Tesla Motors posted for an addition to their team today (Architect for Gigafactory):
Careers | Tesla Motors
Long Tesla
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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
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Tesla Motors posted for an addition to their team today (Architect for Gigafactory):
Careers | Tesla Motors
Long Tesla
While he's the CEO at SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is President and COO and runs the company on a day to day basis. Tesla doesn't list a "President" position at all.
Congratulations to anyone who caught the dip under $200 and bought today. I could not keep a close eye on the market today so placed buy orders at $198 (just missed), 194 and 188 at about 10am. So, I basically missed on this opportunity.
I am. These are Jan 2016s, as late as I could get. I actually still have 3 of the 12 $500s I wrote, I could only buy back 9 of them before hitting my margin limit, and couldn't transfer in cash to cover it in time. If Tesla is at the same level on Monday or whenever the cash gets into the account, I'll probably end up buying the other 3 back.
I will probably sell 500 calls again later once we go back up a bit. I didn't intend to buy 300s or 400s all by themselves, because there's just so much premium on them, that's why I wrote the 500s at the same time.
Anyway, I sold some stock and LEAPs when we were around $250 to fund the purchase of these spreads, and got myself completely out of margin debit at the time, though now I'm back into it (but only about 10% I think of my total surplus purchasing power), so I'm feeling pretty good about this all. The idea was to increase my leverage a bit, while still aiming at my target price, which is $500 in a couple years. That's roughly the point at which I would become a Teslanaire. I've half considered selling *all* stock and replacing it with calls/spreads, but I'm a bit wary of the idea. Largely because I don't want to be in the tippy top tax bracket for 2014...
In the department of stopped clocks being right twice a day, I bought back a covered call (Jun 230) at ~199.5 this afternoon. My accidental brilliance may prove ephemeral if TSLA continues down farther. I'm actually expecting it to continue sliding until the unveiling of the production Model X or some other substantive catalyst. I have also bought LEAPs on the way down at 234 and 218. I'll keep buying in gradually and go all in (as far as I go with TSLA anyway) if it gets below $190.
thanks- you might have noticed- the bots typically test-drive the price down early in the morning. usually a good time to trade on the low side for the day on those other 3 buy backs (assuming we're not just going lower anyway of course)
marvinat0rz
Member
Whew, we crushed the NASDAQ today. Nice! So in relative terms, we just caught up with some of yesterday's losses.
Based on that statement, I infer that TSLA at $30 last year was the non-obvious play, then? It seemed pretty obvious to us groupthinkers back at the time, though. Wonder what kind of yacht I would have right now if I had shorted TSLA at $30? Well, I guess I wouldn't have had to pay so much in taxes this year. I don't see how perpetual negativity and doubt is any more objective than unbridled optimism.
Brysondad,
As to Elon being involved with Tesla. I keep a list of risk factors, there's about ten of them on it, and this is a top 3 item for me. Elon has said he will stay until Gen III is up and running. I've heard him say it several times in several contexts. Having watched him and Tesla extremely closely the past two years, I've learned to recognize a tone and phrasing Elon will use that has a striking track record of follow through. There are other items he will discuss where you can see he's leaving some ambiguity, and sounds less committed, and there are a couple of items we've seen Elon/Tesla not follow through. So Elon, of course, does not speak "gospel", but he leaves his strongest language and tone for items he is going to follow through. I say this based on observing past words and deeds. I have a very high confidence level he is stone cold committed to staying at Tesla through a successful launch of Gen III.
All that said, there's a considerable possibility Elon leaves Tesla 2018 or thereafter for SpaceX. I get the sense he'd pick SpaceX over Tesla, and any investor is wise to account for this possibility. of course, something could happen to Elon before 2018. As mentioned he'd 42, which helps, but it is a risk factor. I'm not an actuary, but my gut says under 3% (accounting for all the people that really don't want to see Tesla succeed).
Finally as to splitting time between SpaceX and Tesla, over the past two years Elon consistently said 50/50 split of his time between the two. I saw him recently asked again about how he divides his time, I believe it was his Q&A in Norway. He said it's been more like 60 or 70% Tesla of late (I believe he said the past year). yes, I did see the 60 minutes piece where they described 3 days at SpaceX headquarters and 2 days at Tesla HQ. That may be so, but that does not mean he's dividing his time that way... clearly he does not need to physically be at Tesla to work on it. And, of course, 60 minutes may have gotten it wrong or oversimplified it... they also said he spends his weekends with this kids. I doubt there's more than a dozen days a year that Elon doesn't put some hours into these companies, let alone every Saturday and Sunday.
as to your 5 items, I'll just add some thoughts on the first 2, you've had plenty of replies on these.
