Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[marvinat0rz]

Loading up options (and rolled up from really deep ITM) the last weeks. Bought jan16 200 Call for $50, and jan16 300 Call for $23 today, I think this is cheap. Buying more if it keeps going down. I'm buying at my new margin account now. However I'm not quite sure I understand how the margin at IB is working. I have used 49k at margin, and still have 60k to use according to my account summary, and a buying power of 400k...???? But my hole account at IB is only worth $390 today, mostly TSLA and some solar. I'm thinking of liquidating my STL (oil shares) in Norway, but I'm waiting for the dividend to be paid out. Do any of you know if I may transfer my STL shares from Oslo Børs to IB, for better covering up my margin accout, without selling any TSLA, if Putin starts the world warIII?

Do you have any special reason for waiting with liquidating STL until the dividend? The dividend payment will be reflected in the stock price, so all else being equal there is no reason to wait except for tax reasons - but seeing as you're liquidating, you'll get hit with full taxation regardless.

Best of luck on your options plays, you certainly don't seem like you're easily spooked if you're going deep OTM at this point.

 

[Auzie]

Do you have any special reason for waiting with liquidating STL until the dividend? The dividend payment will be reflected in the stock price, so all else being equal there is no reason to wait except for tax reasons - but seeing as you're liquidating, you'll get hit with full taxation regardless.
.

If Wenche does direct shares transfer from one account to another, there is no need to sell STL unless that is the intention.

It just occurred to me (my slow thinking day) what STL is, very ironic hedge for TSLA. Might be an idea to hold both in the same account to reduce % margin. :wink:

 

[blakegallagher]

It seems that every article I read mentions that demand has peaked. As if it is not up for discussion and supported by facts. Recently it even seems that they are leaving off the "in the United States" part of the argument and just stating it as if general demand for the Model S is peaked. None of the articles mention the fact that Tesla is currently readying a second production line or the fact that per The Goldman Sachs note (and confirmed through DaveT's Investor relation contact) Tesla is currently producing near 700 cars per week. that puts them very near where they need to be to hit their guidance for the full year. Considering the second production line will be coming online in Q3 and Q4 They will either have to raise guidance or will just deliver way over guidance.

It is insane that anyone thinks US sales have peaked ... if you want to argue that the only real argument is "have US sales peaked with no traditional advertising" ... I also believe Tesla said they were not opening up many sales locations as they could open because they dont have the production to meet it. If someone remembers where they said that or if they didn't please let me know/correct me.

I have many options that are blood red right now but I believe since most of this was caused by FUD about demand that when they continue to exceed guidance and revise it upwards it will reverse itself just as fast.

 

[Jack6591]

Our emotional IQ flip flops and at and amazing rate. Trust me, nothing material has changed. There is an extraordinary volume of positive catalysts coming, forthwith.

 

[AlMc]

Our emotional IQ flip flops and at and amazing rate. Trust me, nothing material has changed. There is an extraordinary volume of positive catalysts coming, forthwith.

OK....I'm waiting:wink:

 

[justthateasy]

I wanted to post a chart in the other thread but my heart isn't quite up to it. I looked at my chart and everything about TSLA is broken and it's a runaway train staying in the downtrend. In a way, I feel like the post Q3 drop wasn't as bad as this. I'm actually expecting to see 185 or lower tomorrow and for 100% of my Q4 gains to vanish. I'm actually at a loss for words about this. Good luck tomorrow everyone.

 

[AlMc]

I wanted to post a chart in the other thread but my heart isn't quite up to it. I looked at my chart and everything about TSLA is broken and it's a runaway train staying in the downtrend. In a way, I feel like the post Q3 drop wasn't as bad as this. I'm actually expecting to see 185 or lower tomorrow and for 100% of my Q4 gains to vanish. I'm actually at a loss for words about this. Good luck tomorrow everyone.

Let us hope in this case that TSLA does not follow a technical chart. I will continue to buy small amounts on the way down if your analysis is correct to dollar cost average for what we all hope will be the next movement upward.

EDIT: I am placing orders for ATM calls (200) for May 9th, Sept and Jan15. I was going to buy more shares instead but I think it is about time for some positive movement, despite what tech/chart analysis has to say.
(Of course no 'weeklies as the market could go either way in the very short term. I may be crazy, but not THAT crazy :wink
Good luck all.

EDIT 10AM: Well, that strategy in the short term (since market open when the orders were filled) is looking bad! And I am crazy as the May 9th calls are considered 'weeklies'.....

 

[farzyness]

I got a buy order in @187 for common stock. Last gap that would need to be filled.

 

[ckessel]

TSLA is now worth less than it was just over 6 months ago. I don't think that's happened in a very long time aside from the flash crash when Rawlinson left.

 

[Calvin.K]

I hope the shorts think they can predict TSLA, because I had that some thought at the $40/share level last year and then it went so crazy after Q1 earnings 2013 that I have never been able to predict it since then.

 

[dalalsid]

I didnt think we'd see 190. If it keeps dropping I might have to scrounge up some money to buy more before Q1 earnings.

 

[c041v]

Beating continues until the knife catching stops.

...

 

[robbie380]

I'm long some for a bounce. Might be out here depending on how this thing hold. Still a lot of pressure on it.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

I feel this drop is unwarranted and driven by tax selling. The FUD about falling demand is flat out wrong. Feels like early Q1 last year all over again.

I booked some significant option profits after the Detroit motor show preannouncement and Q1 earnings call. I just put a quarter of those profits back in to June 210 calls at $13, anticipating a correction up into and after earnings.

My long term stock position initiated 2 years ago remains untouched.

 

[robbie380]

I feel this drop is unwarranted and driven by tax selling. The FUD about falling demand is flat out wrong. Feels like early Q1 last year all over again.

I booked some significant option profits after the Detroit motor show preannouncement and Q1 earnings call. I just put a quarter of those profits back in to June 210 calls at $13.

My long term stock position initiated 2 years ago remains untouched.

I felt the rise from 190 to 260 was unwarranted.

I'm still long for the moment though but keeping it tight.

 

[ckessel]

What really matters for me is the duration we spend at the depressed price. My Jan 2015 300s are down 60%. If the stock recovers in 2-3 months, I'm fine. If it recovers in 9 months, it's a complete loss.

 

[robbie380]

When do you buy Jan 15 300s?

 

[farzyness]

I got a buy order in @187 for common stock. Last gap that would need to be filled.

Well - my buy order executed. Let's see what happens!

 

[ckessel]

When do you buy Jan 15 300s?

Late March, the stock was about $220. But by the time the stock recovers, it'll have to recover significantly beyond that for me to break even.

 

[robbie380]

Late March, the stock was about $220. But by the time the stock recovers, it'll have to recover significantly beyond that for me to break even.

Sorry to hear that. Buying far out of the money options is a hard game to play at anytime because they are so expensive.