is 2.16 cents per kWh. Then demand charges and such are, of course, in addition.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Average retail price for US electricity is $0.23 per kWh.

Rolling 12 month average US electricity prices (cents/kWh):
15.56 - Residential
12.79 - Commercial
8.62 - Industrial

I figure Supercharger sites pay commercial rates, not industrial. 12.79/kWh is an oversimplification. Typical rates would be something like 7 cents / kWh energy charge plus $25 per kW demand charge. In some areas the energy charge will vary with time of day. The demand charge is based on the highest consumption during the month. If your consumption is perfectly constant all day, every day the demand charge in my example only adds 3-4 cents/kWh. If your consumption is peaky the demand charge can raise your per kWh cost by 3-10x. DCFC sites tend to be very peaky, and suffer from high demand charges. Tesla, EA and others don't charge 25-60 cents/kWh out of greed -- they do it to cover demand charges.

No, I'm stating of a known location that they pay, max, .05c

Source for this claim?

 

[uscbucsfan]

Rolling 12 month average US electricity prices (cents/kWh):
15.56 - Residential
12.79 - Commercial
8.62 - Industrial

I figure Supercharger sites pay commercial rates, not industrial. 12.79/kWh is an oversimplification. Typical rates would be something like 7 cents / kWh energy charge plus $25 per kW demand charge. In some areas the energy charge will vary with time of day. The demand charge is based on the highest consumption during the month. If your consumption is perfectly constant all day, every day the demand charge in my example only adds 3-4 cents/kWh. If your consumption is peaky the demand charge can raise your per kWh cost by 3-10x. DCFC sites tend to be very peaky, and suffer from high demand charges. Tesla, EA and others don't charge 25-60 cents/kWh out of greed -- they do it to cover demand charges.


Source for this claim?

My local co-op said they made a deal with Tesla to provide residential rates which are .05c kwh off peak, .21c peak. This location they charge .31 c off-peak.

They announced it a news letter for apartment dwellers.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I think you just proved what @RobStark was saying. Tesla aims for both a profitable Supercharger network, as well as a profitable Robotaxi network. As you said you can prove that they haven't achieved what they aimed to do.

We have no idea what the net is for the Supercharger network, but it is highly likely to be profitable while they are still expanding it at breakneck speed. (Though the Ford deal might help, but that doesn't start for about another year.)

I think the individual chargers could be making that profit, but obviously when factoring in expansion, there's capital being spent there.

My only pushback is this notion that Tesla has no intention on making profit on SC. They absolutely plan to make a ton of money on them and existing units could be profitable now.

 

[nativewolf]

Rolling 12 month average US electricity prices (cents/kWh):
15.56 - Residential
12.79 - Commercial
8.62 - Industrial

I figure Supercharger sites pay commercial rates, not industrial. 12.79/kWh is an oversimplification. Typical rates would be something like 7 cents / kWh energy charge plus $25 per kW demand charge. In some areas the energy charge will vary with time of day. The demand charge is based on the highest consumption during the month. If your consumption is perfectly constant all day, every day the demand charge in my example only adds 3-4 cents/kWh. If your consumption is peaky the demand charge can raise your per kWh cost by 3-10x. DCFC sites tend to be very peaky, and suffer from high demand charges. Tesla, EA and others don't charge 25-60 cents/kWh out of greed -- they do it to cover demand charges.


Source for this claim?

At the volumes of electricity they purchase they will actually be buying below industrial I'd guess. How much longer before Tesla becomes the largest buyer of electricity in the USA? If anyone wants to help figure the point in time out I'd be interested in collaborating.

 

[Doggydogworld]

My local co-op said they made a deal with Tesla to provide residential rates which are .05c kwh off peak, .21c peak. This location they charge .31 c off-peak.

Sure, I can see a one-off deal like that. Especially from a co-op, they sometimes operate under unusual rules. If enough cars charge there during off-peak hours Tesla might make some money off that one site. Do you happen to know if they have stationary batteries there?

At the volumes of electricity they purchase they will actually be buying below industrial I'd guess. How much longer before Tesla becomes the largest buyer of electricity in the USA? If anyone wants to help figure the point in time out I'd be interested in collaborating.

Aluminum smelters get industrial rates. GF Nevada gets industrial rates. A typical Supercharger? No way. The giant one at Harris Ranch? Maybe.

I don't think it matters, though. The rate cards are similar for commercial and industrial. Industrial pay less per kWh, on average, because smelters, chemical plants, etc. run at a fixed level 24x7. So their demand charges are relatively low. Even at industrial rates a Supercharger will average a lot more than that 8.62 cents because they are so peaky.

Musk has complained about demand charges, so it's not like I'm making this stuff up. I just stumbled on this study -- look at those BGE chargers with super-low utilization. They're paying over $1/kWh due to demand charges! Tesla utilization is vastly better, so I'm sure they paid much less. But not 8 cents, lol.