1. China demand. I highly recommend this thread on TMC specifically on the topic, China Market situation and outlook
read through it, pose this question to them. while anyone saying anything about demand in China has a somewhat speculative nature, my recollection of that thread was a level of digging and collecting information for their speculation unlike anything else I've seen on the web. while these may not be all verifiable sources, off the top of my head, I recall, 1) reports of store visits in Beijing and observing store traffic 2) feedback from Beijing store employees on orders (of course, again, taking poster's word), 3) monitoring and links to popular Chinese websites, message boards, 4) self-reporting of placement of orders, 4) links to articles, comments about positive reception of Tesla's pricing strategy, 5) descriptions of the stunning praise of at least one apparently very influential high tech leader.
add to this the fact that the Mercedes S class sold over 30K units/year in China at a starting cost of $200,000 vs. $120,000 for the Model S, and while not a certainty, I think a very strong showing in China is more than blind speculation.
2) Model X, timeline, falcon wing doors: timeline... Tesla slipped by about 2 months on the Model S. while ultimately not making any difference, at the time this was watched with much scrutiny. there was some justification for this... Tesla had to ramp up without running out of cash. Model X is a completely different story. Slipping a couple of months will mean nothing to the ultimate success of the company as they are not in jeopardy of running out of cash. As to the year or so delay we've already seen in the Model X. Why not? they are supply constrained on the Model S, why not take one's time ensuring the best execution on product number two when doing so will have 0 impact on sales; that is, if there's only supply to deliver 35K Model S/X this year, 35K Model S or 20K Model S/15K Model X has no benefit, but sacrifices the opportunity to make the Model X that much better.
there is some risk on execution with the Model X. it's quite important to deliver a car as winning as the Model S in order to solidify brand image and sales. it's been about 2 years since the prototype was revealed, and we know there are some substantial changes being made... we just don't know what they are. this could be a positive, but, of course, what Tesla sees as improvements carries some risk of not matching overall consumer sentiment. we're likely to see something in the next 4 months or so, and I do see it as a bit of a risk. while I'm confident the performance will be there, style is subjective, and I don't take for granted that they nail this one.
as to Falcon wing doors. added complexity, yes. just for sizzle like the door handles, no. Tesla has repeatedly said the very practical reason for the falcon wing doors, to allow markedly better access to back rows, including the ability to stand up in the back of the car. I've not had to deal with putting kids in their car seats, but apparently it's a pain in most vehicles. the Falcon wing doors have a functional purpose. it's also worth mentioning, that they are designed to actually lesson the amount of space you need on either side of the car to get in and out. IIRC, if you can get your body between your car and the one parked beside you that is sufficient room for the doors to open.
As to Elon being involved with Tesla. I keep a list of risk factors, there's about ten of them on it, and this is a top 3 item for me. Elon has said he will stay until Gen III is up and running. I've heard him say it several times in several contexts. Having watched him and Tesla extremely closely the past two years, I've learned to recognize a tone and phrasing Elon will use that has a striking track record of follow through. There are other items he will discuss where you can see he's leaving some ambiguity, and sounds less committed, and there are a couple of items we've seen Elon/Tesla not follow through. So Elon, of course, does not speak "gospel", but he leaves his strongest language and tone for items he is going to follow through. I say this based on observing past words and deeds. I have a very high confidence level he is stone cold committed to staying at Tesla through a successful launch of Gen III.
All that said, there's a considerable possibility Elon leaves Tesla 2018 or thereafter for SpaceX. I get the sense he'd pick SpaceX over Tesla, and any investor is wise to account for this possibility. of course, something could happen to Elon before 2018. As mentioned he'd 42, which helps, but it is a risk factor. I'm not an actuary, but my gut says under 3% (accounting for all the people that really don't want to see Tesla succeed).
Finally as to splitting time between SpaceX and Tesla, over the past two years Elon consistently said 50/50 split of his time between the two. I saw him recently asked again about how he divides his time, I believe it was his Q&A in Norway. He said it's been more like 60 or 70% Tesla of late (I believe he said the past year). yes, I did see the 60 minutes piece where they described 3 days at SpaceX headquarters and 2 days at Tesla HQ. That may be so, but that does not mean he's dividing his time that way... clearly he does not need to physically be at Tesla to work on it. And, of course, 60 minutes may have gotten it wrong or oversimplified it... they also said he spends his weekends with this kids. I doubt there's more than a dozen days a year that Elon doesn't put some hours into these companies, let alone every Saturday and Sunday.
as to your 5 items, I'll just add some thoughts on the first 2, you've had plenty of replies on these.
1. China demand. I highly recommend this thread on TMC specifically on the topic, China Market situation and outlook
read through it, pose this question to them. while anyone saying anything about demand in China has a somewhat speculative nature, my recollection of that thread was a level of digging and collecting information for their speculation unlike anything else I've seen on the web. while these may not be all verifiable sources, off the top of my head, I recall, 1) reports of store visits in Beijing and observing store traffic 2) feedback from Beijing store employees on orders (of course, again, taking poster's word), 3) monitoring and links to popular Chinese websites, message boards, 4) self-reporting of placement of orders, 4) links to articles, comments about positive reception of Tesla's pricing strategy, 5) descriptions of the stunning praise of at least one apparently very influential high tech leader.
add to this the fact that the Mercedes S class sold over 30K units/year in China at a starting cost of $200,000 vs. $120,000 for the Model S, and while not a certainty, I think a very strong showing in China is more than blind speculation.
2) Model X, timeline, falcon wing doors: timeline... Tesla slipped by about 2 months on the Model S. while ultimately not making any difference, at the time this was watched with much scrutiny. there was some justification for this... Tesla had to ramp up without running out of cash. Model X is a completely different story. Slipping a couple of months will mean nothing to the ultimate success of the company as they are not in jeopardy of running out of cash. As to the year or so delay we've already seen in the Model X. Why not? they are supply constrained on the Model S, why not take one's time ensuring the best execution on product number two when doing so will have 0 impact on sales; that is, if there's only supply to deliver 35K Model S/X this year, 35K Model S or 20K Model S/15K Model X has no benefit, but sacrifices the opportunity to make the Model X that much better.
there is some risk on execution with the Model X. it's quite important to deliver a car as winning as the Model S in order to solidify brand image and sales. it's been about 2 years since the prototype was revealed, and we know there are some substantial changes being made... we just don't know what they are. this could be a positive, but, of course, what Tesla sees as improvements carries some risk of not matching overall consumer sentiment. we're likely to see something in the next 4 months or so, and I do see it as a bit of a risk. while I'm confident the performance will be there, style is subjective, and I don't take for granted that they nail this one.
as to Falcon wing doors. added complexity, yes. just for sizzle like the door handles, no. Tesla has repeatedly said the very practical reason for the falcon wing doors, to allow markedly better access to back rows, including the ability to stand up in the back of the car. I've not had to deal with putting kids in their car seats, but apparently it's a pain in most vehicles. the Falcon wing doors have a functional purpose. it's also worth mentioning, that they are designed to actually lesson the amount of space you need on either side of the car to get in and out. IIRC, if you can get your body between your car and the one parked beside you that is sufficient room for the doors to open.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Interesting debate that got stirred up!
I think there's a myth that most everyone here is recklessly enthusiastic, buying options, or both.
It's untrue. Plenty of people here are long-term investors.
TSLA is not a stock for those with no risk tolerance! I've suggested on many occasions that people NOT bet the whole farm on TSLA.
Keeping cash on hand for emergencies and a core of index funds in a retirement account is key to sleeping at night while making risky investments. Anyone investing in individual shares of a relatively new company should make sure they don't lose everything if the company goes bust!
I think there's a myth that most everyone here is recklessly enthusiastic, buying options, or both.
It's untrue. Plenty of people here are long-term investors.
TSLA is not a stock for those with no risk tolerance! I've suggested on many occasions that people NOT bet the whole farm on TSLA.
Keeping cash on hand for emergencies and a core of index funds in a retirement account is key to sleeping at night while making risky investments. Anyone investing in individual shares of a relatively new company should make sure they don't lose everything if the company goes bust!
mitch672
Active Member
Sure, but the "Professor" could make anything out of Bamboo and Coconuts
We are all showing our ages here
Professor was original Elon Musk. No electricity but they put on shows/had a record player and lighting!Sure, but the "Professor" could make anything out of Bamboo and Coconuts
We are all showing our ages here
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