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664209948732014592

 

[uscbucsfan]

Sure, I can see a one-off deal like that. Especially from a co-op, they sometimes operate under unusual rules. If enough cars charge there during off-peak hours Tesla might make some money off that one site. Do you happen to know if they have stationary batteries there?

Yes, they do.

 

[nativewolf]

Thanks @Doggydogworld the whole demand charge question has been very informative. Our team is getting ready to standup a mill to finish vertical integration of our sustainable forest products and demand charges had not been considered. Definitely incentive to create workflow with consistent processes or else self generate.

 

[MP3Mike]

Another OEM recalling every EV they made, all ~6,400 of them in the US, because of a potential battery fire risk: Jaguar I-Pace Recalled Due To Potential Battery Fire Risk

They have already had 8 fires that they are aware of. But apparently those aren't big news, as I haven't seen reports of them.

They say it can be "mitigated" by on "Over-The-Air" update, but you have to go to the dealer to get it.

The new software will be installed via an over-the-air software update, though it will need to be performed at a Jaguar dealership. It will work to keep close tabs on the I-Pace's battery pack to ensure that it's not overheating. If the pack does get to the point that it could overheat, it will alert the driver with a number of warnings and limit charging capacity to 75 percent if it senses a potential fire risk.

So they are trying to do the same thing Chevy did with the Bolt, trying to avoid packs by just monitoring them. Hoping they make it past the warranty period. That didn't work out well for Chevy, will it for Jaguar?

Direct link to the recall: Recalls | NHTSA

 

[mongo]

Another OEM recalling every EV they made, all ~6,400 of them in the US, because of a potential battery fire risk: Jaguar I-Pace Recalled Due To Potential Battery Fire Risk

They have already had 8 fires that they are aware of. But apparently those aren't big news, as I haven't seen reports of them.

They say it can be "mitigated" by on "Over-The-Air" update, but you have to go to the dealer to get it.



So they are trying to do the same thing Chevy did with the Bolt, trying to avoid packs by just monitoring them. Hoping they make it past the warranty period. That didn't work out well for Chevy, will it for Jaguar?

Direct link to the recall: Recalls | NHTSA

Yeah.
After a year of investigation, they still don't have a root cause yet, so they are updating the software to catch warning signs early, throttle the pack, and get it to dealer for replacement.

On February 02, 2022, an investigation was initiated in the Product Safety and Compliance Committee (PSCC)
following reports of vehicle fire through JLRs critical concerns reporting process.
...
On May 18, 2023: Although the Engineering team had not made a determination of whether the HV battery pack assembly is defective and a cause of reported thermal overload conditions, the PSCC raised the issue to take a pre- emptive field action to reduce a possible risk. Out of an abundance of caution, the RDC decided to conduct a voluntary safety recall on all affected vehicles. The RDC agreed that absent of any determined end point, the scope of this issue is all I-PACE vehicles manufactured to date.
...
JLR has received 8 reports of vehicle fires in the US, reports were received on the following dates;
June 20, 2019
July 6, 2020
August 31, 2021
August 31, 2021
November 11, 2021
December 20, 2021
June 22, 2022
May 3, 202

Recalled vehicles will receive an update to the Battery Energy Control Module (BECM) software that will monitor the battery pack assembly operational status that indicates where the battery contains conditions which may lead to thermal overload condition. This software provides an enhanced level of driver warnings in relation to battery condition and where the software determines a risk exists, the High Voltage battery charging capacity is limited to 75%. The warning message and associated Owner Guide instruction directs the driver to take their vehicle to a Jaguar retailer for diagnosis and, as required, repair. The retailer will inspect and, if necessary, replace the affected battery module/pack. There will be no charge to the owners for this repair. Customers who have paid for a repair of this defect will be reimbursed by the Jaguar Land Rover reimbursement plan, subject to the usual terms and conditions.

 

[wdolson]

He said it again at the investor meeting. They aim to make profits on SC, because of course they do.

Believe it or not, that's Teslas goal.

The average is dumb, they get deals on power from some providers. My power company charges .05c a kwh, Tesla charges 31c for SC.

Is that residential rate for the entire day or just off peak? Ours is super low here because it's mostly hydro and it's $0.08/KWH (residential, flat rate 24/7)

But, it must cost a fair bit to put in new SC sites. Plus money must be spent to maintain the existing sites, run and maintain the backend software, etc.

Tesla also leases most sites so the owners of the property have to be paid.

Profitability for superchargers is a ways off. They also are trying to retire as many cars with free supercharging for life as possible. Most of us don't supercharge all that often, but some people with free supercharging are getting thousands of dollars worth of free miles a year.

 

[petit_bateau]

"This [Brexit] is a threat to .... the sustainability of our UK manufacturing operations" (Stellantis)

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/118270/pdf/

 

[RobStark]

World EV Sales Now 14% Of World Auto Sales - CleanTechnica

Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 70% in April 2023 compared to April 2022. There were 928,000 registrations, making it possibly the last month with fewer than one million sales per month ever for plugin electric vehicles. In the end, plugins represented 14% share of the overall auto...

cleantechnica.com

 

[RobStark]

GM starts production of Equinox EV